Copper Prices Slip Sharply, Crude Oil Moves Up
Spot Gold prices are trading lower today, as mixed market sentiments led to reduced support for the yellow metal as a safe-haven. Although European equities are trading in the red, Asian markets were largely trading higher and this diversion in sentiments came in as a negative factor for gold. Spot Gold prices declined around 0.2 percent till 4.30pm IST, and prices are currently trading below the $1760/oz mark.
Spot Silver prices on the other hand declined around 0.5 percent, taking cues from downside in gold and also pressure on base metals.
European stocks felt the pressure as Spanish and French borrowing costs rose. Yield on the 10-year Spanish bond rose to 6.975 percent, deepening worries that the Euro Zone debt crisis would spread further. On the back of these concerns, the US Dollar Index (DX) witnessed gains to the tune of 0.3 percent and the currency touched a high of 78.69 till 4.30pm IST.
Copper prices slipped sharply by more than 2 percent after France and Germany had difference of opinion over the role that the European Central Bank (ECB) would play in dealing with the European debt crisis.
This has revived concerns over the ability of policymakers to resolve the crisis. Another factor that affected copper prices was the statement by BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest miner that the outlook for the commodity markets was wary as they expect demand to slowdown on the back tighter access to credit that will has led to lower consumption.
In the initial part of the trade, crude oil prices were trading sharply higher despite European concerns on the back of indication of decline in stockpiles in the US. Even in yesterday’s trade, oil prices took support from news that Enbridge Inc., owner 804.5 kilometer pipeline will reverse the north-flowing pipeline that extends from Houston on the Gulf of Mexico to Cushing, Oklahoma.
On the back of this, inventories are expected to decline. But Nymex crude oil prices fell from its intra-day high of $10.3.37/bbl to around $102.3/bbl currently. Although supply concerns are supportive for crude oil prices, we feel that it could succumb to the existing European economic worries.
Outlook
We expect gold prices to trade higher today, as economic concerns rise and this will be a supportive factor for upside in the yellow metal from a safe-haven perspective.
Copper and crude oil prices are expected to witness downside pressure today on account of heightening European economic woes. But in case of crude oil, sharp downside will be cushioned on the back of expected decline in stockpiles in the US due to reversal of a pipeline.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Mixed Trend In Base Metals On Global Debt Worries
Base metals traded on a mixed note yesterday and Copper, the leader of the base metals pack closed on a flat note yesterday but prices on the MCX declined around 0.5 percent.
As economic risks widen, consumption growth for base metals is expected to come under doubt, especially as the Euro region is second behind China for copper demand.
Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metals pack has declined sharply in the current year. Returns on a year-to-date basis in copper are down by almost 21 percent on the London Metal Exchange (LME), while the scenario in the Indian markets is better as a weaker Rupee has cushioned sharp downside in copper prices on the MCX, with negative returns to the tune of 11 percent.
The currency factor plays a crucial role in price performance on the Indian bourses.
The red metal is considered as an indicator of economic growth and falling prices indicate a grim economic scenario. During the year, prices have largely taken cues from monetray policy tightening in China which had an impact on manufacturing and construction activity.
Lack of access to credit affected restocking by fabricators who opted for a hand-to-mouth approach.
However, the sharp correction in prices has brought in scope for upbeat imports in the coming months as in August and September, prices on the LME decline faster than that on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), thus making imports of copper more viable in China due to the price differential.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Crude Oil Edges Higher On Weak Inventories
Nymex crude oil prices gained by more than 3 percent yesterday on the back of fall in crude oil inventories last week.
Also news reversal of critical Seaway pipeline will ease a yearlong oil surplus in the Midwest, thus helping reduce inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma. This also acted as a positive factor for crude oil prices yesterday.
Oil prices closed at $102.6/bbl, which is at a five-month high after touching an intra-day high of $102.89/bbl. On the MCX, oil prices increased by 2.3 percent and closed at Rs.5150/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5186/bbl on Wednesday.
EIA Inventories
As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report last night, crude oil inventories declined by 1.06 million barrels to 337.03 million barrels for the week ending on 11th November, 2011.
