Is it time to sell real estate when the majority, believing in the plateau of prosperity and an unbreakable trend, owns it? If it sounds too good to be true, it likely is.
Blackstone (NYSE:BX) Group, the world's largest alternative asset manager, just gathered $15.8 billion for the largest fund to invest in global real estate. This move, driven by safe haven capital flows (demand) from Europe, Asia and sovereign debt, represents the will of the majority. Blackstone is nothing more than a conduit attempting to profit from it. If the majority already owns real estate, who's left to buy when rising taxes and regulations force unplanned liquidations?
Insight tracks and deciphers the flow of sentiment, price, leverage, and time - the message of the market to define the trend in terms of the cycle of accumulation and distribution for subscribers.
Summary
The long-term oscillator (LTCO) defines bear opportunity for the homebuilders.
Price
A negative long-term trend oscillator (LTCO) defines a down impulse from 474.01 to 427.38 since September 2015 (chart 1 and 2). The bears control the trend until reversed by a bullish crossover. Compression (white circles), the third phase of the CEC cycle, generally anticipates this change.
A close above 751.65 jumps the creek and returns the trend mark up. A close below 111.69 breaks the ice and transitions the trend to mark down.
Chart 1 2000-2025
Concentration
HBC3 and HBC4, long-term cycles approaching extreme Z-Scores, suggest a mid cycle decline (chart 3). Continuation of the decline, the pushing of HBC3 or HBC4 closer to -2, should complete the bottoming process as the majority turns bearish.
Chart 2