Last week, I concluded: The market is trying to break out, but breadth isn’t improving. This condition often results in a choppy market. If the market can break out then bulls want to see breadth improve or we risk a good size decline when the rally ends.
This week, it’s the same. Longer term indicators are trying to move into positive territory, but short term indicators and measures of breadth aren’t cooperating. My core indicators, which are intermediate term, chopped around a bit, but are still on a trajectory to go positive if the market can break decisively higher.
Another disconcerting breadth indicator is the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are below their 200 day moving average. This indicator is falling fast without much price damage, all while happening within a few percent of all time highs. If the market turns down from here I suspect the decline will be large. On the other hand, this is a condition that can lead to a buying surge if the market breaks higher because investors will be looking for value as the market moves up.
Conclusion
Another week, same story. The market is trying to break out, but breadth isn’t improving. This condition often results in a choppy market. If the market can break out then bulls want to see breadth improve or we risk a good size decline when the rally ends.