American Financial Gears Up For Growth, Apt To Hold It Now

American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:AFG) remains poised for growth, riding on an impressive profile into that direction, consistent price increase in property and casualty business, plus effective capital deployment. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) insurer looks promising, banking on a number of growth drivers.

Positive Growth Projections: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is $6.80 on revenues of $987.2 million for 2017, reflecting a year-over-year increase 12.77%. For 2018, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $6.75, though reflecting a slight slip of 0.74%.

American Financial has long-term expected earnings per share growth of 6.30%.

Northbound Estimates: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2017 has moved up 4.8% in the last 30 days, while the same for 2018 has inched up 1.5% over the same time frame.

An Outperformer: American Financial’s shares have rallied 15.37% year to date, outperforming the industry’s increase of 8.84%. The shares have also outperformed the S&P 500, increasing 8.48% over the same time frame.

Positive Earnings Surprise History: American Financial has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last three quarters. The company’s average four-quarter surprise is 17.03%.

Growth Drivers in Place

American Financial maintains a solid operational performance and estimates Specialty P&C net premiums written to grow 3-7% in 2017. Specialty casualty group will generate net written premium growth of 7-11%, up from the prior guidance of 5-9%. Net written premiums in specialty financial group are projected in the range of flat to 4% increase.

The company also expects a price rise in its property and casualty business between flat to 1% increase.

American Financial has always maintained a combined ratio that compares favorably with industry average. The company now estimates a combined ratio between 92% and 94% in 2017. The property and transportation group is estimated to deliver combined ratio between 91% and 95%, while specialty casualty group is projected to report combined ratio between 94% and 96%. The combined ratio for the specialty financial group is projected in the range of 84-88%.

American Financial enjoys a strong capital position (excess capital was approximately $1.1 billion on Jun 30, 2017) with moderate adjusted financial leverage around 20% along with good cash flow and an interest coverage ratio. This has helped the insurer announce a special dividend of $1.50 per share in the last quarter. The company also has 4.1 million shares remaining under its authorization as of Aug 1, 2017. American Financial expects to hold back about $200-$300 million of the excess capital to maintain flexibility.

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked stocks from the same industry are Atlas Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFH) , Markel Corporation (NYSE:MKL) and Mercury General Corporation (NYSE:MCY) , each flaunting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Atlas Financial underwrites commercial automobile insurance policies in the United States. The company delivered a four-quarter average positive surprise of 57.94%.

Markel markets and underwrites specialty insurance products in the United States and internationally. The company delivered positive surprises in all the last four quarters with the average beat being 21.06%.

Mercury General writes personal automobile insurance in the United States. The company delivered positive surprises in all the trailing four quarters with an average beat of 1.06%.

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