ING Economic and Financial Analysis

FX markets continue to trade with cautious optimism on the view that a US slowdown can rein in a hawkish Fed and that a reset in China policy will (eventually) see resurgent consumer demand and...

A lot of central bank comments will hit newswires today, but the odds of any meaningful signal being communicated to markets are low. On balance, we expect bonds to retain their bullish bias as long...

A weaker US dollar index provided some support to the commodity complex, while expectations for an improvement in the Chinese demand outlook provided a further boostEnergy- USD Supports the ComplexThe...

Energy - Prompt Demand Concerns The weak start to the New Year has continued for oil. ICE Brent fell by a further 5.19% yesterday, which left the market trading convincingly below US$80/bbl. Time...

Fed Insists on Higher for Longer in Their Latest MinutesMarket reaction to the FOMC minutes was muted. Breakevens, real rates and nominal rates did not do much at all. Although at the margin there has...

USD: FOMC Minutes Barely Move the NeedleLast night's release of FOMC minutes could have been perceived as slightly hawkish, yet FX and interest rate markets barely budged. At the heart of the...

Celebrating the drop in German inflation may be premature and headwinds to bond performance, especially for those denominated in euros, remain. The Fed minutes might not fulfill all of the...

Energy - Milder Weather Continues to Weigh on GasEnergy markets came under significant pressure yesterday, along with the rest of the commodities complex. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed heavily on...

The dollar has started 2023 with some stability after suffering heaving losses for large parts of the last quarter. Asset managers keen to earn their fees will be looking to put money to work and will...

50bp With a Hawkish Twist The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise the Fed Funds target rate range by 50bp to 4.25-4.5%, in line with market expectations. The text repeats that officials...

ICE Brent prices settled higher for a third consecutive day yesterday following an upward revision in the oil demand forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, the weekly petroleum...

Markets need to re-think the sustainability of the bond rally seen in the past month. Nominal and real rates are seen up. But not by very much. With no sense as of yet that the Fed is done, we...

The predominant view, judging by today's CPI release and market moves in recent weeks, remains that inflation is on its way down and should allow the Fed to slow, and eventually stop, its hiking cycle...

Energy – U.S. Shale Production Recovery Continues The oil market strengthened for a second consecutive session amid supply disruptions and as China further eased its COVID restrictions....

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, tried his best to talk up the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate policy story, but the market didn’t believe him yesterday and will be even...

The oil market received a boost yesterday from multiple factors. ICE Brent managed to settle more than 3.2% higher on the day. Most risk assets rallied on the back of the US Fed chairman signaling...