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US Coffee C Futures - Mar 17 (KCH7)

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145.82 +0.70    +0.48%
02/12 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Commodity
Group: Agriculture
Unit: 1 Pound

  • Prev. Close: 145.12
  • Open: 144.80
  • Day's Range: 144.20 - 148.70
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US Coffee C 145.82 +0.70 +0.48%

US Coffee C Discussions

 
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All Comments (3118)
MH MH
MH MH 2 hours ago
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thou we seen signs today that coffee can go for a short term rally, after we had an outside day with higher highs..i think this was triggered by the USDBRZ going back down below 3.50.. which was the reason that coffee dipped below 145 after the USDBRZ rallied above 3.50 in favor of the dollar, but the threat remains because we ended up with an indecision day in the USDBRZ and closed at 3.47..on monday a move and a close above 3.50 will be very bearish for coffee because it means the USDBRZ ready to move up to 4.00 and a close below 3.40 will allow coffee to take off .
MH MH
MH MH 14 hours ago
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So far i like what i see, i will keep holding my position, thou i expect we will go and retest the lows tomorrow, if we didn't go down , i will exit my position because i would not be comfortable till the lows get tested..the fact we sold the rally is a good sign in my opinion.
Sri Ed Horn
Sri Ed Horn 23 hours ago
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I'm long from 156 and 152; this is getting rather painfull, but I don't intend to fold above 125. Might hedge if it falls below 140. But to hold the bullish bias on the monthly I'd like to see the price bounce from 145 back to 150 in the next 2 sessions.
Coach Persistent
Coach Persistent 22 hours ago
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Keep it to 140 i am confident that it will reverse from here
Coach Persistent
Coach Persistent 22 hours ago
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140 i believe will be the bottom for 2017!
Shiva Shiva
Shankar Dec 02, 2016 8:19AM GMT
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please do give correct inputs
MH MH
MH MH 23 hours ago
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and what's that correct input that you are talking about,i am just sharing my view. can be wrong, of course it can...i would like to hear your view about why gold went down with the dollar ? let me hear your correct input.
MH MH
MH MH Dec 02, 2016 7:54AM GMT
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right now their extreme volatility , yesterday the dollar went down , and gold fell as well..gold usually tell the story of the dollar..therefore if gold fell while the dollar had a red day..it means that gold believes that the dollar will continue to go up, and maybe that why softs and grains are falling
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Dec 01, 2016 8:40PM GMT
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Havent been looking so much at coffee for the last couple of weeks because that I went out of my shorts. If i just had sticked to the plan. The guy I had been following for the last 6 months are making money now..
MH MH
MH MH Dec 02, 2016 6:57AM GMT
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how can you say that , according to you this guy loaded the boat at 151 than we went to 176, do you really believe, he didn't fold or had a stop loss between 151 to 176...no trader will ever do that most likely he lost a boat load of money and he stop loss had to be around 162
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud 22 hours ago
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MH, no, because I can see his account. I can see when i sells and buys. And he is still holding all of his shorts.... HE dosent use stop loss. He average up and down instead.
MH MH
MH MH Dec 01, 2016 5:54PM GMT
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fair trade i just share what i notice, Rabobank first one to predict the 135 target in the middle of super bullish rally, when you read his recent comment, you get the sense that he has no clue what coffee will next..that's why i try to rely on every tool available like the MACD, 3 days ago, i was determined to buy 148, till i saw the sharp descent on the MACD...the other factor that other commodities are acting the same way, which makes believe that hedge funds are fearing the dollar.
MH MH
MH MH Dec 01, 2016 6:01PM GMT
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the weekly chart of the MACD
MH MH
MH MH Dec 01, 2016 6:22PM GMT
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after 4 weeks of heading down, this might be an over shoot from previous lows , followed by a short rally than continue to head down , i might roll the dice on such a quick popper the next few days
Pavel Předota
Pavel Předota Dec 02, 2016 5:21AM GMT
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@MH MH: Thank you very muh for your posts. It helps to learn a lot :-)
MH MH
MH MH Dec 01, 2016 4:35PM GMT
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if i didn't view the MACD and realize that such a wicked descent happens very rare and it can result to a visit to 134, i would 100% buying 147 . and my point of the MACD weekly cross, in case if you don't understand, since the weekly MACD reversed in mid 2015 from the long massive descent in 2014, it did make such a deep descent till now, and such a deep descent is similar to the one that begun the massive down trend.. that doesn't mean i am saying we are reversing for good, but this descent is not a normal descent and better keep your head down.
