The number three, a symbol of unity, marks Turkey’s history and provides a cardinal reference point for the country’s modern economy. More prosaically, despite recent geopolitical and financial upheavals, the Turkish economy remains relatively dynamic. Yet the substitution of public spending for private spending raises questions about the quality of its policy mix and the sustainability of growth, at a time when potential GDP is slowing and the country faces chronic macroeconomic imbalances. The predominance of political and geopolitical issues has relegated essential economic reforms into the background, while relations with Europe have become tempestuous.
The number three occurs repeatedly throughout Turkish history. To cite but two red letter dates, the year 1453 marks the fall of Constantinople and the Byzantine Empire, and 1923, the birth of the Republic of Turkey from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire, defeated during the First World War. In 1963, Turkey signed the Ankara Agreement creating an association with the European Economic Community, a symbol of the country’s anchorage to Europe. The introduction to the agreement mentions the prospects of full EEC membership. After three coups d’etat, Turkey returned to a civil regime in 1983, and the year 2003 marked another political turning point with Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rise to power. Despite 15 years of political continuity, the outbreak of social unrest in 2013 marked a rupture in Turkey’s trajectory, the economic consequences of which are still emerging. The predominance of political and geopolitical issues have relegated essential economic reforms (see below) into the background, and relations with Europe have become tempestuous.
Despite a narrow victory, the referendum on constitutional reform in mid-April 2017 ratified the switch to a presidential system and reinforced the powers of the executive arm, giving the president a free hand, at least until the next general elections in November 2019. Yet the major infrastructure projects launched in recent years, the most emblematic of which are the Third Bosporus Bridge and Istanbul’s third airport (the city’s third name after Byzantium and Constantinople), are part of a longer term vision: in 2023, President Erdogan wants to celebrate the Republic’s centennial at the head of a strong and modern Turkey.
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by Sylvain BELLEFONTAINE