EUR/USD:
EUR/USD:" title="EUR/USD:" width="715" height="518">EUR/USD:
1.3138
Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend
Outlook:
EUR declined below 1.3100 and thus our long idea was stopped out last week with a decent profit. Now, the daily chart is negative to neutral with the prices still below the 100-day moving average. And the daily oscillators point lower. So, our trend-following methodology favors a short position here. But the wave count still suggests gains twd 1.3520/1.3720 area. In such situation with conflicting signals, it is reasonalbe to stay out.
Strategy: The hypothetical long from 1.2900 was closed at 1.3100 with 200 pts profit. Stay out.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USDGBP/USDGBP/USD: 1.5821
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
Based on the ST price pattern we turned short last Monday near 1.5770. The decline from the early Feb low however was corrective and then a sharp rally occured later last week. Still, as long as below 1.5945, the Short-Term outlook is negative to neutral, so one can favor the short side here. But only as long as below 1.5945. A break abv there will be bullish for at least 1.6150.
On the downside, below 1.5650 will confirm our bearishness and weakness twd 1.5260 will be expected....
Strategy: Holding short from 1.5780 is favored. Stop=1.5950. Target=1.5280.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY: 79.53
Short-Term Trend: uptrend
Outlook:
A surprising rise abv 78.30 occured last week and with this rise, the wave count has become a mess on the daily chart. The current strong rise is either wave C of a Flat pattern from the Oct 2011 low, or is the beginning of a new trend higher. We don't know what is going on for sure, but as long as the prices stay abv 78.00, the odds favor the long side. And gains twd 81.50 are expected in the coming week.
On the downside, firm break below 78.00 negates, and risks losses back twd 76.00...
Strategy: Longs favored here against 77.80. Target=83.80