MH MH
MH MH Dec 01, 2016 4:36PM GMT
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till solid support and the only first solid support is 134
MH MH
MH MH Dec 01, 2016 4:50PM GMT
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of course i will be willing to buy before that if i get 2 days of higher highs and lower highs but a shoot from the hip, has to be at solid support.
Fair Trade
Fair Trade Dec 01, 2016 5:08PM GMT
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I am starting to buy from here and I will average price if it will be necessary. Based on fundamentals I see in coming months/years at least 50% profit from existing levels. In some parts production dropped 20% this year. Demand is in up trend. Sorry but fundamentals are very bullish in long term
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Dec 01, 2016 3:06PM GMT
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Tommy! I hope you will pm me when it is time. Still sitting on my hands here and dont know if you get any e m a i l from me. Have a Nice day!
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Dec 01, 2016 3:11PM GMT
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Sorry! Just chekked the inbox. I will wait!
Max Mars
Max Mars Dec 01, 2016 3:19PM GMT
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100$ good price to accumulate coffee
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Dec 01, 2016 3:02PM GMT
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Tommy! Hope you will pm me when its time to enter. Not sure if you get every mail. Still sitting on my hans here with what I have left. Have a Nice day.
Abhishek m r
Abhishek m r Dec 01, 2016 12:54PM GMT
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Buy $KC_F @ 148 - 150 for target 158 - 165 above 151.5, Stops @ 146, Reversal target capped @ 136 below 146, Now @ 150.68
MH MH
MH MH Dec 01, 2016 6:41AM GMT
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if you check the MACD weekly chart , you find out, that the last time we had sharp weekly cross descent was in november 2014., other coffee news, .jack scoville is blaming yesterday slide on the latest surplus report released by Marex... but this is old news, the coffee rally was about the deficit in Robusta,..Rabo's already predicted the surplus and we still rallied..i believe it's more of plunge in the real and the dollar crossing 100 , and if you view the MACD weekly chart, you get the sense, that we are not done heading down.
MH MH
MH MH Dec 01, 2016 4:22AM GMT
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yesterday crude jumped 9% but coffee did not even blink, and still went down, which makes me believe this all currency dollar and Brazilian real, therefore i would not jump even 3 points away from october lows. because it seems traders are fearing the dollar
MH MH
MH MH Nov 30, 2016 4:38AM GMT
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Now i placed my first buy at 149.90, if i move it down, i would not go below 148 because i believe if we continue to move down, we would no make it to october lows at 145.50 , i would expect buyers will get in 3 or 4 point from previous lows, you will never get the absolute lows, i just pick a spot that i would be content with my position. and 4 points above previous lows, it's a bad spot to target.
Max Mars
Max Mars Nov 30, 2016 1:34PM GMT
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Good point of view !
MH MH
MH MH Nov 30, 2016 1:59PM GMT
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meant to say it's a good spot to target.
MH MH
MH MH Nov 29, 2016 4:34PM GMT
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previous patterns points that this is the last leg down ( today's lows )..
MH MH
MH MH Nov 29, 2016 4:38PM GMT
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but i will wait till crude gets to $43.00 because now crude and the dollar influencing coffee
bb bb
BillyBoy Nov 30, 2016 4:24PM GMT
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opec had different point of view..
Max Mars
Max Mars Nov 29, 2016 2:07PM GMT
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Massive sell-off back in action, longers beware !
Fair Trade
Fair Trade Nov 29, 2016 9:46PM GMT
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I am calm, all Quiet on the Western Front
Max Mars
Max Mars Nov 30, 2016 1:08PM GMT
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Cool !
delta wing
delta wing Nov 29, 2016 9:44AM GMT
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So we went to 170+ for wave 1, just like some good folks here predicted and from there we're correcting as a wave 2. I'm thinking that Wave A has just finished and Wave B of 2 is now in progress with a Wave C still to come reaching 151- 147. Could be that wave 2 is already finished, but I highly doubt it. The dept of the retracement is pretty good, but timewise we're still way too short comparing to wave 1. It could be a short, sharp wave 2, but again I doubt it, more likely the end of wave A. jm2c
delta wing
delta wing Nov 29, 2016 2:31PM GMT
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I can only speak for myself, but I predicted 170+ for wave 1 in January 2016, because that area was a heavy support zone that was breached to the downside and acted as resistance zone afterwards, which makes it a magnet. Next move up will be going to 200+ (204 - 215 if you ask me). Forming a triangle B wave of major 2, with a C still to come targeting 100-86 area OR it just keeps on going as a massive wave 3 of generational 3 reaching 320+. Only time and the charts will tell.
delta wing
delta wing Nov 29, 2016 2:38PM GMT