Gasoline stocks rose by 992,000 barrels and were at 205.16 million barrels whereas distillate stockpiles drop by 2.14 million barrels and remained at 133.73 million barrels for the last week.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Precious Metals Decline On Euro Economic Concerns
Despite rising concerns with respect to the European economies, gold prices came under yesterday as strength in the DX capped gains in prices.
Spot Gold prices touched an intra-day high of $1783/oz but closed sharply lower at $1760/oz, losing more than 1 percent yesterday.
But a weaker Rupee prevented a fall in gold prices in the domestic markets. As compared to the previous trade, the MCX gold December contract closed around 0.7 percent higher at Rs29,100/10gm.
Silver
Spot Silver prices declined sharply by 2.6 percent on Wednesday and closed below $34/oz as dollar strength and uncertain global market scenario led to selling pressure on prices.
In the domestic markets however, silver closed in the positive territory on account of weakness in the Indian Rupee, which prevented losses.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base Metals Settle Higher On Positive US Economic Data
The complete metal sector traded lower during Asia and Europe on yesterday however, all the losses were eroded during US session and finally metals ended on a positive note.
The positive economic data released from US especially industrial production figures and crude oil breaking $100 mark pushed the metals to trade higher.
Although U.S equities traded lower but had no impact on metals trend. This indicates oil and metals carries a good correlation and such move was mostly driven by the oil price rise. Today morning Asian equities are seen trading lower as debt owes still continues which is pulling metals and energy prices to trade lower.
Metals prices at Shanghai are also seen trading lower. In fact at LME all the metals are seen trading lower by more than one per cent. Going ahead the day trend looks very crucial as the euro which is now trading lower is likely to remain volatile as France and Spain are likely to make € 12 Billion bond auction.
Furthering on from US economy host of economic data is expected in the form of Housing figures and jobs data.
The data are expected to come better and that may support metal prices to recover. In the Indian front, rupee is expected to depreciate that might support Indian metal prices to trade higher as well. Overall, we believe metals to trade firm but volatility cannot be ruled out.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices reversed the losses and ended on a positive note by 1.65 per cent. Prices rose along with cancelled warrant ratio suggest may be very immediate recovery or short term demand can be expected.
The open interests have also increased suggesting metals to move higher for the day however volatility can certainly be expected.
Copper
Copper prices though managed to trade marginally higher but continuously lower cancelled warrants keeping a bearish approach on this metal.
Marginal recovery from its intraday losses and closing at 0.47 per cent does not suggest much fresh buying as the open interest have not improved. In fact the OI in MCX February contract has not changed at all.
Lead
Lead prices recovered along with other metals sector and ended by 1.20 per cent. The cancelled warrants have shown marginal recovery suggesting prices may spurt in the near term.
The lead prices have increased along with volume and open interest in the Indian market suggesting prices to recover further on today’s trading session.
Nickel
Prices recovered sharply by 3.36 per cent along with strong revival in the cancelled warrant ratio suggesting short term demand scenario looks reversing to higher side.
Looking at the cancelled warrant ratios we believe nickel prices may rise further.
On the fundamental front, Japan’s largest producer of the metal indicated that the global nickel surplus might increase to 54,000 tonnes in 2012 to the highest level in four years.
Zinc
Although this metal is moving along with other metal complex but the trend looks less bearish and prices on yesterday recovered by 2.78 and 1.28 on LME and MCX respectively.
Cancelled warrant ratio is slowly drifting lower indicating slower pace of decline in stocks or even build-up might be witnessed. However, cancelled warrant ratios sustaining above 5.50 to 6.00 per cent should keep the metal on the higher side.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Wheat Edges Higher On Firm Spot Demand
Wheat futures traded positive on Wednesday. Good demand for wheat across the markets supported the prices to trade higher.
Lean season of arrivals had also been supportive for the wheat prices to remain upside during the day.
Weak sowing progress of wheat in Uttar Pradesh supported the gains. Prices across the physical markets had been stable at Rs.1210 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Maize Weakens On Fresh Arrivals
Maize futures traded negative on Wednesday. Pressure build across the markets due to ongoing fresh arrival season affected the prices to decline during the day.
