BOE And ECB Interest Rate Meetings Ahead

November US ISM Services improved to 54.7 vs. 53.5 previously and helped underpin the US stock market moves higher overnight. ADP Employment missed with 118k vs. 125k forecast and could mean Friday’s NFP numbers might be softer than forecast. The USD gained against the yen and gold but was unchanged against the other majors. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 380k vs. 393k previously.

The Euro (EUR) hit day highs in Asia near 1.3125 before reversing back below 1.3100 in Europe on USD strength given a weak Spanish Debt auction ahead of today’s ECB meeting. The ECB is forecast to hold at 0.75% but focus will be on President Draghi’s Speech. Support was found at 1.3080 and the uptrend still remains in place.

The Sterling (GBP) remained at the 1.6100 level in very tight range which is unusual for the pound which usually trades in a 100 pip+ daily range. The BOE meet tonight to discuss UK interest rates and are widely expected to keep rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 375bn. Looking ahead, ECB Interest Rate Decision forecast to hold at 0.75%. BoE Interest Rate Decision forecast at 1.0% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) resumed its uptrend gaining back to Y82.40 after stronger US data encouraged buyers back to the major. EUR/JPY touched fresh rally highs near Y108 but since then we have seen some profit taking in most crosses during the Asia session Thursday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was quiet at 1.0480 but we found strong resistance here and pulled back to 1.0450 as the Dollar fought back in the US session. The RBA rate cut and weak retail data earlier in the week has been overlooked so far but we have November Employment Data out today that should move the Aussie more aggressively. Q3 GDP was at expectations at 0.5% vs. 0.6% previously. Looking ahead, November Employment Change forecast at 0 vs. 10.7k. November Unemployment Rate forecast at 5.5% vs. 5.4%.

Oil And Gold (XAU) Gold was liquidated for another day falling from $1705 to $1685 in the US session overnight. OIL/USD closed under $88 in a bearish technical move for the energy which has failed multiple times above $89 in recent sessions.

Pairs To Watch
EUR/USD: ECB to help or hurt EUR/USD rally?

AUD/USD: November Employment Data to set mood

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY