AUD/USD for Wednesday, March 12, 2014
The last few days have seen the Australian dollar fall heavily away from the resistance level at 0.91 back down through the key level at 0.90 to a one week low. Towards the end of last week the Australian dollar enjoyed a healthy surge higher from down near 0.89 to hit a three month high just above 0.91. For the best part of the last month or so, the Australian dollar has done very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although last week it did creep a little lower down to a three week low. Earlier last month the Australian dollar enjoyed a strong move higher moving through the previous resistance level at 0.88 and reaching a three week high around 0.8980. For a couple of weeks the Australian dollar continued to make runs at the resistance level of 0.88 only to be rejected again and again and forced lower. During this time the Australian dollar seemed content to remain steady and consolidate just below the key 0.88 level, after its strong fall through most of January.
For the last few months the Australian dollar has established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the previous resistance level at 0.90. Back in January the Australian dollar was able to rally higher pushing through the resistance at 0.90 to a one month high near 0.91, however it has since returned to more familiar territory below the resistance levels at 0.90 and 0.88. After showing some resilience in early December moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD spent the next two weeks turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.88.
After all of its steady good work in the middle of November which saw the AUD/USD steadily move higher from support at 0.93 back up to a one week high near 0.9450, the AUD/USD has since returned all of those gains and then some more. Throughout most of October the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid and steady move higher from the support level at 0.93 up to the resistance level at 0.95 and beyond to a high around 0.9760. It has been all down hill since then. Throughout the first half of September the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid run which was punctuated by a strong surge higher sending it to a then three month high just above 0.95. A couple of months ago the AUD/USD had been trying valiantly to stay above the support level at 0.89 as all week it placed downward pressure but was unable to sustain any break lower.
Australian releases looked sharp last week, and the Aussie responded with strong gains against the US dollar. Retail Sales looked sharp in February, with a strong gain of 1.2%. This easily beat the estimate of 0.5%, and was the indicator's strongest gain since last March. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, so a strong reading from the indicator points is an important sign of economic growth. Trade Balance also looked sharp, posting a surplus of $1.43 billion, crushing the estimate of $0.13 billion. The indicator has been marked by monthly deficits, so a sharp increase in the trade surplus is certainly good news for the economy and the Australian dollar. As well, GDP rose in Q4 and Building Permits also impressed.
AUD/USD Daily chart" title="AUD/USD Daily chart" height="223" width="474"> 
AUD/USD 4 hourly chart " title="AUD/USD 4 hourly chart " height="237" width="474">
AUD/USD March 12 at 01:35 GMT 0.8958 H: 0.9050 L: 0.8947
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.8900 | --- | --- | 0.9100 | 0.9180 | --- |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Wednesday, the AUD/USD is continuing to ease lower after dropping sharply back through the 0.90 level. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents. Current range: trading right around 0.9020.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8900.
• Above: 0.9100 and 0.9180.
OANDA's Open Position Ratios
AUD/USD Open Position Ratios" title="AUD/USD Open Position Ratios" height="28" width="474">
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back above 60% as the Australian dollar has fallen strongly back through the 0.90 level. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:30 (Tue) AU Westpac Consumer Confidence (Mar)
- 00:30 AU Housing Finance (Jan)
- 00:30 AU Lending Finance (Jan)
- 05:00 JP Consumer Confidence (Feb)
- 09:30 UK Trade Balance (Non-EU) (Jan)
- 09:30 UK Visible Trade Balance (World) (Jan)
- 10:00 EU Industrial production (Jan)
- 18:00 US Budget (Feb)
- JP BoJ Publication of Monthly Report