Weak demand for maize in Nizamabad and Davangere physical markets also pressurized the prices to trade downside. However, the losses were limited owing to stockiest demand in Delhi market.
Prices across the physical markets had declined from Rs.1050 to Rs.1045 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Guar Seed Tumbles On Arrival Pressure
Guar seed and gum futures traded negative on Wednesday. Arrivals had been increased to 1 lakh bags (1 bag=100 kg) in Jodhpur physical markets.
Therefore, the arrival pressure pressurized the prices to decline during the day. Weak demand for guar gum also supported the downtrend.
Prices across the physical markets had declined from Rs.4400 to Rs.4350 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Chana Settles Lower On Active Selling
Chana futures traded negative on Wednesday. Traders took advantage of earlier gains and went for selling at higher price levels which supported the prices to trade lower.
Sowing of chana has been good in Rajasthan as the area under chana in Rajasthan as on 15th November, 2011 was 13.33 lakh ha against 8.96 lakh ha during last year same period which pressurized the prices to trade downside.
However, regular demand and low supplies across the physical markets supported the spot prices to gain from Rs.3510 to Rs.3550 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Jeera Remains Lower On Rising Arrivals
Jeera futures reversed the trend on down side amid rising arrivals across the spot markets.
Good sowing progress in major growing regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat pressurized the prices and futures also traded down.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Turmeric Weakens On Fresh Selling
Turmeric prices resumed down trend on fresh selling in far month contracts.
Prevailing weak trend amid hug carry forward stocks along with expectations of higher production pulled down the prices.
Therefore on cues from spot futures also traded down.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Pepper Edges Higher On Short Covering
Pepper prices extended the volatility on huge speculative activities.
Futures started the day on lower note however, later on prices took smart recovery on short covering.
Reports of availability with Indian and Brazil only supported the upside movement in prices ended in green.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX rm Seed Drops On Profit Booking
Mustard seed prices ended the day in red as prices were subjected to slight correction on previous rally.
However, overall sentiments of the market still remained positive. Sowing prospects are lagging as area available for sowing is lower due to the cotton crop which is not completely harvested.
Further currently there are no rains which could help sowing activities to gain momentum.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Soy Complex Rises On Firm Spot Demand
Soybean prices extended gains on Wednesday as the spot demand was reported to be supportive for prices.
Despite arrivals increasing in markets stockists and crushers are actively buying which helped prices to gain a tad.
CBOT prices declined on Wednesday as weekly export sales expectations were lower. Strength in dollar index kept the prices under pressure.
Soy oil prices extended gains both in Indian markets and CBOT on Wednesday. Overall tighter supply predictions for edible oils across globe are expected to support prices.
Lower imports of edible oil and disrupted palm oil supplies in Malaysia and Indonesia as weather is affecting harvesting activities. Surge in crude oil prices also lent support to soy oil prices at CBOT.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Turmeric Settles Lower On Long Liquidation
Turmeric Futures after trading firm in the early part of the trading session witnessed long liquidation by the market participants and settled 1.47% down on Wednesday. However near month futures continued to trade higher and settled near upper freeze of 4% yesterday. Demand from the local stockists and reports of crop damage are controlling prices from falling.
There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,500 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 8,000 bags on Tuesday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Soybean Edges Lower On Weak Exports
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):US soybean futures close down amid profit-taking and the absence of fresh export news to sustain the recent rally.
That encouraged traders to reduce some risk exposure, while a firmer dollar and economic and debt worries promoted cautious action as well.
Meanwhile, traders are concerned about shutting off export demand if price push too far above $12/bushel, analysts added.
CBOT January soy ended down 12 1/2c at $11.87 3/4.
Courtesy:CME Group
India Jeera Declines On Profit Booking
Jeera prices after trading firm in the last two trading sessions declined owing to profit booking at the higher levels and settled 0.53% lower on Wednesday. Spot prices however ended 0.45% higher due to reduced arrivals amidst better offtakes yesterday.
Sowing of jeera in Rajasthan has gained momentum due to favorable weather condition. Sowing of Jeera has also commenced in some parts of Gujarat but it is on slow pace. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 3,500 bags, 500 bags higher as compared to the previous day while offtakes stood at 4,000 bags on Wednesday.
Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 22 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Soybean Meal, Soy Oil Tumbles On Profit Taking
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):Soy product futures stumbled in step with soybeans, succumbing to pressure from traders taking profits on recent gains.
Soyoil futures ended slightly lower, fighting off most of the selling pressure as soaring crude oil prices make biodiesel derived from soyoil more profitable, analysts say.
CBOT Dec soyoil ended down 0.12c at 52.48c/lb; Dec soymeal finished down $5.00 at $296.40/short ton.
Courtesy:CME Group
NCDEX Pepper Remains Higher On Limited Stocks
Pepper Futures traded firm owing reports of lower output in India on Wednesday. Prices in Spot however settled 0.24% lower due to increased arrivals. Reports that pepper crop in 2011-12 might fall below last year level of 48,000 tonnes is supporting pepper prices. It expected to be in the range of 42-44 thousand tonnes.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper will also support prices.
Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year. Carryover stocks of pepper with Vietnam till commencement of fresh arrivals in March are projected to be around 15,000 tonnes. (Source: Pepper Trade Board)
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,625 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl $7,200/tonne was quoting its pepper at $7,325 per tonne (f.o.b). Indonesian and Brazil Asta grade is being offered at $7,200 and $7,450/tonne respectively.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 export of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt. Exports from Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have decreased, while exports from Vietnam and India increased.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Wednesday stood at 6 tonnes as compared to 24 tonnes on Tuesday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 8 tonnes.
Production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be 43 thousand tonnes according to the market sources a decline of 5% as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is declined by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice for 2010-11 was around 1.15 lakh tonnes. Pepper production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Wheat Declines On Profit Booking
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):US wheat futures end mostly lower, backpedaling from early gains.
Traders were cautious of risk in the face of European debt uncertainty and worries about sluggish export demand, analysts say.
The absence of a bullish fundamental story to buoy prices encouraged traders to take profits on advances, particularly with export competition from Black Sea region.
CBOT Dec wheat ended down 16c at $6.16 3/4/bushel, Dec KCBT wheat ended 18c lower at $6.87, while Dec MGEX wheat climbed 2 1/4c amid tight farmer holding of supplies to $9.33 1/2.
Courtesy:CME Group
India Soybean Gains On Global Cues
NCDEX December soybean futures traded higher on account of firm overseas market as improved demand from China due to easing monetary policies to spur economic growth. China is planning to more US soybean to increase their stock reserve. According to executives with a state grain processing and trading company, China bought six cargoes (500,000 metric tonnes) of soybeans from the U.S. The move is part of its plan to buy 2 million tons of soybeans.
As per 49th All India Convention on Oilseeds, oils Trade and Industry which was organized by COIIT and hosted by SOPA on November 06, 2001 (Sunday). COIIT estimates, India soybean output in Kharif 2011 at 115 lakh tonnes against 95 lakh tonnes last year.
USDA’s monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month. Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX December RM Seed futures traded higher in the morning hours as firm overseas market, however, price could not sustain higher levels and slipped from high on account of profit taking. Total sowing acreage of RM Seed in Rajasthan increased to 22.58 lakh hectares till November 08, 2011 as compared to 21.50 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Rajasthan is a major producing state of RM Seed in India.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX December Refined Soy oil futures traded higher on 3rd consecutive trading sessions due to firm overseas market as supply concern of palm oil due to heavy rains in Indonesia and Malaysia as well. Better export figures of palm oil during the first 15 days of this month also provided support to the prices.
As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-15 rose 11.6% from a month earlier to 802,917 metric tons..
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010.
However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Corn Drops On Selling Pressure
CHICAGO (Commodity Online) :US corn futures end lower on outside market pressure and a lack of demand.
Grains markets lacked their own direction and succumbed to a risk-off trade as worries about Europe's debt crisis flared up anew, says Don Roose of US Commodities.
A stronger dollar also weighed on market action. "It seems like we have a market that's fairly well-balanced fundamentally," Roose says.
Demand, particularly for exports, remains weak, but supplies are still likely to be tight at least until the next harvest. CBOT December corn ends down 2 3/4c at $6.42 3/4 per bushel.
