Silver prices recover, copper prices bounce back
Global financial market uncertainty continues with ongoing economic concerns over the European economies. The current market scenario seems like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears. The slightest of the positive news leads to risk appetite, whereas any negative news creates caution in the markets. As we approach the weekend, sentiments remain weak and commodity markets are expected to take cues from economic news and developments.
The Euro recovered from its lows as optimism grew that the European policymakers will be able to resolve the crisis. The currency also strengthened on reports that the European Central Bank (ECB) bought Italian and Spanish securities, following which lending costs declined.
Spot gold prices witnessed gains of around 0.7 percent in today’s trading session mainly on the back of a weaker dollar. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1731/oz and was trading at the level of $1729/oz till 4.45 pm IST. On the MCX Gold December contract rose 0.8 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs.28689/10 gms till 4.45 pm IST today.
Silver prices also recovered today and are currently trading around 1.7 percent higher (till 4.45pm IST). Revival in market sentiments, upside in base metals coupled with dollar weakness supported upside in the white metal.
Copper prices have bounced back as market sentiments reversed on the back of narrowing Italian bond spread which eased worries with respect to the Euro Zone for the time-being. But we feel that long term economic risks persist and this return of risk appetite may be short-lived. On the LME, Copper prices recovered from the day’s low of $7380/tonne and are currently trading around $7552.25/tonne.
Nymex crude oil increased marginally by 0.1 percent today on the back of expectations that European leaders will come with an agreement to fight debt crisis. Prices are currently trading around $98.87/bbl till 4:45pm which increased also taking cues from a weaker dollar. On the MCX, oil prices gained by 0.1 percent and were hovering around Rs.5054/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5067/bbl till 4:45pm today.
Outlook
We expect gold prices to trade higher as a weaker dollar will support upside in the yellow metal. Silver prices are also expected to trade higher on account of concerns over the Europe ease but any negative news with respect to the Euro Zone could trigger downside pressure in silver prices today.
Copper prices are expected to trade with a positive bias as market sentiments have improved. But the risk to the downside remains in the form of any negative development in the European economies.
Crude oil prices are expected to rise on account of expected decline in inventories due to reversal in direction of the Seaway Pipeline, hopes of rise in demand during the winter season and on easing worries over Europe.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base metals edge lower in unison with weak global shares
Deepening worries with respect to Euro Zone debt concerns exerted downside pressure on the base metals pack in yesterday’s trade.
Additionally, weak sentiments in the global markets coupled with strength in the US dollar also acted as a negative factor for metals on Thursday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned further losses on the domestic platform yesterday.
Copper
Copper was the worst performer on Thursday, as the metal declined almost 4 percent on the LME and around 2.5 percent on the MCX.
Dollar strength and rise in risk aversion in the global markets due to Europe’s concerns exerted pressure on the red metal prices yesterday.
On the MCX Copper touched an intra-day low of Rs381/kg and closed at Rs382/kg on Thursday. Japan’s copper cable shipments increase 3 pct (y-o-y) in Oct.
According to the data from the Japanese Electric Wire and Cable Makers' Association, Japan’s copper wire and cable shipments increased by 3 percent from a year earlier to 60,700 tonnes in October and was up from 59,171 tonnes in September.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Crude oil slumps on Euro debt concerns
Nymex crude oil declined sharply by 3.7 percent yesterday, taking cues from increasing concern over Europe debt crisis.
Additionally, a stronger dollar also exerted further downside pressure on oil prices. Crude oil closed at $98.8/bbl after touching an intra-day low of $98.28/bbl on Thursday.
On the MCX, oil prices declined by more than 2 percent and closed at Rs.5031/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.5007/bbl yesterday.
Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices rose more than 3 percent on Thursday taking cues from less than expected rise in US inventories.
Gas prices touched an intra-day high of 3.479/mbtu and closed at $3.451/mmbtu in yesterday’s trading session. On the MCX, prices gained by 1.3 percent and closed at Rs.174.3/mmbtu on Thursday.
EIA Inventories Data
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly natural gas inventory yesterday which indicated that the inventories increased less than expected by 19 billion cubic feet (bcf) to 3.85 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 11th November.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Precious metals settle lower on firm US dollar
Spot gold prices came under pressure and declined sharply by 2.4 percent on Thursday mainly on the back of dollar strength.
The yellow metal prices touched an intra-day low of $1709/oz and ended its trading session at the level of $1718/oz yesterday.
On the MCX, gold December contract declined around 1.9 percent on Thursday and touched an intra-day low of Rs28,272/10gm.
