Daily Commodities Analysis: Oil and Gold

CL2G

Oil rose for the first time in four days on renewed concern that Middle East tension will disrupt supply and as equities advanced, raising economic optimism.  Crude gained 0.9 percent as the European Union moved up a meeting to discuss an oil embargo against Iran by a week to Jan. 23 and Iran announced another step in its nuclear program. Crude for February delivery climbed 93 cents, or 0.9 percent to settle at $102.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. West Texas Intermediate oil traded on the Nymex has surged 20 percent in the past three months. West Texas Intermediate climbed as much as 2.1 percent as German Chancellor Angela Merkel prepared to meet International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde today in Berlin. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can’t get involved in a dispute between the U.S. and Iran over sanctions, according to Venezuela’s oil minister Rafael Ramirez. President Barack Obama is prepared to use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon if sanctions and diplomacy fail. With no doubts, Iran is still the main reason why WTI surpassed the $100 level.  Meanwhile, Nigeria, an OPEC member, produced an average 2.2 million barrels a day of crude in December. It is the fifth-largest supplier of oil to the U.S. At least 90 percent is pumped by Shell, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Total SA and Eni SpA in joint ventures with state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp.



GOLD

Comex February gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session solidly higher and hit a fresh two-week high. The key outside markets were in a bullish posture for the precious metals as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. February gold last traded up $25.40 at $1,633.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $21.70 an ounce at $1,633.25. Investor risk appetite was on the upswing Tuesday and the precious metals benefitted, acting like a risk asset on this given day. The gold market has in recent weeks acted more like a risk asset and followed the raw commodity market pack in closer fashion but it’s still my bias that the New Year will find gold also trading more like a safe-haven asset during times of keener uncertainty in the market place. February gold futures prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-week high. Gold prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart but now just barely. More gains would likely negate that near-term price downtrend. Bulls' next upside technical breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the last reaction high on the daily bar chart, located at $1,643.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,562.50.