🔮 Better than the Oracle? Our Fair Value found this +42% bagger 5 months before Buffett bought itRead More

3 Numbers to Watch Today: EZ GDP, US Industrial Production, FOMC

Published 02/15/2012, 05:21 AM
Updated 03/19/2019, 04:00 AM
601988
-
BMAm
-

European stocks are rising 0.6 percent in early trading following comments from the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan that China is willing to facilitate Europe in solving its debt crisis through the European Stability Mechanism. In addition, we have several interesting macro events today, three of which we have selected to watch out for.

* Eurozone 4Q GDP (10:00 GMT) expected to decline: Since the debt crisis escalated back in August, economic data coming out of the Eurozone has been dismal and consensus is now looking at a 0.4 percent QoQ decline in Eurozone GDP. However with better than expected Q4 GDP figures from France and Germany this morning there is an upside risk to the consensus estimate for Eurozone GDP. France's Q4 GDP came out at 0.2 percent QoQ compared to an expected 0.2 percent decline. The surprise was driven by better net trade figures and decent household consumption. In Germany, 4Q GDP figures came in at minus 0.2 percent QoQ beating estimates of minus 0.3 percent QoQ with 3Q GDP figures revised up to 0.6 percent QoQ from 0.5 percent. Today's surprise in German GDP was driven by higher than expected investment in the construction sector. Unless peripheral Europe severely contracted in Q4 there is a chance that Eurozone Q4 GDP did better than consensus has been expecting. Please note: as we write this Italy Q4 GDP came out at minus 0.5 percent QoQ compared to only minus 0.2 percent QoQ expected.

* US industrial production figures (14:15 GMT) for January to rise: December's industrial production figures rose 0.4 percent MoM on business equipment and today The Street is looking for 0.7 percent MoM growth in January as mild wheather and stabilisation in Europe are not dragging US manufacturing as much as was feared months ago. In general US manufacturing has been surprisingly resilient despite the European debt crisis and demand from emerging markets has offset a slowdown in exports to Europe.

* FOMC meeting (19:00 GMT), the same song? The minutes will likely be more negative on the economy compared to what recent economic data might suggest with focus yet again on the unsatisfactory unemployment rate of 8.3 percent. Given the latest guidance of exceptionally low interest rates through 2014 it will be interesting to hear whether that expectation has been revised given the recent data flow, in particular the strong Nonfarm Payrolls figures released for January. Otherwise we expect much of the same song from the minutes.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.