A Quiet Start to the Week: Retail Traders Bid Up Euro

Another quiet start to the week following last week's rather busy Thursday and Friday.

Poor French Industrial Production and Italian GDP figures didn't really stop the Euro grinding higher today.

Retail Traders have been continuing to buy the Euro, so today's push higher is likely a result of this buying. In each of our charts marked LFData, we provide a view of the Retail Order books the yellow chart with a blue line at the 50 level, showing long term trend (above 50 is a Bearish signal, Below Bullish as a contrarian view) and the Red and Green chart showing a short and medium term trend, with Red above Green a sell signal and Green above Red a Buy Signal.

German and Italian CPI data is due tomorrow, followed by Spanish and Italian bond auctions. We suspect the week could continue in a similar vein to the last, with little to no real trading until the later half of the week. However, there is some lower level data which could spark some movement.

EUR/USD
The euro pushed slightly higher today, but this felt more correctional given the quiet. The pair has found strong support at the 1.3000 to 1.2960 levels and if it continues to hold, we are likely to see the pair push higher before a lower trend continues.
COT Report on the Weekly Chart still points to further potential downside.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3100
Strategy: Look for short opportunities on any failed tests of resistance.


GBP/USD
The pound remains weak, but found some interim support today at the 1.4865 level. There could be a move towards the 1.4800 level, but it would not be surprising to see the pair find some interim support and bounce towards the 1.5080 level before any further move lower.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.4865 / 1.4800 (monthly support)
Resistance: 1.5000 / 1.5190
Strategy: Look for sell signals on any retracements higher.


AUD/USD
Having gapped lower at the open, the Aussie pushed higher today back towards key resistance at the 1.30 level.
We maintain our short position but given the recent chop in this pair, we could easily see the Aussie push higher before a move lower.
We would now need to see a strong break below the 1.020 level in order to see further downside in this pair.
Personal Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.0200
Resistance: 1.0290
Strategy: Holding short.


USD/JPY
The pair pushed slightly higher today, but continues to look toppish with weekly RSI at all time highs. However this pair has been on such a run, it is hard to look for short opportunities. Potentially, other yen crosses offer better value but with wide stops, it is hard to justify the positions.
Our in house system has now closed its longs from the 93.50 mark, and is sidelined for clear signals given the Retail Order has now moved to Long.
Personal Bias: Neutral
Support: 94.50
Resistance: 100 ... maybe
Strategy: sidelined - wait for clear entry signals.



USD/CAD
The pair could offer potential short options if we get a retracement. Close of Friday was Bullish, so it's key to wait for clear signals. Long term we remain USD/CAD Bulls for now, but suspect it is due a retracement as the order book is at extreme levels.

Safe play is to wait for the retracement to enter this pair long again. Those a little more risk tolerant could look for a counter trend trade short towards the 1.200, 1.170 mark; key to counter trend trade is to get a clear short signal.


GBP/JPY
An interesting setup on this pair from Friday night offers an interesting yen strength trade.An ideal situation would be to see the order book reflect the potential for a move lower with a switch to net long in Retail Traders, but it does offer good risk reward on a potential Head and Shoulders pattern.