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US Coffee C Futures - May 24 (KCK4)

Real-time capital.com
Currency in USD
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181.45
-1.40(-0.77%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

ICE is adding bags like crazy... March 12 - 450.727, March 13 - 458.107, March 14 - 467.825, March 15 - 488.678, March 18 - 516.386
first line of defence so time for shopping
if that holds we have double d
New bags are coming to ICE together with some news about better production in Colombia.
So is the price finally going down? What's the expectation?
I like Viriato prediction about 165-175 area. Just ahead of frost season.
Added long position go up to 188
deathcroosss on 4h last time when this happen 16.6. 2023 we fell from 183 to 143
This time is different ;)
added bug short
positive sl on 184 and relax
It was just above 184 to fire SL 🤷‍♂️
nvm shorted with leverage at 188 so 4 dollars booked :))
patience bring big moove stay short
Impressive ICE bags numbers. MGom good job!
Yet ICE is making some pressure
It was kinda expected after CONAB increased its numbers no matter the weather was :). 165 - 175 is the cluster to watch, besides 170 is roughly middle of 140 - 200 range. :)
You can store in my warehouse as long as you dont mind some missing bags 🤪😅
added big short
Spreads are going up despite MGom's efforts and new bags of coffee at ICE. Do you have any theories why this is happening?
João Yoda:"DAILY COFFEE COMMENT 03/12/2024 Arabica exports in Brazil in February increased 36.5% year on year. Forecasts of drier than normal weather from late March through May raise concerns about Brazil's upcoming harvest, but strong exports from the current crop appear to be keeping the market in an unstable, sideways pattern. Brazilian body Cecafé said yesterday that its country's green Arabica coffee exports in February totaled 2.81 million bags, 36.5% above previous year's levels. This reflects the strong result for 2023/24, but also indicates that port congestion has eased, allowing exporters to compensate for previous delays. Vietnam's customs agency said its country's coffee exports in January/February totaled 398,819 tonnes (6.647 million bags), which was 16.4% higher than last year. This suggests that Vietnamese producers have become more aggressive in marketing their coffees. Stocks of certified coffee on the ICE exchange increased by 6,405 bags this Monday, reaching a new three and a half month high. MARKET VIEWS TODAY: Consumption at restaurants and retail stores should improve as consumer inflation levels decline, so in-line or lower above-expected US CPI and core CPI today could support coffee prices. Look for support in Coffee May at 182.25, with resistance at 190.00.
João Yoda:"DAILY COFFEE COMMENT 03/12/2024 Arabica exports in Brazil in February increased 36.5% year on year. Forecasts of drier than normal weather from late March through May raise concerns about Brazil's upcoming harvest, but strong exports from the current crop appear to be keeping the market in an unstable, sideways pattern. Brazilian body Cecafé said yesterday that its country's green Arabica coffee exports in February totaled 2.81 million bags, 36.5% above previous year's levels. This reflects the strong result for 2023/24, but also indicates that port congestion has eased, allowing exporters to compensate for previous delays. Vietnam's customs agency said its country's coffee exports in January/February totaled 398,819 tonnes (6.647 million bags), which was 16.4% higher than last year. This suggests that Vietnamese producers have become more aggressive in marketing their coffees. Stocks of certified coffee on the ICE exchange increased by 6,405 bags this Monday, reaching a new three and a half month high. MARKET VIEWS TODAY: Consumption at restaurants and retail stores should improve as consumer inflation levels decline, so in-line or lower above-expected US CPI and core CPI today could support coffee prices. Look for support in Coffee May at 182.25, with resistance at 190.00.
Dude. in the last 4 days the spreads have been lower at around 100cts/lb
CECAFE 3.6 M bags fev 2024, -8.45% m/m, but +49% y/y.
Quite hot today and will be even hotter in the coming days.
200 remains important level :) :) :) .
True, a specially after yesterday's close and the way it looked on weekly :).
By the way, since last cyclical low R more than tripled... as cocoa did... For KC to catch up it would imply 320 level which would be perfect chart wise :).
?
sell time ?:D or what happen
why did it shoot up like this
Red Sea scheme ! A lot of interest sides involved in escalation.
was good short :)) now maybe buy again with small tp 2 dollars
More ships full of new bags of coffee, sent by MGom, arrive at ICE.
New bags with old coffee 🤣🤣🤣
Invasion :).
I warned Dude !
Tomorrow up or down?
down only down any spike opportunity to sell
Weekly chart is the best to watch :) :) :).
...or monthly :) :) :)
or anual
Coffee import in USA Dec23 vs Dec 22 is minus 37.6% !!!!!!
Oh, already used a bit of stocks?
Spreads again deeper into backwardation...
Market sees good export as good consumption probably :) .
Reuters published article (Feb, 29th) saying, that by 10 analysts and traders :), KC will end the year around 165 :). Average view at 24 crop would be 70mb :)...
Such surveys are unlikely to work :)
is any retard here willing to buy a real world commodity from Africa at a good price?
Cecafe keeps going a full steam ahead !!! :) :) :)
ICE stocks + pending = roughly 504k. What is interesting, that for 8.64k ex-Brazil that passed grading there were 8.32k ex-Brazil that failed grading, it is roughly 50% rate...
Failed bags sold at a discount keeps demand off the certified inventory.
But the rate itself points to some quality issue, at least for now...
long term price falling maybe 150-155 as brazil is getting ready for harvest.
And it was a 17/18 screen
Bruno, in the Cerrado did you have better rain during the flowering season?
Yes we did
ICE Queue is rising but pass rate is concerning.
and no one talks about the poor quality of Colombian coffee due to the dry climate and high borer infestation...
Price is a bit elevated so some people are aware of small problems. 😉
Its time to buy?
well i am afraid that endless fall started as from 220 to 140 becasue before there was atleast some singhs of raise but now only down and down
oops
yes nice move up glad for that was perfect opportunity to exit longs and go short
Cecafe is doing great ! :)
23/24 and 22/23 have to be revised up to justify these exports numbers.
Why ? In USDA terms it all fits their numbers, assuming decreased EU stocks, etc . Good export would be bearish if at the same time the stocks will start rebuilding and in sure manner - this is what we have to watch closely... :)
...
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