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Asian Markets: Shanghai Rallies

Published 11/01/2012, 08:10 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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Shanghai Composite rallies as China manufacturing PMI returns to expansion

Economic Data
  • (CN) CHINA OCT MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.2 V 50.2E (first above-50 expansion print in 3 months; Matches 5-month high)
  • (CN) CHINA OCT FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.5 V 49.1E (8-month high); New orders: 51.2; 12-MONTH HIGH
  • (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 EXPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: -6.4% V -6.4%E; IMPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: -2.4% V -1.2%E
  • (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT RPDATA-RISMARK HOUSE PX Y/Y: -1.0% V 1.4% PRIOR (first decline in 5 months)
  • (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT AIG PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDEX M/M: 45.2 V 44.1 PRIOR (8th month of contraction)
  • (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.4 V 45.7PRIOR
  • (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT EXTERNAL TRADE BALANCE: $3.8B V $3.4BE
  • (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) M/M: -0.1% V +0.1%E (first decline in 3 months); Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E; CORE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E; CORE CPI M/M: 0.0%; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4% prior
  • (ID) INDONESIA OCT HSBC PMI MANUFACTURING: 51.9 v 50.5 PRIOR
  • (ID) INDONESIA SEPT TOTAL TRADE BALANCE: $550M V $394M
  • (ID) INDONESIA OCT INFLATION M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 4.6% V 4.6%E; CORE INFLATION Y/Y: 4.6% V 4.4%E
  • (TH) THAILAND OCT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.4%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 1.8% V 2.0%E
  • (VN) VIETNAM OCT HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.7 V 49.2 PRIOR; seventh straight month of sub-50 readings
  • (TW) TAIWAN OCT HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.8 V 45.6 PRIOR

Markets Snapshot (as of 04:00GMT)

  • Nikkei225 +0.1%
  • S&P/ASX -1.3%
  • Kospi -0.7%
  • Shanghai Composite +1.8%
  • Hang Seng +0.5%
  • Dec S&P500 -0.4% at 1,401
  • Dec gold +0.1% at $1,721/oz
  • Dec Crude Oil flat at $86.27/brl
Notes/Observations

Asian equity markets are notably mixed, with China indices well in positive territory while Japan, Australia, and Korea are in the red. Further improvement in mainland manufacturing PMIs going into next week's National Party Congress saw Shanghai Composite rise nearly 2%. Alternatively, Australia's S&P/ASX was the biggest underperformer, as traders once again pared bets for another RBA rate cut at its upcoming decision next week. Fixed income markets are now nearly 50-50 split on expectation of a rate cut vs near-full pricing as recently as last week. US equity futures are down about 0.4% in the front-month S&P500 contract as traders look forward to the release of postponed ADP jobs data, just as the New York financial district continues to recover from the devastating floods on Monday. In the currency markets, JPY weakness saw USD/JPY pair retest the ¥80 handle, rising some 25pips from session lows. Otherwise, the majors traded in tight ranges, with EUR/USD supported by $1.2950 on rumors of progress in euro zone fin min talks related to a 2-year fiscal adjustment extension for Greece. AUD/USD rose nearly 20 pips above $1.0370 following better than expected China HSBC PMI data.

