Asian Growth Slowing: Key Data In China And Singapore Eyed

In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, previews Chinese PMI data in light of other reports which have pointed to a slowing economy and recent comments from authorities which have presented an economic view that is more negative than just six months ago. He also takes a brief look at Singapore where data points to a slowing, but still performing, economy.

In China focus is particularly on the flash estimate for the HSBC purchasing managers index, which is a preview of the non-government view on how China’s economy is faring. The previous report showed a rebound to 51 - which is just above the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction. This time the estimate is expected to be closer to the 50 level. While the flash index is seen as an important indicator its track record in terms of giving a true indication of the actual situation in China can be debated, says Andrew.

Last week the People’s Bank of China released its quarterly monetary policy report which pointed to a shift towards loosening and on the weekend the Chinese Vice Premier Qishan spoke of a serious crisis forthcoming. Especially Qishan’s comments have drawn much attention as they are so far the most depressing from a high-level authority and are being interpreted as an indication of some upcoming initiatives to boost the local economy.

With inflation looking like it has peaked near term in China and with prices coming off in the housing sector there is an expectation now that some monetary easing from the PBOC - probably in the form of a reduction in the reserve ratio requirement rather than an official interest rate cut – could be on the cards sooner rather than later.
 
Meanwhile, the economic outlook in Asia seems somewhat mixed with Singapore reporting relatively strong growth in the third quarter. While Asia versus Europe is still showing strong growth, Singapore is the exception in the Asian region with the heavily export oriented economy seen facing tough times during the remainder of the year. This is expected to be evident in the industrial production report due later in the week. Meanwhile, consumer prices are also seen falling due to declining food prices, in line with developments elsewhere in Asia.