Throughout the last few weeks the Australian dollar has done very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level. Over the course of the last week including at the start of this week, it has fallen down sharply below this level to a support level around 0.8900 where it is presently trading. Earlier last month the Australian dollar enjoyed a strong move higher moving through the previous resistance level at 0.88 and reaching a three week high around 0.8980. For a couple of weeks the Australian dollar continued to make runs at the resistance level of 0.88 only to be rejected again and again and forced lower. During this time the Australian dollar seemed content to remain steady and consolidate just below the key 0.88 level, after its strong fall through most of January. For the last few months the Australian dollar has established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the previous resistance level at 0.90.
Back in January the Australian dollar was able to rally higher pushing through the resistance at 0.90 to a one month high near 0.91. However, it has since returned to more familiar territory below the resistance levels at 0.90 and 0.88. After showing some resilience in early December moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD spent the next two weeks turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.88.
After all of its steady good work in the middle of November which saw the AUD/USD steadily move higher from support at 0.93 back up to a one week high near 0.9450, the AUD/USD has since returned all of those gains and then some more. Throughout most of October the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid and steady move higher from the support level at 0.93 up to the resistance level at 0.95 and beyond to a high around 0.9760. It has been all down hill since then. Throughout the first half of September the AUD/USD enjoyed a solid run which was punctuated by a strong surge higher sending it to a then three month high just above 0.95. A couple of months ago the AUD/USD had been trying valiantly to stay above the support level at 0.89 as all week it placed downward pressure but was unable to sustain any break lower.
Australian releases did not impress last week. Private Capital Expenditure fell by 5.2%, its sharpest drop since April 2009. The reading was much worse than expected, with the estimate standing at -1.0%. This dismal figure comes on the heels of Construction Work Done, which dropped by 1.0%, its fourth decline in five months. The weak numbers certainly were of no help to the Aussie, which has given up close to a cent since Tuesday and finds itself back below the 0.90 level.
AUD/USD Daily Chart" title="AUD/USD Daily Chart" width="474" height="236">
AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart" title="AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart" width="474" height="238">
AUD/USD March 2 at 22:20 GMT 0.8909 H: 0.8927 L: 0.8893
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.8900 | --- | --- | 0.9050 | 0.9080 | 0.9180 |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD is drifting closer and closer to the 0.89 level after struggling at the end of last week to get back above 0.90. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents. Current range: trading just above 0.8900 around 0.8910.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.8900.
• Above: 0.9050, 0.9080 and 0.9180.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back above 60% as the Australian dollar has dropped back below 0.90. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 00:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (Feb)
- 01:00 CN Non-manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 01:45 CN HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 05:00 JP Vehicle Sales (YoY) (Feb)
- 08:58 EU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 09:28 UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 13:30 CA Industrial Product Price (MoM) (Jan)
- 13:30 CA Raw Material Price Index (Jan)
- 13:58 US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 14:00 EU ECB President Draghi's Speech
- 15:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan)
- 23:50 JP Monetary Base (YoY) (Feb)