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Daily Forecast For USD/JPY: January 15, 2013

ByIan Copsey
Published 01/15/2013, 03:59 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
USD/JPY
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NOTE
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BIAS:

Cautiously I feel this will go lower today.

Resistance: 89.67 89.93 90.06 90.37
Support: 89.36 89.08 88.70-75 88.52

MAIN ANALYSIS: Losses seen yesterday to 89.08 but followed by a firm reversal higher back to 89.57 this morning. I have been working with the structure from the 86.83 low and feel that a deeper correction lower is still required, but less excessive than thought before. Thus, while the 89.57-67 area remains intact a move below 89.36 would extend losses back to the 89.08 low and probably the 88.70-75 area. Take care here as this could cause a further pullback higher. However, the final low (whether today or tomorrow) should be down in the 88.32-42 area. From here we should see the rally resume.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break below 88.25 will suggest a deeper correction lower and would extend losses towards the 86.83 low… initially...

Only a direct break above 89.67 would extend the rally to 90.06 at least but note the stronger 90.54 projection.

MEDIUM-TERM ANALYSIS:
15th January: We have reached 89.59… and broken marginally… but the structure from the 83.86 low doesn't seem to confirm this as a major high. We do have signs of bearish divergences in the daily and hourly charts but not really in the 4-hour.

Equally, it is stretching the extension from the 79.07 low... Thus I am considering the potential for the entire rally from the 77.12 low may have been misjudged and if so we shall need to still allow for further gains to 90.54 and possibly 91.15... This will need the 88.32-37 area to support.

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