Courtesy:CME Group
Spot Gold prices are trading lower today, as mixed market sentiments led to reduced support for the yellow metal as a safe-haven. Although European equities are trading in the red, Asian markets were largely trading higher and this diversion in sentiments came in as a negative factor for gold. Spot Gold prices declined around 0.2 percent till 4.30pm IST, and prices are currently trading below the $1760/oz mark.
Spot Silver prices on the other hand declined around 0.5 percent, taking cues from downside in gold and also pressure on base metals.
European stocks felt the pressure as Spanish and French borrowing costs rose. Yield on the 10-year Spanish bond rose to 6.975 percent, deepening worries that the Euro Zone debt crisis would spread further. On the back of these concerns, the US Dollar Index (DX) witnessed gains to the tune of 0.3 percent and the currency touched a high of 78.69 till 4.30pm IST.
Copper prices slipped sharply by more than 2 percent after France and Germany had difference of opinion over the role that the European Central Bank (ECB) would play in dealing with the European debt crisis.
This has revived concerns over the ability of policymakers to resolve the crisis. Another factor that affected copper prices was the statement by BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest miner that the outlook for the commodity markets was wary as they expect demand to slowdown on the back tighter access to credit that will has led to lower consumption.
In the initial part of the trade, crude oil prices were trading sharply higher despite European concerns on the back of indication of decline in stockpiles in the US. Even in yesterday’s trade, oil prices took support from news that Enbridge Inc., owner 804.5 kilometer pipeline will reverse the north-flowing pipeline that extends from Houston on the Gulf of Mexico to Cushing, Oklahoma.
On the back of this, inventories are expected to decline. But Nymex crude oil prices fell from its intra-day high of $10.3.37/bbl to around $102.3/bbl currently. Although supply concerns are supportive for crude oil prices, we feel that it could succumb to the existing European economic worries.
Outlook
We expect gold prices to trade higher today, as economic concerns rise and this will be a supportive factor for upside in the yellow metal from a safe-haven perspective.
Copper and crude oil prices are expected to witness downside pressure today on account of heightening European economic woes. But in case of crude oil, sharp downside will be cushioned on the back of expected decline in stockpiles in the US due to reversal of a pipeline.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Mixed Trend In Base Metals On Global Debt Worries
Base metals traded on a mixed note yesterday and Copper, the leader of the base metals pack closed on a flat note yesterday but prices on the MCX declined around 0.5 percent.
As economic risks widen, consumption growth for base metals is expected to come under doubt, especially as the Euro region is second behind China for copper demand.
Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metals pack has declined sharply in the current year. Returns on a year-to-date basis in copper are down by almost 21 percent on the London Metal Exchange (LME), while the scenario in the Indian markets is better as a weaker Rupee has cushioned sharp downside in copper prices on the MCX, with negative returns to the tune of 11 percent.
The currency factor plays a crucial role in price performance on the Indian bourses.
The red metal is considered as an indicator of economic growth and falling prices indicate a grim economic scenario. During the year, prices have largely taken cues from monetray policy tightening in China which had an impact on manufacturing and construction activity.
Lack of access to credit affected restocking by fabricators who opted for a hand-to-mouth approach.
However, the sharp correction in prices has brought in scope for upbeat imports in the coming months as in August and September, prices on the LME decline faster than that on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), thus making imports of copper more viable in China due to the price differential.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Crude Oil Edges Higher On Weak Inventories
Nymex crude oil prices gained by more than 3 percent yesterday on the back of fall in crude oil inventories last week.
Also news reversal of critical Seaway pipeline will ease a yearlong oil surplus in the Midwest, thus helping reduce inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma. This also acted as a positive factor for crude oil prices yesterday.
Oil prices closed at $102.6/bbl, which is at a five-month high after touching an intra-day high of $102.89/bbl. On the MCX, oil prices increased by 2.3 percent and closed at Rs.5150/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5186/bbl on Wednesday.
EIA Inventories
As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report last night, crude oil inventories declined by 1.06 million barrels to 337.03 million barrels for the week ending on 11th November, 2011.
