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US Coffee C Futures - Dec 16 (KCZ6)

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150.23 -2.95    -1.93%
17:29:03 GMT - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Commodity
Group: Agriculture
Unit: 1 Pound

  • Prev. Close: 153.18
  • Open: 153.85
  • Day's Range: 149.90 - 154.82
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US Coffee C 150.23 -2.95 -1.93%

US Coffee C Discussions

 
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All Comments (2979)
delta wing
delta wing 13 hours ago
TA: Leading diagonal for wave 1, almost done.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 27, 2016 7:52PM GMT
Any technical analysis in what coffee are doing right now folks?
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 27, 2016 8:06AM GMT
Dont u think coffee will test 145-48?
Serge Stocco
Serge Stocco Sep 27, 2016 8:49AM GMT
For me yes, oil is sinking !!!! look at 15 min graph with ichimoku indicator, seem to follow the cloud down ...... if it break no downtrend .
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 27, 2016 9:02AM GMT
Thanks Serge. Do u have a target?..
Pike
Pike Sep 27, 2016 5:11PM GMT
Possibly at the beginning of Oct.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 27, 2016 5:32PM GMT
Ok. Whats ur analysis on coffee?
Serge Stocco
Serge Stocco Sep 28, 2016 5:51AM GMT
excuse me i see it too late , But with day result seems to go down today to 150/149.5
Show more replies (1)
Ayesiga filbert
Ayesiga filbert Sep 27, 2016 6:18AM GMT
according to my statistics am predicting a fairly high increase in the price above 155......good luck.
Kamal Thapa
Kamal Thapa Sep 27, 2016 1:46AM GMT
International Coffee Day is coming on 1 October! There are dozens of events and promotions happening at coffee spots around the world.. it will take coffee around 170.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 27, 2016 4:45AM GMT
And why is that?
Serge Stocco
Serge Stocco Sep 27, 2016 9:00AM GMT
You are right , on woman's day my wife is more expensive !!!!!!.
MH MH
MH MH Sep 26, 2016 6:53PM GMT
Sitan crude,usd and the real have indirect effect which means crude has to collapse or the USD has to pass 98 and brings the 100 threat back in to have an effect on coffee but daily moment doesn't have much effect, it has to be a substantial move.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 26, 2016 6:57PM GMT
Okay. Are we heading up for new highs now?
Get ReaL
Get ReaL Sep 26, 2016 5:57PM GMT
The cash price of coffee reached $1.72 per pound in July, signifying an inverted market. This is a reflection of supply concerns, and traders are paying a premium to receive their coffee supplies now than later. The cash market commanded about 20 cents premium over the near-by futures market.. . Year 1000 x 60kg bags % change Cash Price in September. 2005 11999 . 2006 7641 -36.32 . 2007 8361 9.42 . 2008 2781 -66.74 $1.40. 2009 6576 136.45 $1.45. 2010 2836 -56.87 $2.15. 2011 2906 2.47 $2.30. 2012 2238 -22.99 $2.75. 2013 9068 305.18 $1.79. 2014 11948 31.74 $1.32. 2015 9398 -21.33 $1.50. 2016 5198 -44.69 July $1.72
Get ReaL
Get ReaL Sep 26, 2016 5:56PM GMT
In June and July, temperatures in the Southeast and South can fall below 39 degrees Fahrenheit, a level causing frost. A frost normally kills the flowers or causes seeds on trees to drop. The effect of a frost is a reduction in production, which usually is quantified at the end of the harvest in September.. A critical period for coffee production is the flowering or harvest season.Upon the forecast of a lower production compared to last year, the price of coffee rallied from $1.20 to about $1.55 before back. If the lower production is carried into the end of this harvest, the price of coffee could rally to about $2.00, as seen in 2014.. According to the Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute, the Arabica production was up over 19% but robusta production was down over 26 % compared to last year. The end of stocks figure is also down the second year in a row.
