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Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC

Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC's Opinion & Analysis.
Featured here: a complete archive of all posts and research produced by Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC, including current material.
Powell: Still Strong; Markets: AYFKM By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Dec 20, 2018

The official statement that accompanies each every FOMC policy action is by nature bland and sterile. Still, despite the sparseness of printed words those that are included can say a lot. Here’s...

China's Economic Policy: Sometimes Bad News Is Just Right By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Dec 14, 2018

There is some hope among those viewing bad news as good news. In China, where alarms are currently sounding the loudest, next week begins the plenary session for the State Council and its working...

Policy Pauses: Canada Looks To Be First By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Dec 06, 2018

The first central banker to blink wasn’t Jay Powell, it was Stephen Poloz. The Bank of Canada has been steadily raising its policy rate like the Fed, or had been. It was widely expected that...

In A Booming Economy, You Buy And Build Houses By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Nov 25, 2018

We can add realtors to the list of those who are angry with Jay Powell. The housing market continued its perplexing slump in October, according to a broad section of data encompassing everything from...

Retail Sales Marked By Revisions By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Nov 16, 2018

Retail sales rebounded 0.8% in October 2018 from September 2018, but it’s the downward revisions to the prior months that are cause for attention. The estimates for particularly September were...

Bond Bull Bull By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Oct 31, 2018

On February 12, 1999, the Bank of Japan announced that it was going full zero. Japan’s central bank would from that day forward push the overnight uncollateralized lending (interbank) rate to...

Fake US Boom No Match For The Calendar By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Oct 26, 2018

The manufacturing renaissance at the base of this supposed US economic is disappearing. It is unsurprising, quite predictable actually. First, there was the cleanup from last year’s major storms...

COT Blue: A Short-Term Path For Powell By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Oct 23, 2018

On December 12, 2007, the Federal Reserve announced its entry into emergency “non-standard” policy measures. In a belated attempt to “address elevated pressures in short-term funding...

Just The One More Boom Month For Industrial Production By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Oct 17, 2018

The calendar last month hadn’t yet run out on US Industrial Production as it had for US Retail Sales. The hurricane interruption of 2017 for industry unlike consumer spending extended into last...

Raining On Chinese Prices By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Oct 17, 2018

It was for a time a somewhat curious dilemma. When it rains it pours, they always say, and for China toward the end of 2015 it was a real cloudburst. The Chinese economy was slowing, dangerous...

China Reopens With Another Dollar Warning By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Oct 09, 2018

It’s one of those useless explanations that while technically true tells us nothing of value about the situation. The Chinese are never boring when coming back from a Golden Week holiday. This...

Make Your Case, Jay By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Sep 28, 2018

June 13 sticks out for both eurodollar futures as well as IOER. On the surface, there should be no bearing on the former from the latter. They are technically unrelated; IOER being a current rate...

U.S. Data: Exhibit A For No Growth By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Sep 28, 2018

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised Q2 GDP to a 4.07464% continuously compounded annual rate from 4.13987%. More importantly, the BEA provided revised benchmark estimates for corporate...

One Fragile Year In Review: It Was A Warning By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Sep 06, 2018

One year ago today, something broke. It wasn’t a big thing, practically a footnote seemingly not worth mainstream attention. Out of nowhere, the 4-week T-bill yield spiked. On Friday, September...

Mispriced Bonds Are Everywhere By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Aug 31, 2018

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream...

Consumer Confidence Is Through The Roof; Spending, Not So Much By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Aug 30, 2018

According to the Conference Board, US consumers are sky high. The business association’s index measuring consumer confidence jumped to a level it hasn’t seen since the apex of the dot-com...

Anticipating How Second T-Bill Deluge Will Be Received By Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC - Aug 29, 2018

Effective federal funds (EFF) was 1.92% again yesterday. That’s now eight in a row just 3 bps underneath the “technically adjusted” IOER. If indeed the FOMC has to make another one...

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