Gasoline stocks rose by 992,000 barrels and were at 205.16 million barrels whereas distillate stockpiles drop by 2.14 million barrels and remained at 133.73 million barrels for the last week.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Precious Metals Decline On Euro Economic Concerns
Despite rising concerns with respect to the European economies, gold prices came under yesterday as strength in the DX capped gains in prices.
Spot Gold prices touched an intra-day high of $1783/oz but closed sharply lower at $1760/oz, losing more than 1 percent yesterday.
But a weaker Rupee prevented a fall in gold prices in the domestic markets. As compared to the previous trade, the MCX gold December contract closed around 0.7 percent higher at Rs29,100/10gm.
Silver
Spot Silver prices declined sharply by 2.6 percent on Wednesday and closed below $34/oz as dollar strength and uncertain global market scenario led to selling pressure on prices.
In the domestic markets however, silver closed in the positive territory on account of weakness in the Indian Rupee, which prevented losses.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base Metals Settle Higher On Positive US Economic Data
The complete metal sector traded lower during Asia and Europe on yesterday however, all the losses were eroded during US session and finally metals ended on a positive note.
The positive economic data released from US especially industrial production figures and crude oil breaking $100 mark pushed the metals to trade higher.
Although U.S equities traded lower but had no impact on metals trend. This indicates oil and metals carries a good correlation and such move was mostly driven by the oil price rise. Today morning Asian equities are seen trading lower as debt owes still continues which is pulling metals and energy prices to trade lower.
Metals prices at Shanghai are also seen trading lower. In fact at LME all the metals are seen trading lower by more than one per cent. Going ahead the day trend looks very crucial as the euro which is now trading lower is likely to remain volatile as France and Spain are likely to make € 12 Billion bond auction.
Furthering on from US economy host of economic data is expected in the form of Housing figures and jobs data.
The data are expected to come better and that may support metal prices to recover. In the Indian front, rupee is expected to depreciate that might support Indian metal prices to trade higher as well. Overall, we believe metals to trade firm but volatility cannot be ruled out.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices reversed the losses and ended on a positive note by 1.65 per cent. Prices rose along with cancelled warrant ratio suggest may be very immediate recovery or short term demand can be expected.
The open interests have also increased suggesting metals to move higher for the day however volatility can certainly be expected.
Copper
Copper prices though managed to trade marginally higher but continuously lower cancelled warrants keeping a bearish approach on this metal.
Marginal recovery from its intraday losses and closing at 0.47 per cent does not suggest much fresh buying as the open interest have not improved. In fact the OI in MCX February contract has not changed at all.
Lead
Lead prices recovered along with other metals sector and ended by 1.20 per cent. The cancelled warrants have shown marginal recovery suggesting prices may spurt in the near term.
The lead prices have increased along with volume and open interest in the Indian market suggesting prices to recover further on today’s trading session.
Nickel
Prices recovered sharply by 3.36 per cent along with strong revival in the cancelled warrant ratio suggesting short term demand scenario looks reversing to higher side.
Looking at the cancelled warrant ratios we believe nickel prices may rise further.
On the fundamental front, Japan’s largest producer of the metal indicated that the global nickel surplus might increase to 54,000 tonnes in 2012 to the highest level in four years.
Zinc
Although this metal is moving along with other metal complex but the trend looks less bearish and prices on yesterday recovered by 2.78 and 1.28 on LME and MCX respectively.
Cancelled warrant ratio is slowly drifting lower indicating slower pace of decline in stocks or even build-up might be witnessed. However, cancelled warrant ratios sustaining above 5.50 to 6.00 per cent should keep the metal on the higher side.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Wheat Edges Higher On Firm Spot Demand
Wheat futures traded positive on Wednesday. Good demand for wheat across the markets supported the prices to trade higher.
Lean season of arrivals had also been supportive for the wheat prices to remain upside during the day.
Weak sowing progress of wheat in Uttar Pradesh supported the gains. Prices across the physical markets had been stable at Rs.1210 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Maize Weakens On Fresh Arrivals
Maize futures traded negative on Wednesday. Pressure build across the markets due to ongoing fresh arrival season affected the prices to decline during the day.
Weak demand for maize in Nizamabad and Davangere physical markets also pressurized the prices to trade downside. However, the losses were limited owing to stockiest demand in Delhi market.