Depreciation in the Indian Rupee resisted further losses on the domestic bourses yesterday.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose sharply by 1 percent from the previous session to a three-month high of 1,289.46 tonnes on 17th November 2011.
Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices coupled with dollar strength, spot silver prices declined sharply by almost 6 percent on Thursday.
Silver being an industrial metal also took cues from downside in base metals too which led further downside in the white metal prices. MCX Silver December contract traded lower by 5.4 percent and touched an intra-day low of Rs53,728/kg yesterday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base metals settle lower on global economic concerns
Industrial metals trend have been really wild in the recent past, in other word we could say these metals are more prone towards ongoing global economic activities and disturbed market dynamics.
To be précised we are seeing a very mixed trend on metal prices. Metal prices which were seen trading higher during Asia and Europe, all lost their gains and ended on a negative note. The equity performance across the globe are also playing a major role.
The U.S equities ended lower by more than one per cent and that prompted metals to trade lower. Moreover, European nations bond auction by Spain and France had severely negative impact on most of the asset classes and here we have noticed fall on metals too.
The 10 year bond yields of Spain and France stood at 7.088 and 3.82 per cent respectively. In fact oil prices also tumbled that pulled metals to trade lower during US session.
Today morning each of the metals have already shown hefty movement and after making intraday lows in China/Shanghai and LME/London now they are all recovering, may be upturn could be short lived and again selling pressure built up.
The Asian equities are currently trading lower however going ahead equities might revive as euro looks slightly positive ahead German PPI data for the month of October. Nevertheless, metals are likely to remain fragile.
There are no major data expected from US today except leading indicator which is marginally improving. In fact no major activities are taking place from the mining sector so the price actions are mostly driven by market factors.
Looking at the above situations we believe metals to trade mixed for the day however, little selling pressure could be noticed.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices declined by 2.92 per cent along with lower cancelled warrant ratios suggesting the bearish trend is intact.
There is no such major activities from industry however, in the future exchange the OI and Volume have been poor.
The spread between two future contracts is around 0.90 paisa and likely to stay stable in the near term.
Copper
Lower cancelled warrants are not allowing this metals to recover, in fact pushed prices to trade lower.
Cancelled warrants are still hovering below six per cent and likely to continue as the spot activities are still poor.
The spread between November and February future is around Rs. 5 and likely to shrink in the near term.
Lead
Lead prices also fell along with other metals trend. However, cancelled warrants are seen improving suggesting fall could be limited.
However, market dynamics pressure may remain on this commodity as well.
The spread between two contracts are still managing at Rs. 1.00 and likely to stay stable.
Nickel
Nickel prices traded marginally lower and among the metals nickel fell the least. This could be because of sudden spike in cancelled warrants ratio which increased to around 5 per cent suggesting short term demand could push this commodity to move higher.
Time spread between two contracts is at Rs. 7 and slowly the spread should widen in the short term.
Zinc
Although this metal is moving along with other metal complex but the trend looks less bearish and prices on yesterday recovered by 2.78 and 1.28 on LME and MCX respectively.
Cancelled warrant ratio is slowly drifting lower indicating slower pace of decline in stocks or even build-up might be witnessed. However, cancelled warrant ratios sustaining above 5.50 to 6.00 per cent should keep the metal on the higher side.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX rm seed declines on profit booking
Mustard seed prices marginally declined across futures platform as prices were subjected to minor correction on previous rally.
Overall sowing progress is still lagging in compared to last year but has improved from last week.
Delayed cotton harvesting in fee regions has affected are of mustard in the current crop year.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India soy complex drops on weekly export sales data
Soybean prices declined in on Thursday both Indian market and CBOT markets as crushing margin in India declined while at CBOT weekly export sales was better than last week however it is still lower compared to last week.
Soy oil prices erased all the gains towards the closing as palm oil prices decreased due to corrections on previous rally.
Sharp decline in crude oil prices prompted the soy oil prices at CBOT to follow the losses as the bio diesel demand for soy oil would be at stake on falling crude oil prices.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd
NCDEX wheat trades higher on firm spot demand
Wheat futures traded positive on Thursday. Regular demand across the markets along with weak sowing progress of wheat in Uttar Pradesh supported the prices to trade higher.
Lean season for arrivals also influenced the positive movement of prices. Prices across the physical markets had gained from Rs.1210 to Rs.1220 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India maize settles higher on fresh buying
Maize futures traded positive on Thursday. Traders took advantage of earlier losses and went for buying at lower price levels which supported the prices to trade higher.
Arrivals in Nizamabad physical markets had declined from 2000 bags to 1000 bags which supported the gains.
