INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: This risks a down-up day
Resistance: 121.72-93 122.15-20 122.40 122.62
Support: 120.91 120.70 120.46-55 120.00-20
MAIN ANALYSIS: Snafu… I felt we needed another rally but not from 118.41… Thus, the direct follow-through after the BOJ announcement obviously came as a surprise. As today begins I feel we need an initial correction back to the 120.46-55 area. From there we should see a 3-wave rally that needs to reach the 121.72-75 area (allow for as high as 121.93). Here we will need a correction of around 70 points (approx). From here we will need another 3-wave rally that (depending on where in the range between 121.72-93 stalls) could stall as low as 122.15-20 or as high as 122.40-65. Therefore, make sure that the development I have described develops in order to look for bearish reversal indications. This should be the final high before daily losses resume.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break above 122.70 could see price extend to 122.85-90 and potentially 123.15-25 and max 123.40-50.
A direct break below 120.40 would see direct losses. There aren't too many obvious support areas but take care at 119.70, 119.10-30 and 118.95.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
1st February: Well, as described above, the second leg higher was far more direct than expected but should complete a 3-wave move from between 122.15 and 122.62. Take care, there are higher levels but I feel the follow-through will be limited. Because this has developed in 3 waves there is a risk of a longer sideways consolidation (triangle?) but I cannot rule out a more direct resumption of losses.