Crude prices jumped after rumors that China was preparing for a full reopening in March 2023. Oil is looking bullish again as it did a decent job holding onto gains despite a strong reversal with the U.S. dollar. Risks to energy supplies remain elevated after reports that Iran was planning an attack on targets that include Saudi Arabia and Northern Iraq.
The news was not all bullish for crude prices as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow lowered its GDP forecast from 3.1% to 2.6%. The global economic outlook remains very fragile to a swathe of risks and that should keep crude demand forecasts vulnerable to getting slashed, but for now, energy traders remain fixated on how tight the market remains.
Gold
Gold prices pared gains after the JOLTS report rattled December Fed downshift calls. Yields popped and the dollar turned positive after September job openings came in almost a million over the consensus estimate. Gold’s rally was gaining momentum on hopes that the Fed was going to deliver a 75-basis-point hike and a dovish press conference. After today’s labor data, it seems the press conference might have to be hawkish.
Gold has been trying to stabilize over the last few weeks and that could get tested as the latest data supports the idea that the Fed might need to raise their inflation forecasts.
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