Money managers raised their net-long position in Brent crude oil to a new record according to fresh data from the ICE Europe Exchange. As of August 20 the net-long position combining futures and options rose by 14,786 contracts to 259,763 contracts, the highest level since the exchange began recording this data in January 2011.
The increase during the week in question was primarily driven by geopolitical concerns related to Syria, Egypt and Iraq, together with actual supply disruptions in Libya.
The rise brings the net-long position as percentage of total open interest up to 11.4 percent, a level only seen once before last year when worries about an Israeli airstrike on Iran triggered a rally to 128.40 on March 1. This indicates that the net long position has moved into overextended territory which increasingly carries the risk of a sharp correction. For now, the focus on Syria and a potential military intervention from western governments will keep the market supported but traders should keep a close eye on any change in the situation.