Prices across the physical markets gained from Rs.1045 to Rs.1050 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX guar seed weakens on fresh arrivals
Guar seed and gum futures traded downside on Thursday. Fresh arrivals in both Jodhpur and Bikaner physical market pressurized the prices to decline during the day.
Arrivals in Jodhpur physical markets had been around 1 lakh bags (1 bag=100 kg). Weak demand fir guar gum also supported the downtrend.
Prices across the physical markets had declined from Rs.4350 per quintal to Rs.4300 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX chana edges higher on limited stocks
Chana futures traded positive on Thursday. Good demand across the markets and lower supplies supported the chana prices to trade higher.
Traders took advantage of earlier losses and went for buying at lower price levels which supported the gains.
Weak sowing progress of chana in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh influenced the prices to trade positive.
Prices across the physical markets were stable at Rs.3550 per quintal. Gradual decline in stock position also supported the uptrend.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX chilli ends higher on fresh buying
Chilli prices witnessed smart recovery on previous huge losses on Thursday.
However, overall trend at spot market remained down due to huge arrivals along with weak demand.
Therefore, futures shaded most of its gains towards the closing and ended on marginally positive note.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX jeera weakens on subdued export demand
Jeera futures continued the bearish trend o sluggish domestic and export demand.
Higher arrivals along with good sowing progress in major growing regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat pressurized the prices.
Thus on cues from falling trend at spot market futures also traded down.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX turmeric settles lower on arrival pressure
Turmeric prices extended the down trend on reduced demand across the spot markets.
Previous rally in prices resulted in sudden rise in arrivals which pulled down the prices. Spot prices at Erode market witnessed a fall of Rs. 200- 300 per quintal.
Therefore on cues from spot futures also traded down.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX pepper declines on fresh selling
Pepper prices continued the usual volatility on prevailing uncertainty in prices trend.
Futures started the day on flat note but later on resumed down trend on fresh selling on previous gains.
Most of the small traders are staying away from market as prices are not moving inline with the fundamentals.
Therefore, after witnessing volatility on speculative activities futures ended the day in red.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India turmeric slumps on selling pressure
Turmeric Futures continued to trade lower due to selling by the market participants and settled 1.37% down on Thursday. However near month futures continued to trade higher and settled near upper freeze of 4% yesterday.
There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%. This is likely to provide support to the prices.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,500 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 12,000 bags on Thursday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India jeera finishes up on fresh buying
Turmeric Futures continued to trade lower due to selling by the market participants and settled 1.37% down on Thursday. However near month futures continued to trade higher and settled near upper freeze of 4% yesterday.
There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%. This is likely to provide support to the prices.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,500 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 12,000 bags on Thursday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India pepper falls on long liquidation
Pepper Futures witnessed long liquidation at higher levels and settled 0.28% lower on Thursday. Prices in Spot however settled 0.08% higher due to increased offtakes. Reports that pepper crop in 2011-12 might fall below last year level of 48,000 tonnes is supporting pepper prices. It expected to be in the range of 42-44 thousand tonnes.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper will also support prices.
Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year. Carryover stocks of pepper with Vietnam till commencement of fresh arrivals in March are projected to be around 15,000 tonnes. (Source: Pepper Trade Board)
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,625 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl $7,200/tonne was quoting its pepper at $7,325 per tonne (f.o.b).
Indonesian and Brazil Asta grade is being offered at $7,200 and $7,450/tonne respectively.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 export of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt. Exports from Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have decreased, while exports from Vietnam and India increased.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Thursday stood at 5 tonnes as compared to 6 tonnes on Wednesday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 8 tonnes.
Production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be 43 thousand tonnes according to the market sources a decline of 5% as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is declined by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice for 2010-11 was around 1.15 lakh tonnes. Pepper production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX soybean declines on profit booking
NCDEX December soybean futures ended slightly lower on Thursday on account of profit taking and weak soybean futures at CBOT. However, oilseeds complex is firm due to improved demand from China due to easing monetary policies to spur economic growth. China is planning to more US soybean to increase their stock reserve. According to executives with a state grain processing and trading company, China bought six cargoes (500,000 metric tonnes) of soybeans from the U.S. The move is part of its plan to buy 2 million tons of soybeans.
As per 49th All India Convention on Oilseeds, oils Trade and Industry which was organized by COIIT and hosted by SOPA on November 06, 2001 (Sunday). COIIT estimates, India soybean output in Kharif 2011 at 115 lakh tonnes against 95 lakh tonnes last year.
USDA’s monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month.
Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX December RM Seed futures ended in red on account of profit taking and higher sowing acreage till date. Area under Mustard seed in the last year stood around 7.2 million ha compared to 6.4 million ha in 2009-10 seaosn. Rajasthan government has targeted mustard acreage in 2011-12 season at 30 lakh hectares compared to 24.9 lakh ha in 2010-11 season. As on 15th November, sowing has been completed on 78 percent of the area with total area covered so far standing around 23.55 lakh ha compare to 22.10 lakh ha same period last year.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX December Refined Soy oil futures traded higher on 4th consecutive trading sessions as improved demand coupled with supply concern of palm oil due to heavy rains in Indonesia and Malaysia. Better export figures of palm oil during the first 15 days of this month also provided support to the prices.
As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-15 rose 11.6% from a month earlier to 802,917 metric tons.
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports:
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010.
However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India sugar extended uptrend on delayed cane crushing
Sugar futures continued to trade firm for the fourth consecutive session of the week on re the previous day and settled 2.77% higher on Wednesday on reports of lower sugar recovery till date in Maharashtra as compared to last year. Crushing in Uttar Pradesh has been delayed led by dispute over cane price. This is also supporting sugar prices. Decision on the sugar exports has been deferred till November 21, 2011.
So far 116 mills in Maharatsra are operating out of over 160 expected to produce, and have churned out 311,000 tonnes of sugar compared with 390,000 tonnes a year ago.(source: Reuters)
Further, reports that the Empowered Group of ministers may consider fresh Sugar exports on 21st November are likely to provide support to the prices.
ICE Raw Sugar futures and LIFFE settled 1.96% and 1.04% down on Thursday with sustained concerns of Euro debt crisis. Possibility of decision on exports of sugar from India is also weighing on the prices.
However, buying by Malaysia coupled with issuance of import quota by Mexico may lend support to the international prices.
Brazil sugar exports down 17% Y-Y in October 2011. Brazil exported 2.55 million tonnes of sugar in the month of October 2011 on account of less cane and sugar output.
Domestic Sugar updates
Cane output in Maharashtra is expected to rise to 82.5 mn tn during 2011-12 from 80.3 mn tn last year, while sugar output is likely to increase about 2.5% to 9.3 mn tn.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
According to UNICA, Sugar production in Brazil's center-south in the second half of Oct dipped 23.5 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar output totaled 1.47 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier. Eighty-nine out of the 310 existing mills in the region had concluded crushing by Nov. 1.
China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full year likely to be issued around October 10.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India chana to edge higher on extended buying
Chana futures extended gains of the previous day and settled 1.22 % higher on Thursday on account of improved buying at the support levels. Spot prices however ended 0.22% marginally down yesterday on account of lacklustre trades at the domestic mandis.
There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are providing support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 45.07 lakh hectares as on November 11th 2011 as compared to 36.86 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
The biggest jump has been in the area under gram in Madhya Pradesh (1.29 million hectares, up 80 per cent more than last year) and Rajasthan (13.33 lakh hectares, up 48 per cent). Together, they account for fourfifth of the gram produced in the country. Overall, acreage of all pulses, which also includes lentil and peas apart from gram, in these two states is almost 59 per cent and 65 per cent more than last year. (Source: Business Standard)
Government announced Support price for Rabi crops on 25th October 2011. Chana MSP has been raised by Rs.700/qtl to Rs.2,800/qtl a rise of 38%. Higher base price coupled with remunerative returns earned by the farmers during the last year is likely to boost area under Chana cultivation in 2011-12 seasons.
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX guar seed settles lower on profit booking
Chana futures extended gains of the previous day and settled 1.22 % higher on Thursday on account of improved buying at the support levels. Spot prices however ended 0.22% marginally down yesterday on account of lacklustre trades at the domestic mandis.
There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are providing support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 45.07 lakh hectares as on November 11th 2011 as compared to 36.86 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
The biggest jump has been in the area under gram in Madhya Pradesh (1.29 million hectares, up 80 per cent more than last year) and Rajasthan (13.33 lakh hectares, up 48 per cent). Together, they account for fourfifth of the gram produced in the country. Overall, acreage of all pulses, which also includes lentil and peas apart from gram, in these two states is almost 59 per cent and 65 per cent more than last year. (Source: Business Standard)
Government announced Support price for Rabi crops on 25th October 2011. Chana MSP has been raised by Rs.700/qtl to Rs.2,800/qtl a rise of 38%. Higher base price coupled with remunerative returns earned by the farmers during the last year is likely to boost area under Chana cultivation in 2011-12 seasons.