Get ReaL
Get ReaL Sep 26, 2016 5:54PM GMT
. . Market price action. The coffee market is one of large swings to the upside when supply is limited due to weather related problems. Over the last decade, the low of coffee futures price has been between $1 and $1.20. As the chart below shows, coffee futures rallied in 2010, 2011 and 2014 above $2.00. Actually, coffee futures traded at $3.00 in 2011.. . In June and July of this year, frost occurred in the south and southeast of Brazil and impacted the coffee beans during the harvest season. When there is a frost in Brazil the full effect is not seen until the end of the harvest. Therefore as the harvest is coming to an end in Brazil, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics has forecast a total production of about 47.5 million bags of 60 kg bags of coffee, which is below the production a year ago by about 2.7 percent.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 26, 2016 1:42PM GMT
Yiiieha, down down down :)
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 26, 2016 5:35PM GMT
What the h.... is going on....
Wo Go
Wo Go Sep 26, 2016 6:14PM GMT
welcome in the wonderful world of coffee..
MH MH
MH MH Sep 25, 2016 9:34AM GMT
SItan just today i read an article on Agrimony came out on the 22nd about columbian coffee reaching 25 years high output, which makes believe that this steep decline driven by this article, and maybe it's a coincident , but if a commodities is being bullish usually it doesn't head down without a fight, and so coffee is not putting a fight but still making new highs...what attracted me about coffee trading is the volatility, you need to take advantage of it to improve your position but hold the stick from the middle because nothing is never a sure thing.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 25, 2016 5:49PM GMT
Im not sure I did understand that 100% so u mean that coffee is going down and what do u mean to take advantage of it and improve my position? Add more shorts if it goes higher?
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 25, 2016 8:21PM GMT
But if the coffee output is at the highest level in 25 years, the price should go down? The more output, lower price and the lower output, higher price right?
MH MH
MH MH Sep 25, 2016 9:38PM GMT
i am just telling what i read, it 's hard to tell if KC reacting on this article or not, already told you what would i do if i was in your shoes and i would not deviate, because coffee is bullish, don't think it will just collapse to Rabo's target till a top get formed properly, the way it falls traders get cold feet at new highs, few sells and the rest follows but they regroup at certain level and try to gain momentum again.. and you keep missing all these chances holding 100% of your shorts, you have to hold the stick from the middle.
MH MH
MH MH Sep 25, 2016 9:45PM GMT
t as said if you plan to unload 50% wait for lower highs, as long as KC making new lows every day. but the day it will make few ticks only in lower lows or the bottom hold, i would cover 50% the following day at the next support level from the lows.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 26, 2016 8:03AM GMT
Question. Does rest of the market have an affect on the coffee price?
Show more replies (2)
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 23, 2016 8:21PM GMT
Nice to check the close, im actually in profit on my second X12 leveraged position now. The big question now is how long will it go. Oh man if it just would go to 135 again then I problaly would earn my loss on the 1st position back again. But thats wishfull thinking
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 23, 2016 9:19PM GMT
How low*
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Sep 23, 2016 9:43PM GMT
Set a SL @ 157.00 ( to prevent further losses ) & if price keeps declining, lower that SL accordingly. You're now in a "trade repair stage" and the objective would be to take the least loss possible.You could still break even or come out at a gain. I do hope that you learned something on this trade. This situation can be prevented in the future by setting SL when you enter a trade.
MH MH
MH MH Sep 23, 2016 10:44AM GMT
sitan thou this is a massive shooting star that tell us we are heading down but still i would think these rally attempts it's not over yet, the fact that coffee didn't try to climb again this shooting start makes it a week top because when the final descent will take place, we will see several fail attempts trying to break through the top and that's when i will pull the trigger on a short but right now bulls keep failing so quick because so much fear as soon as a group start selling, the rest follows, in fact i am ready to join the bulls at 148 because it seems we have a range bound in place.
MH MH
MH MH Sep 23, 2016 3:37PM GMT
STIAN exit 50% of your account at 148, al least you get the chance to reload from higher grounds because as said above,the fact coffee didn't try to climb again, makes very week top, and you will get the chance to short from higher grounds and improve your situation, if i was wrong , you have the other 50% to get your money back.
Alex Ne-k
Alex Ne-k Sep 23, 2016 5:18PM GMT
holy *******stop posting here you don't give any usefull info, just " i garanteee you it has 50 % chance to go up or down"
MH MH
MH MH Sep 23, 2016 6:02PM GMT
alex do you a position in coffee ?
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 23, 2016 8:15PM GMT
Ok, thanks for the advice. Very apteciated
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 23, 2016 8:17PM GMT
When u say it seems we have range bound here u mean that u Think it will go from around 148-160 for a while?
