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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
223.28
-4.82(-2.11%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Maja Wallengren @SpillingTheBean *BREAKING: End of Oct and NEW cold front to hit Brazil later this week with potential to provoke MORE hail storms in south-central #coffee #KC_ regions!
Question: does anyonr know of any other commodities that spent over a year in consolidation after a >2x surge? Curious about parallels.
Distribution i guess more than consolidation
ok lets just say “range bound”… question still stands thiugh
after distribution sudden selloff
When will go up us coffe…?buy or sell at present stage?
london down 1%
todAY relief ?
What about the current hailstorms that are happening in parts of Minas Gerais. Anyone local who can share information with us?
I saw some videos from the Lajinha region, it was terrible, seedling nurseries totally destroyed.
https://www.agazeta.com.br/es/cotidiano/chuva-de-granizo-destroi-lavouras-no-interior-de-aguia-branca-1022
There are also other places within Mina Gearais. You culd check youtube chanel "Revista Cafeicultura" At some places it was very bad
shoutout to Emmanuel who called September reversal a yr before it happened... folks were drinking bulls milk and kool-aid back then..
let it ride.. let it ride... let gravity do all the work
Technicals aside (cause you should always follow technicals risk wise), you have to decide for yourself in what you would like to believe: 1) common sense and historical precedents (cycles, etc) or 2) magic powder. 70mb or 100mb makes no difference if production is 35mb and export is 33mb. What is left behind the export as what is the real size of the crop you will never know - currently, there is no instrument to evaluate those numbers within the range, that may be effectively used. Drought, frost, hail, expensive ferts, etc - were real events, documented. Some farms were switched to grains, etc - real facts, documented. Did it ******brazilian coffee industry? No, fortunately, it didn't.
You have to assume that 40mb crop vs 33mb export provides 7mb surplus for regular market (normal quality, etc). Now, a specially after the slump, most will consider 40mb as min crop for A no matter what. Then, historically speaking, Brazil may satisfy whatever reqsonable export as annual surplus of srtocks, according to this view, is always bigger then increase in export.
For everyone who believes in it, 20c puts are very atractive still :).
Current grand solar minima cycle promises a lot of weather and geopolitical disasters as it was documentally proven during previous one. So, and a specially now (after pullback to 170 area or so), potential move up seems to be bigger than potential move down. Another thing is the mentality/psychology of regular farmer: sofisticated long term conspiracy is not there. Farming is very hard and stressfull process.
OK, guys, jokes aside. I have a question for you guys, especially the Brazilians, and I'm asking for an honest answer. Do you really think the next harvest has the potential to become record-breaking? 70 million bags or more? How does your farm look compared to the last bloom, the condition is much better?Honestly, I personally don't believe in these great predictions, the next harvest should be a low year, we still have no confirmation that the cycles have changed.Colombia also has its troubles, and I haven't heard that they have recovered.The current price declines are the result of panic after the loss of supports and putting everything on one card, the next crop will be great, the weather until harvest will be good, we will make it to that time without trouble because the stocks are sufficient.Maybe this scenario will come true?Please give me your opinions!
The next crop is projecting good numbers but I don't believe in 70 mlb or more.. Trees suffered a lot last 2 years and the cycles, as you said, have changed! But the fact is that freights are geting cheaper and the container situation looks better.  Next 2 months will answer the stock question, because nobody is carrying, or carrying less, regarding the inverted spread. Producers/private companies doing the same (i think). There is a lot of futures coffee bought at lowers price that are delayed and waiting for an opportunitie to fix that situation. I don't think there is a lot of coffee available for now, but at other hand demand is shrinking (Europe) and not many new bussiness being done.
  as you said the plant have memory. And what it suffered in the last two years, even with the perfect climate, will not become a new record.
Brazilian crop in 2022 : 45mi. In 2023 : 50 - 60mi. I am sure of that... Do not beleave me... Came and see...you will destroy future coffee supplies in brazil by practicinig this prices. COME and SEE !!!
25k bags in queue on ICE, new coffee is arriving to ICE!
this is old coffee once rejected , if you delivery to ICE you lose a lot of money. Importer buying FV 17/18 for -9 FOB
Some might actually think, it´s a little oversold. LOL
Panicked farmers are now selling everything they've been hiding for later to sell at $3 and up. Suddenly, there is an abundance of coffee on the market. KC is dropping like a stone.
Of course they have just harvested the crop. That coffee should be shipped in the next few months. Or do you think that coffee produces every day of the year?
I well remember the 2020 super crop, there were no trucks for transport, the coffee used to stay more than 3 days waiting for transport, queues to unload at the warehouses. And for the benefit of the cafes, how time consuming it was. This at bad prices. Now quiet, with prices in the range of 210, it was supposed to have a rush on sales, right? Maybe it's happening?
There is. And she was forgetting me. The plants were eye-popping, branches and rosettes full of fruits, it was very normal to see, unlike now that it is only in one and another plot.
To have 13 or 14 months worth of gians wiped out in one month is astonishing......
Not taking profits at 220 is insane to me. coffee has historically very rarely been this high. You got greedy
Where's Jason today?
Wouldn't that be funny. I still think 170 is bottom, maybe further. I'm still waiting to book contracts
thumbs up Jason
Jason was ripperred
I suggest everyone who is very scared to look at monthly chart and evaluate the retracement of 50% for the start - it will bring to 175 area more or less (assuming that current wave is wave 4 out of 5 as example, and it started at 92 area). 61.2% will bring it to 160 area respectively.
Stop loss is the key :).
For those who are not short, trying to find a fund right now seems like a task for the big ones. The R/R is huge. IMO
MGom True. Most will wait for multiple confirmations and then will start buying, although squeeze is typical at overdone levels after panic moves... In your opinion, which month is the best for $4 calls in 2023 for those who still believe ? :)
what a manipulated joke this is by large players
Big ones selling off never been so easy with COT lol
Maks but COT is insanely bullish. You know nothing Maks.
would you please share your thoughts here. time for a test up? then maybe a retest of this area? 🤔 Only MG sorry but way to much noise.
in this level, would you buy or sell?
None, it's too risky, you are too late to the selling party and buying here is just gambling. It bounced of 181 but I doubt that level will hold for long
If Lula wins free coffee for all lol
😂😂😂
Marks, on the contrary. Political promises of this are cheap food, and how can we have cheap food? Brazilian taxation is already one of the most expensive in the world. Cheapest dollar? Perhaps, left-wing parties are seen as enemies of large rural producers and entrepreneurs so I highly doubt it. Now look at our neighbors in Argentina, AF's promises were similar (like "picanha" meat for everyone) and what he did at the beginning of his term: he singled out the export of soy and meat. Now they have 60% inflation, which is bad for farmers.
*increased export taxes.
Up get up
get up
why is down coffee price
rich 200/ not rich ???
what marketing???🤦
Going to zero
gap 112$ late 2020 should hold
Gosh 30 % downside
i didn’t mean its going there in a straigh way
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