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And an Elliott Wave count is always appropriate. Sometimes it's very hard to tell and the count is murky, but putting in the effort to make a decent wave count is never a waste of time and effort imo.
Alex How
Alex How Nov 29, 2016 6:17PM GMT
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In this case the wave 2 would invalidate the bowl formation because the parabola's curvature is now broken. . . My point about wave count is that if you look historically, curve fitting for well-defined bowls can usually be done to a very high degree of accuracy with the parabola acting as support.. . But if Wave 2 retraces to the Fib(50%) or Fib(61.8%) then the whole parabola is negated. . It's also way too early for a handle imo. . . I think the fundamentals and uptrend channel top easily support the 220+ target, but am a bit disturbed at the moment. . . Would you like to talk further? I have been watching coffee very carefully since a year ago. Let me know, it'd be great having another person to bounce off of. . . I'm a big Elliot Wave fan too.
MH MH
MH MH Nov 28, 2016 5:27AM GMT
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now the dollar is confirming it's heading down, it's safe to enter long coffee.
MH MH
MH MH Nov 29, 2016 10:41AM GMT
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as long as the dollar is fighting heading down coffee will be risky, i believe the dollar will make another attempt to cross 102 but will fail and this should be the green light to buy coffee, i went long but exited before monday because the dollar recovered huge loss. that's i think it can take another swing at 102, now i would not be surprise if coffee go below 154,
MH MH
MH MH Nov 25, 2016 4:31PM GMT
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only glad i exited my 2 contracts at the open breaking even, otherwise I'll be singing the blues on 2 contracts, where the second was bought by accident...
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Nov 25, 2016 8:47PM GMT
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Seriously? If 2 points underwater with only 2 contracts make you "sing the blues" you should'nt even trade coffee futures overnight, but derrivatives instead.
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Nov 26, 2016 5:26PM GMT
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quite an intelligent response!
Max Mars
Max Mars Nov 25, 2016 2:09PM GMT
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Panic selling in action could land between 120/80 $
Alberto Ferracuti
Coffeeman Nov 25, 2016 3:27PM GMT
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Good luck
MH MH
MH MH Nov 24, 2016 4:29AM GMT
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when you read Rabo views on coffee, you get the sense, they have no idea, where coffee is heading, which understandable between the bullishness of coffee and the dollar, because the dollar chart is super bullish right now.. On TA and patterns this should be the lows for coffee March contracts but the dollar will make me loose sleep.
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Nov 23, 2016 8:10PM GMT
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Just went long on coffee . You might get a better entry tomorrow so if you want to go long, it's time to do so.. As far as strategy is concerned, this trade is designed with two entries.1/2 now and the other 1/2 only if price goes up (will update when). SL is set at 150, so make sure you can handle that amount off loss (SL @155 could be fine but i do prefer the former SL). If not trade 1/3 now and 2/3 later. This trade has a time frame of up to 4 weeks, if price goes higher than expected than the trade might last longer..
Coach Persistent
Coach Persistent Nov 24, 2016 2:39AM GMT
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Sounds good , GL, i will wait for 154-155 to come entering long
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Nov 24, 2016 9:00AM GMT
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Ok, Tommy. I have sent some mails to you, but you havent replyed for a while. But if you post here its fine..
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Nov 24, 2016 7:28PM GMT
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Will check the mail folders and reply soon.
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Nov 24, 2016 7:32PM GMT
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Hi Stian,have not seen any in the mail box but will check the spam folder incase they went there.Be in touch soon!
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Nov 24, 2016 7:35PM GMT
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PS. Would not recomend this trade yet to you because it has a medium risk level and would like to find you a low risk entry.
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Max Mars
Max Mars Nov 23, 2016 2:09PM GMT
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Massive sell-off in action long closed this morning
Marcin Andraka
Martinezzz Nov 21, 2016 6:32PM GMT
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Tomorrow we hit 167.50 and go down:)
Max Mars
Max Mars Nov 21, 2016 6:42PM GMT
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Hope it will so I can close that crazy long opened and reverse short
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Nov 21, 2016 6:15PM GMT
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Looks like a reversal to me.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Nov 21, 2016 6:30PM GMT
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Annnnnd there ya go. Tomorrow is entry.
 
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