The last 2 months have been a rough and tumble life for Crude Oil. With a break of rising support it hit its 100 day SMA for the first time since September, It settled there for a couple of weeks, making a double bottom then rose. It finished June at nearly 4 year highs, quite a turn around. But that peak completed a bearish Shark pattern and Crude Oil dropped back quickly.
It looked to have found support at the prior rising channel and then continued lower, reconnecting with the 200 day SMA last week. This retraced 61.8% of the pattern, the second target on the pullback, and reset momentum indicators lower. I wrote at the time this would be a good place to reverse. But it did nothing, just holding at the 61.8% retracement. That was until Wednesday, when it started to bubble up again.
The move Wednesday brought it back to the 50% retracement and the 100 day SMA. Momentum has shifted, with the RSI rounding up at the mid line and the MACD leveling in positive territory. Crude Oil prices are now confirming a higher low. The Bollinger Bands® are tightening, often a precursor to a move. And a Measured Move would give a target to the upside to about 78.25. No guarantees in this life, but Crude Oil looks to be ready for the next leg higher.
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