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 23, 2016 8:22AM GMT
I havent checked coffee since yesterday morning because I was too nervous, And today I open the computer and sees coffee started falling yesterday evening!! YES, was this the top?? And it keep falling today it seems, how low can it go? help me out here traders, I have over 50% of my whole account in coffee so if I should live on in my trading career, what I do next is very important. I will keep you updated what my guy does.
Rohail Butt
Rohail Butt Sep 23, 2016 8:26AM GMT
I expect 149.5 to 150 by Monday. Then it will go back up to 155. Just my 10 cents
Sri Ed Horn
Sri Ed Horn Sep 23, 2016 8:50AM GMT
If 150 support holds, I would say; extremely bullish. Keep an eye on 150. It would have to break 127 to re-enter bear territory. Any support above 130 is still bullish in my book. I'm long from 121. . Don't overtrade. Use small positions and add to winners only, preferably on the dip.
Tran Dinh Hai
Tran Dinh Hai Sep 23, 2016 9:42AM GMT
Dear Stian. In my view, as of end 23-Sep, if KC ends lower than the previous day close, the correction trend signs are confirmed. That is, KC will truly start a short-term down trend. I mean a month trend. It often take between 10 ~ 15 SESSIONS in a month trend (sometimes up to 25 sessions) to reach its bottom or its top. In my view, this down trend looks to its bottom @ 145~147 . If I were you, I would exit there. (those level could break lower or could be the start of new up trend; it will depend on the contexts then)./. In addition, after all, I advise you should stop playing in coffee market IF YOU DO NOT KNOW WHO ARE PLAYERS IN THIS MARKET and its own principles. VERY RISKY./. GOOD LUCK./.
Tran Dinh Hai
Tran Dinh Hai Sep 23, 2016 9:46AM GMT
BTW, I am not against anyone with idea that the long-term trend of KC (year trend) is upbeat trend./.
edo bat
edo bat Sep 23, 2016 10:16AM GMT
My view is buy at 151 with target above 157 and the short with target 143
Show more replies (2)
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Sep 22, 2016 8:27PM GMT
@DW.Cautiosly bullish on all three comodities including Cfoefe at the moment. Cron - need to see a daily close above 343.25 &Waeht - a daily close of above 408.75.. Ps: During trading hours i generally don't visit forums as i found it to be a bit distracting and most evenings do need a brake from the screen.Therefore don't get to read every post..
MH MH
MH MH Sep 22, 2016 1:30PM GMT
Sitan most likely your friend trader is following Rabos's, commerze estimates, because any trader newbie or experienced can see the bullishness in coffee... rabo's estimated made me not take a chance and buy eat 148 you don't have to follow your buddy in every move because if coffee reversed at 147, you should expect it's heading for new highs, in the first run coffee moved up 20 points from 136 to 156 , therefore i will set this run at 18 points from 147 to 165 , as said can take chances trading against the trend.
MH MH
MH MH Sep 22, 2016 2:04PM GMT
it seems we are not going to make it higher, , i have to start searching for a spot to short , and sitar you should start feeling better because it seems that 162 is a line in the sand and now i am sitting my short at 160.75
ALF1
ALF1 Sep 22, 2016 2:18PM GMT
Did you come up with this trade yourself and the 160.75 level ? if you did congratulations !
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 23, 2016 8:06AM GMT
Maybe. He doubled at the top yesterday so 2% down and Im breakeven on my newest trade. Anything below that is PURE profit with X12.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Sep 23, 2016 8:12AM GMT
MH - It was to you. My guy doubled yesterday. I wrote to him a month ago about the first trade. And he replied that he had done a mistake buying shorts at 126. Then he tried to average down his trade but it just went higher. When it reached 148 the first time and then 150`s - then he believed that it would go as low as 124 before heading up again. . But it only reached below 135. So he never get out. That was a X8 leverage. Then he opened the X12 trade at 148, averaged down at 152 and again yesterday at the top. I believe he opened the X12 trade to go high risk and save the rest. So I have been sitting on the toilet ever since! What a couple of months... . Until the trade opened in June he before never hold coffee longer than a couple of days short/long. So this is very UN-typical of him. He was just caught on the wrong side. . . Hope it get better soon.
