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US Coffee C Futures - Sep 15 (KCU5)

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126.98 0.00    0.00%
02/07 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Commodity
Group: Agriculture
Unit: 1 Pound

  • Prev. Close: 126.98
  • Open: 127.50
  • Day's Range: 126.43 - 128.33
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US Coffee C 126.98 0.00 0.00%
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US Coffee C Discussions

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mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 03, 2015 03:28AM GMT
if i look what happened to rice, wheat, soybean,sugar i have to guess that coffee has another major leg down remaining, before i was thinking that coffee made a floor at 128, but now have to entertain that this leg down might be the finally, and have no idea where it will end, it can't be 100 because that's what people expect, i would lean more towards 110, but definitely i don't want to miss it and will be willing to catch a falling knife. mean while if aussie rebound short it, because it has to react to china, my guess it will make new lows, more of a collapse if china is down again, you can short with confidence because the Aussie tight to the hip to china.

mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 02, 2015 06:26PM GMT
khaled honestly , i closed my position only to play it safe because as i said people sell so fast and than have to see clear skies before buying, thou if the referendum takes place in greece over the weekend, regardless of the outcome, The Euro should go up which takes the dollar down but the Euro doesn't care about the results but looks for certainty but knowing greece, this vote might not even take place, that's why is good to be in cash, but the second i see the dollar below 96, i am getting my getting my 2 contracts back, the more your trade coffee, the easier it get to play the volatility, and my advice always play it safe to enter and exit the volatility, always take 3 previous days as a measure for support and resistance.
Khaled Mansoor
Khaled Mansoor Jul 02, 2015 06:49PM GMT
Ya you are right. And when it comes to Greece on Sunday, who knows whats gonna happen? To be honest, i want Greeces uncertainty to be out of the way as fast as possible so that i can also trade oil and gold more freely. As for coffee, i did what i can but my mistake was doing 2 contracts. I should of just atarted with one and added more later.

mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 02, 2015 04:33PM GMT
the dollar chart is scaring me a bit, have to play it safe close my long @ 127.10
Khaled Mansoor
Khaled Mansoor Jul 02, 2015 04:38PM GMT
Thanks MH. Your insights have been certainly helpful. I closed my positions too. It was dissappointing as I had done my due diligence but this rally failed to start. Thats the market though. There is only so much a person can do. Im sure we can re enter at a better price next week though, if things work right

Khaled Mansoor
Khaled Mansoor Jul 02, 2015 01:01PM GMT
MH, the dollar is declining yet coffee is leaving me with a bitter taste in my mouth
mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 02, 2015 03:06PM GMT
coffee is a very hard commodity to trade, it's not just about to be in the red, we need to get down below 96, so traders can come back, over 96 is bullish for the dollar and only means it will continue to go up, traders has to get the all clear signal, after i sold my contracts, i entered a buy @ 126.65 and got filled, that's why i like coffee because of the extreme swings, you have to by gutsy to trade the swings don't panic when it's red that you afraid to buy at a low number and don't freeze when you see green, thinking it will continue to go up, that's why i gave you targets where to sell the 128.10 was the safe sell.
mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 02, 2015 03:19PM GMT
another thing the dollar already triggered a downturn on coffee, this is not a barometer . selling is always the fastest act, you sell and ask questions later, but buying is totally the opposite, you need evidence, investigations and research before getting back in. same thing I'm only holding 1 contract till i feel safe enough to add, everybody feels the same way, it's not only you, just have faith and believe dollar down coffee is up.

mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 02, 2015 03:20AM GMT
khlaed if you check the dollar daily chart, you will see the 2 green days, that explains the coffee retreat,. but still this was a bearish moves that might lead to new lows, and decided to play it safe, giving that our close on 5/22 was 126.95, the following day highs was 128.60, will use this as a guide will place a sell on 2 contracts @ 128.10 and my third contract @ 128.40 and if the dollar in the red before the report will push up by 4 ticks, i am just playing my odds because an up dollar can takes us down from 118 to 121 but if we go up, will be able to buy back my last contract @ 1.30, COFFEE is very similar to NG, trading in a range bound with division among traders for direction, the large interest always trying to push the price down, and we are bouncing right in the middle.the difference is coffee producers can hold back selling, till they get an acceptable price, where NG has to sell to generate cash.
mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 02, 2015 06:44AM GMT
change of plan will hold one through the report, after noticing we are at previous lows, unless it reaches 129.30
Khaled Mansoor
Khaled Mansoor Jul 02, 2015 07:27AM GMT
Good morning MH. Thanks for letting me know the plan. The dollar right now is in the green a couple of cents, and its up quite some since the coffee close yesterday. So it will probably open in the red. As for the unrmployment report, or any report for that matter, it unpredictable.
Khaled Mansoor
Khaled Mansoor Jul 02, 2015 08:29AM GMT
A solid green open is always a good thing. Good for you bro.

mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 01, 2015 08:31PM GMT
Khaled, as i said before coffee trades in a range bound the lows of the bound is 120 and the high is 144, so it's a matter of time, giving that all lot of commodities are reversing and giving that between may 2012 to july 2010 all commodities reversed grains and softs, if this reversal hold coffee will gets it's turn, but again it's the dollar, when the dollar fell like a rock from 96, thought we are home free but obviously not, no reason rush to sell at the open if the dollar have no gains but i will play it safe and get out before the report. coffee is very volatile, you can make it up in one day, playing the volatility in coffee, that's why i always hold 2 contracts.
mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 02, 2015 01:23AM GMT
meant to say between may 2010 to july 2010

mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 01, 2015 08:07PM GMT
her is what i am going to do, i was holding 2 contracts, sold one at 132.70, once i saw the dollar highs, ( wish i sold the second ) before the close i bought 2 contracts @ 127 and why ? because my loss on these 2 contracts will be a tick below todays lows, which is total of 5 ticks, my upside is great. therefore before coffee open if i see the dollar in the green with gains above .20% i will keep my stop loss, if the dollar in the red, i will remove the stops, hoping for the quick ride to the upside and sell these 2 contracts around 129.. if you have money to tolerate worse case which is a drop to 120. hold your contract through the report or play it safe and sell around 8:00 am U.S EASTREAN TIME, because the unemployment report @ 8:30 am eastern time and this report will set the tone for the dollar, As of now, the dollar will guide me at the open.
Khaled Mansoor
Khaled Mansoor Jul 01, 2015 08:17PM GMT
Thanks. You have a good plan. I will hold one contract through the report and sell the other at 8am.

Khaled Mansoor
Khaled Mansoor Jul 01, 2015 07:22PM GMT
MH, thanks for your explanation. I went long at 130.5 so I get nervous. Sometimes I let my emotions get the best of me. I should work on that more. I hope the dollar doesnt break 96 as it will be painful. I have to see whether I can hang on longer and be patopatpatient, or wait.
Khaled Mansoor
Khaled Mansoor Jul 01, 2015 07:24PM GMT
I mean doesnt break 97

mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 01, 2015 07:04PM GMT
and to your comments about lower lows and lower highs , coffee and all commodities specially softs has lower highs and lower lows, all softs going through reversals and the last coffee dip ended up with lower highs, last U.S report was about tight supplies in coffee stocks. coffee trades in range bound, if you don't know how to trade in the range bound, that's your own problem, doesn't give you the right to call people stupid.

mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 01, 2015 06:42PM GMT
will hicks it's easy with hindsight to make a call, only idiots make these kind of comments. the holiday is not a factor, A week ago most agriculture commodities rallied and coffee made a floor from 128 to 130. the game changer is the dollar. a bad unemployment report turns things around because the dollar will collapse. coffee is very sensitive to the dollar movement. you are just clueless price chaser. dollar up coffee down and vise versa, it's that simple.
mohamed hussien
mohamed hussien Jul 01, 2015 06:49PM GMT
there dollar couldn't break the 96 resistance line before, the fore once it does, instantly it becomes bullish, therefore commodities that are sensitive to the dollar reacts. it's not the fourth of july nor christmas.. and for khaled learn not to listen to any chump on the forum. right now coffee is not going no where till the dollar cave in below the 96 mark.
 
 
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