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Global financial market uncertainty continues with ongoing economic concerns over the European economies. The current market scenario seems like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears. The slightest of the positive news leads to risk appetite, whereas any negative news creates caution in the markets. As we approach the weekend, sentiments remain weak and commodity markets are expected to take cues from economic news and developments.
The Euro recovered from its lows as optimism grew that the European policymakers will be able to resolve the crisis. The currency also strengthened on reports that the European Central Bank (ECB) bought Italian and Spanish securities, following which lending costs declined.
Spot gold prices witnessed gains of around 0.7 percent in today’s trading session mainly on the back of a weaker dollar. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1731/oz and was trading at the level of $1729/oz till 4.45 pm IST. On the MCX Gold December contract rose 0.8 percent and touched an intra-day high of Rs.28689/10 gms till 4.45 pm IST today.
Silver prices also recovered today and are currently trading around 1.7 percent higher (till 4.45pm IST). Revival in market sentiments, upside in base metals coupled with dollar weakness supported upside in the white metal.
Copper prices have bounced back as market sentiments reversed on the back of narrowing Italian bond spread which eased worries with respect to the Euro Zone for the time-being. But we feel that long term economic risks persist and this return of risk appetite may be short-lived. On the LME, Copper prices recovered from the day’s low of $7380/tonne and are currently trading around $7552.25/tonne.
Nymex crude oil increased marginally by 0.1 percent today on the back of expectations that European leaders will come with an agreement to fight debt crisis. Prices are currently trading around $98.87/bbl till 4:45pm which increased also taking cues from a weaker dollar. On the MCX, oil prices gained by 0.1 percent and were hovering around Rs.5054/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5067/bbl till 4:45pm today.
Outlook
We expect gold prices to trade higher as a weaker dollar will support upside in the yellow metal. Silver prices are also expected to trade higher on account of concerns over the Europe ease but any negative news with respect to the Euro Zone could trigger downside pressure in silver prices today.
Copper prices are expected to trade with a positive bias as market sentiments have improved. But the risk to the downside remains in the form of any negative development in the European economies.
Crude oil prices are expected to rise on account of expected decline in inventories due to reversal in direction of the Seaway Pipeline, hopes of rise in demand during the winter season and on easing worries over Europe.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base metals edge lower in unison with weak global shares
Deepening worries with respect to Euro Zone debt concerns exerted downside pressure on the base metals pack in yesterday’s trade.
Additionally, weak sentiments in the global markets coupled with strength in the US dollar also acted as a negative factor for metals on Thursday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned further losses on the domestic platform yesterday.
Copper
Copper was the worst performer on Thursday, as the metal declined almost 4 percent on the LME and around 2.5 percent on the MCX.
Dollar strength and rise in risk aversion in the global markets due to Europe’s concerns exerted pressure on the red metal prices yesterday.
On the MCX Copper touched an intra-day low of Rs381/kg and closed at Rs382/kg on Thursday. Japan’s copper cable shipments increase 3 pct (y-o-y) in Oct.
According to the data from the Japanese Electric Wire and Cable Makers' Association, Japan’s copper wire and cable shipments increased by 3 percent from a year earlier to 60,700 tonnes in October and was up from 59,171 tonnes in September.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Crude oil slumps on Euro debt concerns
Nymex crude oil declined sharply by 3.7 percent yesterday, taking cues from increasing concern over Europe debt crisis.
Additionally, a stronger dollar also exerted further downside pressure on oil prices. Crude oil closed at $98.8/bbl after touching an intra-day low of $98.28/bbl on Thursday.
On the MCX, oil prices declined by more than 2 percent and closed at Rs.5031/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.5007/bbl yesterday.
Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices rose more than 3 percent on Thursday taking cues from less than expected rise in US inventories.
Gas prices touched an intra-day high of 3.479/mbtu and closed at $3.451/mmbtu in yesterday’s trading session. On the MCX, prices gained by 1.3 percent and closed at Rs.174.3/mmbtu on Thursday.
EIA Inventories Data
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly natural gas inventory yesterday which indicated that the inventories increased less than expected by 19 billion cubic feet (bcf) to 3.85 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 11th November.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Precious metals settle lower on firm US dollar
Spot gold prices came under pressure and declined sharply by 2.4 percent on Thursday mainly on the back of dollar strength.
The yellow metal prices touched an intra-day low of $1709/oz and ended its trading session at the level of $1718/oz yesterday.
On the MCX, gold December contract declined around 1.9 percent on Thursday and touched an intra-day low of Rs28,272/10gm.