Prices across the physical markets had declined from Rs.1050 to Rs.1045 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Guar Seed Tumbles On Arrival Pressure
Guar seed and gum futures traded negative on Wednesday. Arrivals had been increased to 1 lakh bags (1 bag=100 kg) in Jodhpur physical markets.
Therefore, the arrival pressure pressurized the prices to decline during the day. Weak demand for guar gum also supported the downtrend.
Prices across the physical markets had declined from Rs.4400 to Rs.4350 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Chana Settles Lower On Active Selling
Chana futures traded negative on Wednesday. Traders took advantage of earlier gains and went for selling at higher price levels which supported the prices to trade lower.
Sowing of chana has been good in Rajasthan as the area under chana in Rajasthan as on 15th November, 2011 was 13.33 lakh ha against 8.96 lakh ha during last year same period which pressurized the prices to trade downside.
However, regular demand and low supplies across the physical markets supported the spot prices to gain from Rs.3510 to Rs.3550 per quintal.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Jeera Remains Lower On Rising Arrivals
Jeera futures reversed the trend on down side amid rising arrivals across the spot markets.
Good sowing progress in major growing regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat pressurized the prices and futures also traded down.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Turmeric Weakens On Fresh Selling
Turmeric prices resumed down trend on fresh selling in far month contracts.
Prevailing weak trend amid hug carry forward stocks along with expectations of higher production pulled down the prices.
Therefore on cues from spot futures also traded down.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX Pepper Edges Higher On Short Covering
Pepper prices extended the volatility on huge speculative activities.
Futures started the day on lower note however, later on prices took smart recovery on short covering.
Reports of availability with Indian and Brazil only supported the upside movement in prices ended in green.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
NCDEX rm Seed Drops On Profit Booking
Mustard seed prices ended the day in red as prices were subjected to slight correction on previous rally.
However, overall sentiments of the market still remained positive. Sowing prospects are lagging as area available for sowing is lower due to the cotton crop which is not completely harvested.
Further currently there are no rains which could help sowing activities to gain momentum.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Soy Complex Rises On Firm Spot Demand
Soybean prices extended gains on Wednesday as the spot demand was reported to be supportive for prices.
Despite arrivals increasing in markets stockists and crushers are actively buying which helped prices to gain a tad.
CBOT prices declined on Wednesday as weekly export sales expectations were lower. Strength in dollar index kept the prices under pressure.
Soy oil prices extended gains both in Indian markets and CBOT on Wednesday. Overall tighter supply predictions for edible oils across globe are expected to support prices.
Lower imports of edible oil and disrupted palm oil supplies in Malaysia and Indonesia as weather is affecting harvesting activities. Surge in crude oil prices also lent support to soy oil prices at CBOT.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India Turmeric Settles Lower On Long Liquidation
Turmeric Futures after trading firm in the early part of the trading session witnessed long liquidation by the market participants and settled 1.47% down on Wednesday. However near month futures continued to trade higher and settled near upper freeze of 4% yesterday. Demand from the local stockists and reports of crop damage are controlling prices from falling.
There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,500 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 8,000 bags on Tuesday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Soybean Edges Lower On Weak Exports
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):US soybean futures close down amid profit-taking and the absence of fresh export news to sustain the recent rally.
That encouraged traders to reduce some risk exposure, while a firmer dollar and economic and debt worries promoted cautious action as well.
Meanwhile, traders are concerned about shutting off export demand if price push too far above $12/bushel, analysts added.
CBOT January soy ended down 12 1/2c at $11.87 3/4.
Courtesy:CME Group
India Jeera Declines On Profit Booking
Jeera prices after trading firm in the last two trading sessions declined owing to profit booking at the higher levels and settled 0.53% lower on Wednesday. Spot prices however ended 0.45% higher due to reduced arrivals amidst better offtakes yesterday.
Sowing of jeera in Rajasthan has gained momentum due to favorable weather condition. Sowing of Jeera has also commenced in some parts of Gujarat but it is on slow pace. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 3,500 bags, 500 bags higher as compared to the previous day while offtakes stood at 4,000 bags on Wednesday.
Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 22 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Soybean Meal, Soy Oil Tumbles On Profit Taking
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):Soy product futures stumbled in step with soybeans, succumbing to pressure from traders taking profits on recent gains.
Soyoil futures ended slightly lower, fighting off most of the selling pressure as soaring crude oil prices make biodiesel derived from soyoil more profitable, analysts say.
CBOT Dec soyoil ended down 0.12c at 52.48c/lb; Dec soymeal finished down $5.00 at $296.40/short ton.
Courtesy:CME Group
NCDEX Pepper Remains Higher On Limited Stocks
Pepper Futures traded firm owing reports of lower output in India on Wednesday. Prices in Spot however settled 0.24% lower due to increased arrivals. Reports that pepper crop in 2011-12 might fall below last year level of 48,000 tonnes is supporting pepper prices. It expected to be in the range of 42-44 thousand tonnes.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper will also support prices.
Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year. Carryover stocks of pepper with Vietnam till commencement of fresh arrivals in March are projected to be around 15,000 tonnes. (Source: Pepper Trade Board)
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,625 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl $7,200/tonne was quoting its pepper at $7,325 per tonne (f.o.b). Indonesian and Brazil Asta grade is being offered at $7,200 and $7,450/tonne respectively.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 export of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt. Exports from Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have decreased, while exports from Vietnam and India increased.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Wednesday stood at 6 tonnes as compared to 24 tonnes on Tuesday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 8 tonnes.
Production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be 43 thousand tonnes according to the market sources a decline of 5% as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is declined by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice for 2010-11 was around 1.15 lakh tonnes. Pepper production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Wheat Declines On Profit Booking
CHICAGO (Commodity Online):US wheat futures end mostly lower, backpedaling from early gains.
Traders were cautious of risk in the face of European debt uncertainty and worries about sluggish export demand, analysts say.
The absence of a bullish fundamental story to buoy prices encouraged traders to take profits on advances, particularly with export competition from Black Sea region.
CBOT Dec wheat ended down 16c at $6.16 3/4/bushel, Dec KCBT wheat ended 18c lower at $6.87, while Dec MGEX wheat climbed 2 1/4c amid tight farmer holding of supplies to $9.33 1/2.
Courtesy:CME Group
India Soybean Gains On Global Cues
NCDEX December soybean futures traded higher on account of firm overseas market as improved demand from China due to easing monetary policies to spur economic growth. China is planning to more US soybean to increase their stock reserve. According to executives with a state grain processing and trading company, China bought six cargoes (500,000 metric tonnes) of soybeans from the U.S. The move is part of its plan to buy 2 million tons of soybeans.
As per 49th All India Convention on Oilseeds, oils Trade and Industry which was organized by COIIT and hosted by SOPA on November 06, 2001 (Sunday). COIIT estimates, India soybean output in Kharif 2011 at 115 lakh tonnes against 95 lakh tonnes last year.
USDA’s monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month. Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX December RM Seed futures traded higher in the morning hours as firm overseas market, however, price could not sustain higher levels and slipped from high on account of profit taking. Total sowing acreage of RM Seed in Rajasthan increased to 22.58 lakh hectares till November 08, 2011 as compared to 21.50 lakh hectares last year during the same period. Rajasthan is a major producing state of RM Seed in India.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX December Refined Soy oil futures traded higher on 3rd consecutive trading sessions due to firm overseas market as supply concern of palm oil due to heavy rains in Indonesia and Malaysia as well. Better export figures of palm oil during the first 15 days of this month also provided support to the prices.
As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-15 rose 11.6% from a month earlier to 802,917 metric tons..
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010.
However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
CBOT Updates:Corn Drops On Selling Pressure
CHICAGO (Commodity Online) :US corn futures end lower on outside market pressure and a lack of demand.
Grains markets lacked their own direction and succumbed to a risk-off trade as worries about Europe's debt crisis flared up anew, says Don Roose of US Commodities.
A stronger dollar also weighed on market action. "It seems like we have a market that's fairly well-balanced fundamentally," Roose says.
Demand, particularly for exports, remains weak, but supplies are still likely to be tight at least until the next harvest. CBOT December corn ends down 2 3/4c at $6.42 3/4 per bushel.
Courtesy:CME Group
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