ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Higher than expected US inflation has seen an extra 25bp added to expectations of the Fed tightening cycle, yield curves invert further, equities fall sharply and the dollar surge. The spectre of the...

The number of workers classified as long-term sick has jumped dramatically in the past couple of months, and that's one reason why firms are still struggling to source the staff they need. While...

Energy: Oil BouncesThe retreat in the US Dollar has provided a boost to oil prices, with ICE Brent briefly trading back above US$95/bbl at one stage yesterday. Despite this rebound, there are still...

The dollar correction may extend a little further today as slowing U.S. CPI could help risk sentiment further. However, Fed rate expectations should not be affected, and optimism about the Ukraine...

The absence of a post-bank holiday rebound means July's GDP grew by only 0.2%, and we should expect further volatility over the next few months. But big picture, the announcement of an energy price...

The hefty falls in equity markets through the first half 2022 have put quite a dent in household wealth, but we have to remember strong gains over the past two years means it is still up $27tn on...

It has taken some time, but money markets now price the Fed policy rate at 4% for next spring. A speech by the Fed's Christopher Waller on Friday re-iterated that a 4% Fed funds rate would be seen...

The broader strength seen in the U.S. Dollar has weighed heavily on the commodities complex, whilst Chinese demand concerns are certainly not helping. For oil, we will need to keep an eye on OPEC+ and...

The Ethereum blockchain is on the verge of a major and risky upgrade. This upgrade, if successful, would greatly reduce electricity use. This, in turn, would increase Ethereum’s acceptability to...

Oil prices came under further pressure yesterday, despite OPEC+ agreeing on a small supply cut for October. Meanwhile, supply disruption in the metals market continues to grow, with further aluminium...

OPEC+ members surprised the market yesterday by agreeing to cut their output target by 100Mbbls/d for October. However, given that OPEC+ has been producing well below production targets for some time...

Central bankers increasingly acknowledge that the battle to bring inflation back to target will cause a recession. Late stages in economic cycles have typically been good for the dollar and bad for...

Relative equity performance is becoming a bigger driver of foreign exchange moves, and the energy crisis in Europe does suggest euro assets will struggle to regain the market's confidence. Elsewhere,...

We will remember Jackson Hole not just for Powell's hawkish speech, but also for the ECB gearing up its own hawkishness – 75bp hikes are not just for the Fed. Even if just an attempt to invoke...

The Economic Sentiment Indicator fell modestly from 98.9 to 97.6 in August. Both industry and services indicate weakening economic activity. Meanwhile, recession prospects are causing more moderation...

It was a volatile start to the week for energy markets. European natural gas prices sunk, whilst oil moved higher. The next week will be key for markets. For natural gas, we will need to see whether...