Depreciation in the Indian Rupee resisted further losses on the domestic bourses yesterday.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose sharply by 1 percent from the previous session to a three-month high of 1,289.46 tonnes on 17th November 2011.
Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices coupled with dollar strength, spot silver prices declined sharply by almost 6 percent on Thursday.
Silver being an industrial metal also took cues from downside in base metals too which led further downside in the white metal prices. MCX Silver December contract traded lower by 5.4 percent and touched an intra-day low of Rs53,728/kg yesterday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base metals settle lower on global economic concerns
Industrial metals trend have been really wild in the recent past, in other word we could say these metals are more prone towards ongoing global economic activities and disturbed market dynamics.
To be précised we are seeing a very mixed trend on metal prices. Metal prices which were seen trading higher during Asia and Europe, all lost their gains and ended on a negative note. The equity performance across the globe are also playing a major role.
The U.S equities ended lower by more than one per cent and that prompted metals to trade lower. Moreover, European nations bond auction by Spain and France had severely negative impact on most of the asset classes and here we have noticed fall on metals too.
The 10 year bond yields of Spain and France stood at 7.088 and 3.82 per cent respectively. In fact oil prices also tumbled that pulled metals to trade lower during US session.
Today morning each of the metals have already shown hefty movement and after making intraday lows in China/Shanghai and LME/London now they are all recovering, may be upturn could be short lived and again selling pressure built up.
The Asian equities are currently trading lower however going ahead equities might revive as euro looks slightly positive ahead German PPI data for the month of October. Nevertheless, metals are likely to remain fragile.
There are no major data expected from US today except leading indicator which is marginally improving. In fact no major activities are taking place from the mining sector so the price actions are mostly driven by market factors.
Looking at the above situations we believe metals to trade mixed for the day however, little selling pressure could be noticed.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices declined by 2.92 per cent along with lower cancelled warrant ratios suggesting the bearish trend is intact.
There is no such major activities from industry however, in the future exchange the OI and Volume have been poor.
The spread between two future contracts is around 0.90 paisa and likely to stay stable in the near term.
Copper
Lower cancelled warrants are not allowing this metals to recover, in fact pushed prices to trade lower.
Cancelled warrants are still hovering below six per cent and likely to continue as the spot activities are still poor.
The spread between November and February future is around Rs. 5 and likely to shrink in the near term.
Lead
Lead prices also fell along with other metals trend. However, cancelled warrants are seen improving suggesting fall could be limited.
However, market dynamics pressure may remain on this commodity as well.
The spread between two contracts are still managing at Rs. 1.00 and likely to stay stable.
Nickel
Nickel prices traded marginally lower and among the metals nickel fell the least. This could be because of sudden spike in cancelled warrants ratio which increased to around 5 per cent suggesting short term demand could push this commodity to move higher.
Time spread between two contracts is at Rs. 7 and slowly the spread should widen in the short term.
Zinc
Although this metal is moving along with other metal complex but the trend looks less bearish and prices on yesterday recovered by 2.78 and 1.28 on LME and MCX respectively.
Cancelled warrant ratio is slowly drifting lower indicating slower pace of decline in stocks or even build-up might be witnessed. However, cancelled warrant ratios sustaining above 5.50 to 6.00 per cent should keep the metal on the higher side.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX rm seed declines on profit booking
Mustard seed prices marginally declined across futures platform as prices were subjected to minor correction on previous rally.
Overall sowing progress is still lagging in compared to last year but has improved from last week.
Delayed cotton harvesting in fee regions has affected are of mustard in the current crop year.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India soy complex drops on weekly export sales data
Soybean prices declined in on Thursday both Indian market and CBOT markets as crushing margin in India declined while at CBOT weekly export sales was better than last week however it is still lower compared to last week.
Soy oil prices erased all the gains towards the closing as palm oil prices decreased due to corrections on previous rally.
Sharp decline in crude oil prices prompted the soy oil prices at CBOT to follow the losses as the bio diesel demand for soy oil would be at stake on falling crude oil prices.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd
NCDEX wheat trades higher on firm spot demand
Wheat futures traded positive on Thursday. Regular demand across the markets along with weak sowing progress of wheat in Uttar Pradesh supported the prices to trade higher.
Lean season for arrivals also influenced the positive movement of prices. Prices across the physical markets had gained from Rs.1210 to Rs.1220 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India maize settles higher on fresh buying
Maize futures traded positive on Thursday. Traders took advantage of earlier losses and went for buying at lower price levels which supported the prices to trade higher.
Arrivals in Nizamabad physical markets had declined from 2000 bags to 1000 bags which supported the gains.
