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Cumberland Advisors Cumberland Advisors

Cumberland Advisors's Opinion & Analysis.
Featured here: a complete archive of all posts and research produced by Cumberland Advisors, including current material.
Q1: A Look Back By David Kotok - Mar 30, 2015

A Tale Of Two ShocksDuring the first quarter of 2015, US stock markets were buffeted by two substantial shocks. The buffeting continues into the second quarter. The first shock involved the Energy...

Negative Interest Rates: Here To Stay? By David Kotok - Mar 20, 2015

As markets focused on Chair Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) removal of the word patient from Wednesday’s statement following the latest FOMC meeting, Sveriges Riksbank...

Abenomics And The J-Curve By Bill Witherell - Mar 16, 2015

The global economy has been experiencing very substantial moves in exchange rates. The likely effects of these changes in the relative value of national currencies on the respective economies are an...

The Euro-Dollar Riot By David Kotok - Mar 13, 2015

We open this commentary by trying to simplify a very complex trade.Think of yourself as the corporate treasurer of a midsized American company. You have your basic business activities in the United...

NASDAQ 5000: Crash? Bubble? Fair Value? By David Kotok - Mar 04, 2015 1

Almost fifteen years ago, on April 1, 2000, we wrote and published a piece entitled “Will the NASDAQ sell-off become a crash?”In preparing that piece we evaluated the stock market and made...

Greece: Act 2 Commences By Bill Witherell - Feb 27, 2015

Act 1 of the Greek tragedy came to an end this week with Greece obtaining an interim four-month financing agreement in exchange for a lengthy but somewhat vague list of reform commitments. After...

Energy, Stocks, XLE: Buy, Sell, Or Hold? By David Kotok - Feb 25, 2015

“4Q14 Energy Sector Earnings Growth Estimates (YOY) Blended Earnings Actual and Estimates -22% as of 2/24/15”—(Fundstrat) “The magnitude and speed of the collapse in oil has...

Cumberland’s Take On FOMC Minutes By Bob Eisenbeis - Feb 19, 2015

Careful reading of the FOMC minutes provides interesting insights as to the dilemma and the uncertainties policy makers face as they struggle with both interpreting the path that the economy has been...

Greece: Positive Interdependence? By David Kotok - Feb 09, 2015

Years ago, Catherine Mann (Brandeis, OECD, GIC board) set out an articulate thesis about interdependencies, both negative and positive. She used the metaphor of the alcoholic and the liquor store.The...

Goodhart’s Law By Cumberland Advisors - Feb 08, 2015

I. Goodhart’s Law “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” – Charles Goodhart When it was first introduced in 1975, Goodhart’s Law focused...

A Tale Of 3 Central Banks By David Kotok - Feb 03, 2015

Over the years we have posted an aggregate central bank balance sheet chart on our website. The current chart includes only three central banks: the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve...

The Fed And Payments By Bob Eisenbeis - Feb 02, 2015

Last Monday the Federal Reserve released a little-noticed 58-page report entitled “Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payment System.” The study outlines the Fed’s proposal to address...

What Patient Means In Fedspeak By David Kotok - Jan 29, 2015

1. the quality of being patient, as the bearing of provocation, annoyance, misfortune, or pain, without complaint, loss of temper, irritation, or the like. 2. an ability or willingness to suppress...

Is It Time For European Equities? By Bill Witherell - Jan 27, 2015

The European Central Bank (ECB) has at last decided to utilize its final weapon, massive and open-ended balance-sheet expansion through the purchasing of sovereign and agency debt, to fight deflation...

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