ALF1
ALF1 Sep 23, 2016 12:22PM GMT
Stian, do you believe this story ?
Show more replies (5)
RUPESH SHAH
RUPESH SHAH Sep 22, 2016 12:40PM GMT
Where is we can see live trade Tea Price or other commodities like Rubber Steel Iron ore Future ? If anybody have knowledge
RUPESH SHAH
RUPESH SHAH Sep 22, 2016 12:40PM GMT
Where is we can see live tradeTea Price or other commodities like Rubber Steel Iron ore Future ? If anybody have knowledge
bidhan patel
bidhan patel Sep 22, 2016 12:13PM GMT
What is the trade in coffee? BUY or SELL Can't decide..........
delta wing
delta wing Sep 22, 2016 11:49AM GMT
BTW What's your take on wheat and corn Tommy? A bottom could be in, but I think we need one more leg down, one more lower low.
ALF1
ALF1 Sep 22, 2016 3:55PM GMT
DW, thanks for alerting me to this market. If I may offer my view. Market getting ready for a swift move higher. I am going to buy it.
delta wing
delta wing Sep 23, 2016 6:22AM GMT
Thanks for sharing Alberto.
ALF1
ALF1 Sep 23, 2016 12:27PM GMT
Not quite the volatility squeeze breakout that Sugar had a few days back and which I saw coming, but it is becoming a bit similar. This level at 403 is good for me, but I will use 386 as risk. Buy a Mini, so I can average down if we move lower.
Mohamad Haddad
Mohamad Haddad Sep 22, 2016 11:48AM GMT
coffee should see 161.90 -168.29 area to end cycle from 134.89 low, and then pull back in 3 waves at least
Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett Sep 21, 2016 5:13PM GMT
Coffee going to 165, 180, 200, 250 or 300? I think minimum 165, but maybe 180 or 200. What do you think?
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Sep 21, 2016 8:17PM GMT
Good one WB! Finally someone is looking at the big picture.
Brian Tedjakesuma
Brian Tedjakesuma Sep 21, 2016 11:23PM GMT
100 pct agree
Serge Stocco
Serge Stocco Sep 22, 2016 8:06AM GMT
WB please buy , buy , buy , so it goes to 300 and I will be happy !!!!!
delta wing
delta wing Sep 22, 2016 11:47AM GMT
Lol! Seriously Tommy? We've been looking at the big picture for months... Where were you? ;-)
Christopher Grunditz
swam Sep 21, 2016 12:48PM GMT
buying back shorted PUTs, reducing some risk ... still impressed by price action and the fundamentals but no rally without bumps!
Nikola Srbinovski
Nikola Srbinovski Sep 21, 2016 12:36PM GMT
rain coming to coffee areas...be careful!
delta wing
delta wing Sep 21, 2016 1:27PM GMT
So... i'll make sure to bring my umbrella? What's the point Nikola?
ALF1
ALF1 Sep 21, 2016 1:33PM GMT
I see a lot of Bears put on short positions based on rain causing a market fall. Well, this is very bullish because we had rain in Brazil flooded streets etc. , and more rain in the forecast, and the market is not falling. It does not care, It is bullish on other concerns.
Wo Go
Wo Go Sep 21, 2016 1:36PM GMT
Prices are increasing due to periods of drought, so the rain is welcome..
Nikola Srbinovski
Nikola Srbinovski Sep 21, 2016 2:58PM GMT
Yes make sure..
ALF1
ALF1 Sep 21, 2016 3:39PM GMT
Nikola, it has been raining already in Brazil, early flowering etc. That is in the market, and those short hoping that rain would bring it down now have to buy higher.
Show more replies (2)
Ayesiga filbert
Ayesiga filbert Sep 21, 2016 12:18PM GMT
honestly this is so much annoying after selling my coffee last week at very low price now it has increased even much more than expected.....should we assume that statistically it will continue high because am losing out.
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Sep 21, 2016 6:46PM GMT
@Ayesiga. Can't really give you advice, but can tell you what i would do now beeing in your shoes.. Take a long position tomorrow. SL @ 153.50 if coffee trades below todays close or @155.50 if it trades above.. Then i would keep adding if the price goes up and raise SL accordingly. . GL. .
 
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