Prices across the physical markets gained from Rs.1045 to Rs.1050 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX guar seed weakens on fresh arrivals
Guar seed and gum futures traded downside on Thursday. Fresh arrivals in both Jodhpur and Bikaner physical market pressurized the prices to decline during the day.
Arrivals in Jodhpur physical markets had been around 1 lakh bags (1 bag=100 kg). Weak demand fir guar gum also supported the downtrend.
Prices across the physical markets had declined from Rs.4350 per quintal to Rs.4300 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX chana edges higher on limited stocks
Chana futures traded positive on Thursday. Good demand across the markets and lower supplies supported the chana prices to trade higher.
Traders took advantage of earlier losses and went for buying at lower price levels which supported the gains.
Weak sowing progress of chana in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh influenced the prices to trade positive.
Prices across the physical markets were stable at Rs.3550 per quintal. Gradual decline in stock position also supported the uptrend.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX chilli ends higher on fresh buying
Chilli prices witnessed smart recovery on previous huge losses on Thursday.
However, overall trend at spot market remained down due to huge arrivals along with weak demand.
Therefore, futures shaded most of its gains towards the closing and ended on marginally positive note.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX jeera weakens on subdued export demand
Jeera futures continued the bearish trend o sluggish domestic and export demand.
Higher arrivals along with good sowing progress in major growing regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat pressurized the prices.
Thus on cues from falling trend at spot market futures also traded down.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX turmeric settles lower on arrival pressure
Turmeric prices extended the down trend on reduced demand across the spot markets.
Previous rally in prices resulted in sudden rise in arrivals which pulled down the prices. Spot prices at Erode market witnessed a fall of Rs. 200- 300 per quintal.
Therefore on cues from spot futures also traded down.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX pepper declines on fresh selling
Pepper prices continued the usual volatility on prevailing uncertainty in prices trend.
Futures started the day on flat note but later on resumed down trend on fresh selling on previous gains.
Most of the small traders are staying away from market as prices are not moving inline with the fundamentals.
Therefore, after witnessing volatility on speculative activities futures ended the day in red.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India turmeric slumps on selling pressure
Turmeric Futures continued to trade lower due to selling by the market participants and settled 1.37% down on Thursday. However near month futures continued to trade higher and settled near upper freeze of 4% yesterday.
There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%. This is likely to provide support to the prices.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,500 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 12,000 bags on Thursday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India jeera finishes up on fresh buying
Turmeric Futures continued to trade lower due to selling by the market participants and settled 1.37% down on Thursday. However near month futures continued to trade higher and settled near upper freeze of 4% yesterday.
There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%. This is likely to provide support to the prices.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,500 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 12,000 bags on Thursday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India pepper falls on long liquidation
Pepper Futures witnessed long liquidation at higher levels and settled 0.28% lower on Thursday. Prices in Spot however settled 0.08% higher due to increased offtakes. Reports that pepper crop in 2011-12 might fall below last year level of 48,000 tonnes is supporting pepper prices. It expected to be in the range of 42-44 thousand tonnes.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper will also support prices.
Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year. Carryover stocks of pepper with Vietnam till commencement of fresh arrivals in March are projected to be around 15,000 tonnes. (Source: Pepper Trade Board)
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,625 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl $7,200/tonne was quoting its pepper at $7,325 per tonne (f.o.b).
Indonesian and Brazil Asta grade is being offered at $7,200 and $7,450/tonne respectively.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 export of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt. Exports from Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have decreased, while exports from Vietnam and India increased.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Thursday stood at 5 tonnes as compared to 6 tonnes on Wednesday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 8 tonnes.
Production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be 43 thousand tonnes according to the market sources a decline of 5% as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is declined by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice for 2010-11 was around 1.15 lakh tonnes. Pepper production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX soybean declines on profit booking
NCDEX December soybean futures ended slightly lower on Thursday on account of profit taking and weak soybean futures at CBOT. However, oilseeds complex is firm due to improved demand from China due to easing monetary policies to spur economic growth. China is planning to more US soybean to increase their stock reserve. According to executives with a state grain processing and trading company, China bought six cargoes (500,000 metric tonnes) of soybeans from the U.S. The move is part of its plan to buy 2 million tons of soybeans.
As per 49th All India Convention on Oilseeds, oils Trade and Industry which was organized by COIIT and hosted by SOPA on November 06, 2001 (Sunday). COIIT estimates, India soybean output in Kharif 2011 at 115 lakh tonnes against 95 lakh tonnes last year.
USDA’s monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month.
Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX December RM Seed futures ended in red on account of profit taking and higher sowing acreage till date. Area under Mustard seed in the last year stood around 7.2 million ha compared to 6.4 million ha in 2009-10 seaosn. Rajasthan government has targeted mustard acreage in 2011-12 season at 30 lakh hectares compared to 24.9 lakh ha in 2010-11 season. As on 15th November, sowing has been completed on 78 percent of the area with total area covered so far standing around 23.55 lakh ha compare to 22.10 lakh ha same period last year.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX December Refined Soy oil futures traded higher on 4th consecutive trading sessions as improved demand coupled with supply concern of palm oil due to heavy rains in Indonesia and Malaysia. Better export figures of palm oil during the first 15 days of this month also provided support to the prices.
As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-15 rose 11.6% from a month earlier to 802,917 metric tons.
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports:
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010.
However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India sugar extended uptrend on delayed cane crushing
Sugar futures continued to trade firm for the fourth consecutive session of the week on re the previous day and settled 2.77% higher on Wednesday on reports of lower sugar recovery till date in Maharashtra as compared to last year. Crushing in Uttar Pradesh has been delayed led by dispute over cane price. This is also supporting sugar prices. Decision on the sugar exports has been deferred till November 21, 2011.
So far 116 mills in Maharatsra are operating out of over 160 expected to produce, and have churned out 311,000 tonnes of sugar compared with 390,000 tonnes a year ago.(source: Reuters)
Further, reports that the Empowered Group of ministers may consider fresh Sugar exports on 21st November are likely to provide support to the prices.
ICE Raw Sugar futures and LIFFE settled 1.96% and 1.04% down on Thursday with sustained concerns of Euro debt crisis. Possibility of decision on exports of sugar from India is also weighing on the prices.
However, buying by Malaysia coupled with issuance of import quota by Mexico may lend support to the international prices.
Brazil sugar exports down 17% Y-Y in October 2011. Brazil exported 2.55 million tonnes of sugar in the month of October 2011 on account of less cane and sugar output.
Domestic Sugar updates
Cane output in Maharashtra is expected to rise to 82.5 mn tn during 2011-12 from 80.3 mn tn last year, while sugar output is likely to increase about 2.5% to 9.3 mn tn.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
According to UNICA, Sugar production in Brazil's center-south in the second half of Oct dipped 23.5 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar output totaled 1.47 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier. Eighty-nine out of the 310 existing mills in the region had concluded crushing by Nov. 1.
China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full year likely to be issued around October 10.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India chana to edge higher on extended buying
Chana futures extended gains of the previous day and settled 1.22 % higher on Thursday on account of improved buying at the support levels. Spot prices however ended 0.22% marginally down yesterday on account of lacklustre trades at the domestic mandis.
There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are providing support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 45.07 lakh hectares as on November 11th 2011 as compared to 36.86 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
The biggest jump has been in the area under gram in Madhya Pradesh (1.29 million hectares, up 80 per cent more than last year) and Rajasthan (13.33 lakh hectares, up 48 per cent). Together, they account for fourfifth of the gram produced in the country. Overall, acreage of all pulses, which also includes lentil and peas apart from gram, in these two states is almost 59 per cent and 65 per cent more than last year. (Source: Business Standard)
Government announced Support price for Rabi crops on 25th October 2011. Chana MSP has been raised by Rs.700/qtl to Rs.2,800/qtl a rise of 38%. Higher base price coupled with remunerative returns earned by the farmers during the last year is likely to boost area under Chana cultivation in 2011-12 seasons.
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX guar seed settles lower on profit booking
Chana futures extended gains of the previous day and settled 1.22 % higher on Thursday on account of improved buying at the support levels. Spot prices however ended 0.22% marginally down yesterday on account of lacklustre trades at the domestic mandis.
There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are providing support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 45.07 lakh hectares as on November 11th 2011 as compared to 36.86 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
The biggest jump has been in the area under gram in Madhya Pradesh (1.29 million hectares, up 80 per cent more than last year) and Rajasthan (13.33 lakh hectares, up 48 per cent). Together, they account for fourfifth of the gram produced in the country. Overall, acreage of all pulses, which also includes lentil and peas apart from gram, in these two states is almost 59 per cent and 65 per cent more than last year. (Source: Business Standard)
Government announced Support price for Rabi crops on 25th October 2011. Chana MSP has been raised by Rs.700/qtl to Rs.2,800/qtl a rise of 38%. Higher base price coupled with remunerative returns earned by the farmers during the last year is likely to boost area under Chana cultivation in 2011-12 seasons.
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities