INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: This appears to be stuck between two scenarios
Resistance: 0.7151 0.7165 0.7175 0.7194
Support: 0.7120-25 0.7097 0.7070-75 0.7035
MAIN ANALYSIS: The rally did end up short - not reaching 0.7182 which then saw losses to 0.7084. It wasn't the ideal retracement - which was at 0.7070-80. This fell short of satisfying alternation. This generates two alternatives:
- If we see an early push higher from 0.7122 to above 0.7151 but stalling around the 0.7165 high, then we should see a deep correction to the rally from 0.7084 - at least 66.7%-85.4%. From there a second rally can develop to the ideal target around 0.7194-0.7231. This should be the high and therefore we'll see the resumption of losses.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: The alternative is a second dip to the 0.7070-80 area followed by a rally to the 0.7190 - 0.7231 area before losses. Only below 0.7060 would trigger direct losses.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
14th September: The expected gains have been developing but seem unlikely to reach the 0.7265 area and I suspect now that the high will come around the 0.7200-35 area… From here we should see losses back below 0.6908.
Only above 0.7270 would concern - but still keep an eye on momentum just in case we're seeing a deeper correction.