The dollar intermediate cycle is not expected to bottom until September or October. A reasonable target for gold at that time would be between 1450 and 1550. Silver has completed a full 50% retracement of its intermediate cycle and, along with gold, is now beginning a new intermediate cycle.
- USD – If the dollar gives us a normal duration intermediate cycle, it will not be due to bottom until September or October.
- GOLD – Assuming gold continues to decouple as the dollar completes its final intermediate rally, we could see gold trend generally higher until fall. I would think a reasonable target by then to be be between 1450 and 1550.
- SILVER – The pullback in gold was a bit shallow at only 38%. But silver retraced 50% and that is a completely normal intermediate cycle decline.