EU and US futures are stable. The fall in commodity prices triggered by expectations of a crash in the business cycle appears to have stopped, followed by a decline in bond yields. However, the recession is looming, and important central banks have decided to ignore it, implementing only restrictive policies to fight inflation.
In a report, Nomura said a recession is very likely in the United States and eleven other major economies in the next twelve months. The big slowdown is wanted and managed by central banks. Rob Subbaraman, head of global markets research, Asia ex-Japan, of the Japanese investment bank, told CNBC,
"Many of these are working as if they only had a mandate, the fight against inflation. In order not to lose credibility, their most valuable asset, they have decided to be very aggressive."
The analyst expects the recession in the United States to last just over a year. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting confirmed more or less what is known about the speed and intensity of the monetary tightening. The next hike, this month, will most likely be 75 basis points, and more than 50 basis points should come in the remainder of the year.
The minutes don't mention anything about the growth that drives the market, but the situation can change quickly. In the time that has elapsed since the June meeting, the board members may have noted that their induced recession is coming.
Hot Stocks and Instruments
Telecom Italia (BIT:TLITn) + 1%: The board of directors has given a mandate to the chief executive officer, Pietro Labriola, to carry out any useful activity for the achievement of the strategic objective of overcoming vertical integration and reducing the level of debt of the company through transfer and enhancement operations of some group assets.
GameStop (NYSE:GME) + 6%: The IT store chain announced a one to four share split.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is in great shape, with the prices that follow the rebound of the indices reaching the area of 22,000.
Conclusion
Regarding Telecom, as mentioned in the previous articles, debt has always been one of the main problems of this company. We will now see if the CEO can transform Telecom into a normal company that produces profits by moving from theory to practice.
It will not be easy. Many of its predecessors, for various reasons, have failed. My assessment does not change at the moment, with the company that has no future at the moment with zero profitability and low growth prospects. The stock can easily go into the 0.15 area.
Gamestop: split is always good. The aim is to give more investors the opportunity to buy the shares, which would be more challenging to access with a high unit price. Analyzing the company, however, we are faced with insufficient levels of profitability, no profits are expected until 2024, and the outlook is negative. The stock is worth $60.
Regarding Bitcoin, I see the value of the cryptocurrency as around $25,000, very close to current prices. To make any operations, it is ideal to wait for a fall towards 15,000/10,000 for extended operations and 35,000/40,000 for short operations.