AUD/USD for Tuesday, March 17, 2015
The Australian dollar has just eased a little lower to start this week as it remains below the key 0.77 level. Over the last week or so the Australian dollar has made a statement and broken strongly through the key 0.77 level which is now providing significant resistance. It has been able to enjoy some short term support around 0.7550 which may be called upon again shortly if it continues to drift lower. At the moment it is providing some hope and keeping the sellers at bay. A few weeks ago the Australian dollar made repeated attempts to move up strongly to the resistance level at 0.7850 however it was rejected every time and sent back easing lower. For over a month it traded within the well established trading range between 0.77 and 0.7850 and many will be hoping it is able to rally and get back within this range. A few weeks ago the Australian dollar moved through the resistance at 0.7850 to reach a new four week high around 0.7900.
In the second half of January, the Australian dollar fell very sharply and break lower from the trading range that had been established roughly between 0.8050 and 0.8200. Back in mid-January it made numerous attempts at the resistance level at 0.82 only to be sent back often before finally finishing that week moving through this key level. In doing so it was able to reach a one month high near 0.83 before being sold back down again towards 0.82 as the resistance and selling activity above this level kicked in. Over the Christmas / New Year period, the Australian dollar seemed to have been content with trading in a narrow range below the resistance at 0.82, which continues to remain a key level as it is presently provides resistance. The Australian dollar experienced a disappointing November and December moving from resistance around 0.88 down to the new lows recently. For a couple of months from September through to November, the Australian dollar did well to stop the bleeding and trade within a range between 0.8650 and 0.88 after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650.
Back at the beginning of September the Australian dollar showed some positive signs as it surged higher again bouncing off support below 0.93 and reaching a new four week high around 0.94 however that all now seems a distant memory. It seems a long way away now but the Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 at the end of July after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95.
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to wait for more economic data before making a further cut to the official cash rate, after facing concerns about speculative lending. Concerns about speculative borrowing and lending, where credit had continued to grow faster than incomes, caused the board to wait for more data before making another rate move, according to minutes of the RBA’s March meeting, when the board kept rates on hold. The RBA saw advantages in receiving more data to indicate whether or not the economy was on the previously forecast path, before moving the cash rate again, as the board members faced a “greater degree of uncertainty about the behaviour of borrowers and savers in a world of very low interest rates”. The board has kept open the opportunity for further rate cuts, arguing that the case to ease monetary policy further might emerge, but members saw benefit in allowing some time for the structure of interest rates and the economy to adjust to the earlier change. The RBA held the official cash rate at its record low level of 2.25 per cent at the March meeting after a surprise February rate-cut, bucking the general consensus that the bank tends to deliver cuts in pairs. The March decision sent the sharemarket reeling and rallied the Australian dollar against the US currency.
AUD/USD March 17 at 01:20 GMT 0.7622 H: 0.7627 L: 0.7617
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.7550 | — | — | 0.7700 | 0.7850 | 0.8200 |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD is rallying higher off some short term support around 0.7600 after finishing last week lower. Current range: trading right below 0.7650 around 0.7620.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.7550.
• Above: 0.7700, 0.7850, and 0.8200.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back down to near 50% as the Australian dollar has eased away again from the new resistance level at 0.7700. The trader sentiment has shifted to being in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:30 (Mon) AU Westpac-MI Leading Index (Feb)
- 23:50 (Mon) JP Customs Cleared Trade (Feb)
- 00:30 AU RBA minutes released
- 03:00 JP BoJ Policy Statement & Governor Kuroda Press Conference
- 05:00 JP Leading indicator (Final) (Jan)
- 10:00 EU HICP (Feb)
- 10:00 EU ZEW (Economic Sentiment) (Mar)
- 12:30 CA Manufacturing sales (Jan)
- 12:30 US Building Permits (Feb)
- 12:30 US Housing Starts (Feb)
- JP BoJ MPC – Overnight Rate
- US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (to 18th)