Fixed Income/Currencies/Commodities

  • (CN) PBoC injected CNY379B into the money markets this week (fresh record high) through regular open market operations - China press
  • (CN) China bad banks loans to rise over the next 3-years - Chinese press
  • (JP) Japan Ministry of Finance (MOF) sold ¥2.1T in 0.8% 10-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.7770% v 0.767% prior; Bid to cover: 4.05x v 3.40x prior; MOF also plan to sell ¥5.7B in Bill on Nov 8th, and offers ¥2.3T in 0.8% (0.8% prior) 10-yr notes
  • (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): China's food prices in week ended Sunday mainly stable; Vegetable prices fell 0.4% and pork prices fell 0.1%
  • (US) US IEA: Sees no urgent need for oil stocks release following Hurricane Sandy (update)
  • (KR) Korea Center for International Finance: CDS on South Korea fell to 68bps today, lowest level in over 4 years - Korean press
  • (CN) China Steelmakers Sept Net loss CNY2.38B; YTD Net loss CNY5.53B
Speakers/Political/In the Papers
  • (CN) Citigroup economist: China PMI data "confirms the upward growth momentum as the September economic data have shown" - financial press
  • (CN) China NDRC's Liu Xiaonan: 2012-13 market faces more pressure as supply exceeds demand
  • (CN) China leaders held last meeting before its 18th National Party Congress for Thursday Nov 8th; current Vice President Xi Jinping is expected to be named as the new President.
  • (EU) China Commerce Ministery to begin anti-dumping probe on EU Solar
  • (JP) Moody's: Japan impasse on deficit bill and potential cancellation of JGB auctions are credit negative
  • (JP) Japan PM Noda did not disclose election date following Diet debate; LDP leader Abe's remarks indicated that unless the PM specifies the timing of the lower house dissolution, both opposition parties will not work with the govt in passing key bills during the extraordinary parliamentary session
  • (KR) South Korea Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs: Jan-Sept cargo handling at local seaports rose 2.9% y/y to 996.7M tons - Korean press
  • (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): QE by the Fed and ECB risks hot money flows sparking risks of asset bubbles in emerging economies - Korean press
  • (KR) According to a report from Construction and Economic Research Institute of Korea (CERIK), South Korea construction index in Oct fell to 2012 lows of 58.9 from 70.6 in Sept - Korean press
  • (KR) According to the latest Bank of Korea (BOK) meeting minutes, members voted 6-1 in favor of a rate cut
  • (IN) India PM Econ Advisor Rangarajan: Global economic slowdown to affect India
  • (SG) Moody's comments on Singapore banking system: Sees outlook on banking system Stable but to face some headwinds from expansion
Asia Equities
  • Hyundai Motor 005380.KR: Reports Oct sales 412.2K, +14% y/y
  • Asahi Kasei 3407.JP: Reports H1 Net ¥20.6B v ¥38.2B y/y, Op Profit ¥38.3B v ¥63.7B y/y, Rev ¥787.5B v ¥802.2B y/y
  • Sharp 6753.JP: May lower FY12/13 guidance to Net loss ¥450B from loss ¥250B previously expected; H1 net loss seen around ¥380B - Kyodo News
  • TSE.AU: Affirms FY13 guidance Op profit low end of A$125-135M; Names Graeme Hunt CEO, he has been acting CEO
  • Tokyo Electron 8035.JP: Reports Q2 Net ¥0.4B v ¥10.0B y/y, Op Profit ¥2.9B v ¥13.8B y/y, Rev ¥132B v ¥173B y/y
  • Fujitsu 6702.JP: Reports H1 Net loss ¥11.1B v ¥5.8B y/y, Op Profit ¥7.7B y/y, Rev ¥2.07T v ¥2.09T y/y
  • Samsund SDI 006400.KR: Reports Q3 Net profit KRW1.2T v KRW0.1T y/y, Rev KRW904B, +4% q/q, +18% y/y (update) ; Expanded its market share for lithium ion rechargeable batteries in Q2 from 27.3% to 28%; Panasonic market share seen down from 19.9% to 19.6%
  • Mitsubishi Heavy 7011.JP: Awarded ¥22B order in Malaysia - Kyodo News
  • DBS.SG: Reports Q3 Net S$856M v S$762M y/y; Net interest income S$1.33B v S$1.21B y/y
  • 6367.JP: May report H1 op profit around ¥50B, up 4% y/y but below prior target of ¥55B - Nikkei News
  • Mitsui Chemical 4183.JP: Reports H1 Net loss ¥15.3B v profit ¥13.4B y/y, Op Profit ¥1.5B v ¥28.7B y/y, Rev ¥680.5B v ¥755.8B y/y
  • Eisai 4523.JP: Reports H1 Net ¥24.5B v ¥33.3B y/y, Op Profit ¥37.3B v ¥50.4B y/y, Rev ¥288.5B v ¥331.0B y/y
  • Astellas 4503.JP: Reports H1 Net ¥57.4B v ¥52Be, Op Profit ¥88.4B v ¥75Be, Rev ¥476.8B v ¥476Be; To buyback 4.8M shares (1.0% of shares outstanding)
U.S. Equities
  • ALL: Reports Q3 $1.46 v $1.15e; R $8.13B v $7.28Be
  • CZR: Reports Q3 -$4.05 v -$1.15e; R $2.19B v $2.20Be
  • HTZ: Reports Q3 $0.63 v $0.60e; R $2.52B v $2.59Be
  • MET: Reports Q3 $1.32 v $1.28e, R$16.61B v 16.7Be
  • PRE: Reports Q3 $3.90 v $2.06e, R$1.63B v $1.37Be
  • V: Reports Q4 $1.54 v $1.50e, R$2.73B v $2.67Be
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