The DXY has been in an ascending channel for about 12 months. As the market continues to price in aggressive hikes from the FOMC this year and the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, it makes sense that the U.S. dollar is stronger. However, based on the two conditions listed, most would have expected the U.S. Dollar index would be well over 100 by now. Despite this, EUR/USD has managed to hold well above the 1.0800 level and looks poised to rally, which could weigh on the dollar index as a whole. The 38% retracement and horizontal spike lows near 97.60 is supporting the index near term, and a daily close below the 97.60 level could see a move back to the 96.50, the 61.8% retracement of the January lows to recent 2022 highs.