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US Coffee C Futures - Dec 16 (KCZ6)

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156.27 +0.15    +0.10%
21/10 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Commodity
Group: Agriculture
Unit: 1 Pound

  • Prev. Close: 156.27
  • Open: 155.43
  • Day's Range: 155.12 - 157.43
US Coffee C 156.27 +0.15 +0.10%

US Coffee C Discussions

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All Comments (3014)
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Oct 20, 2016 10:56AM GMT
I'm not gonna make any calls...that's what I do when I place my trades...but I'll say this, Coffee very simply follows it's market day Form. Counting the market days on each minor swing, only reversing the count when a reaction of 2 period or more occur. The greater time periods in force are 33 Market Days / 49 Calendar Days UP - 20 Market Days / 28 Calendar Days DOWN - 28 Market Days / 41 Calendar Days UP - 11 Market Days / 15 Calendar Days DOWN....now having gone UP 7 Market Days / 11 Calendar Days....a hard line rule is that a trending market must move in the TRENDING DIRECTION a greater period of Time AND PRICE for that trend to still be in force.....do the math.
HankRearden Oct 20, 2016 11:45AM GMT
Something really interesting on the Volume front is that on the daily time frame this last bottom in comparison to the previous primary bottoms is that the volume on the bottoming bars for the first time were less than those of the topping bars...pattern has been the bottom bars showing a significant higher level of volume in comparison to the topping bars....anyone else in here track the volume on Coffee? Historically does this pattern ring any bells? I haven't had a chance to really go through the historical data as of yet...it's somewhat common across other markets I research though, the volume begins to cross over as a direction weakens.
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Oct 20, 2016 7:45PM GMT
Brian Tedjakesuma
Brian Tedjakesuma Oct 20, 2016 11:32PM GMT
I am sorry Hank, can u explain in simply word, i am newbei. thanks
delta wing
delta wing Oct 20, 2016 6:14AM GMT
@Stian: Tommy is giving you good advice on the whole line. Have you picked up a book or openend a site to learn something about trading, like I suggested months ago? Listen to Hank and Tommy, inform yourself. Or learn to live with the fact that others make faults and it's costing you money big time.. . Educational material:. - The free chartschool at stockcharts. A recommendation for all who dips his toes in trading!. - The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter. - Japanese candlestick charting techniques by steve nison
delta wing
delta wing Oct 20, 2016 6:13AM GMT
I'm thinking that this leading diagonal in coffee as a wave 1 has finished. http://invst.ly/2jpgc. I expect that a pullback to 146 is in order. If 146 breaks wave 2 could go to 139 - 128 area to end wave 2.. Notice how I keep calling this wave 2, we're in a bullmarket ladies and gentlemen with a massive wave 3 up to come which should easily reach 200+, but for now let wave 2 run it's course and buy the freekin' dips after a 3 wave pullback. You buy after wave A down... good!, cause wave A = Wave C a lot in a bullmarket dip. You add at the end of Wave C. Never short a bullmarket even if you know it's going to correct, if your a daytrader yes, if you're a MT trader or investor NO!.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 20, 2016 6:35AM GMT
Thank you Delta Wing. That was just the answer that I was looking for.
anand srinivasan
anand srinivasan Oct 20, 2016 5:14AM GMT
hi guys.... I am new to this forum... just started trading coffee as was used to silver and euro earlier... must say really volatile asset class. I am short at 151 and just waiting. any advise on what can expected
MH MH Oct 20, 2016 3:49AM GMT
tommy in exile your comment to Sitan was uncalled for, the man made a call like any one here, if he was right , you should apply the schooling comment to yourself...
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Oct 20, 2016 7:39PM GMT
Your quite funny! Love your humor!
MH MH Oct 21, 2016 5:14AM GMT
i am not trying to be funny nor sarcastic.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 19, 2016 4:41AM GMT
Hey Guys. Short here to 146? I need profit!
bidhan patel
bidhan patel Oct 19, 2016 11:34AM GMT
Everyone need profit my friend ....... That's a game plane ...... It should go down after 2 week upside.
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Oct 19, 2016 5:25PM GMT
Apparently you are attending the school of hard knocks in the subject of trading Stian. Expensive indeed. Hope you come out stronger!
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 19, 2016 5:36PM GMT
Yup. Just trying to make something out of my money for the little boy in my profile pic. But apparently no one have any advices for a novice. Only banter
HankRearden Oct 19, 2016 5:56PM GMT
I will say this once, and it's against my better judgement to even address this but you are asking for help so I suppose I will offer these words once. Stop following another person, no success can be had in markets by doing such unless this person completely controls your account and is trading it themselves and has a proven trading strategy/plan that has accurate backtesting and live market confirmation. Secondly, if you have to ask if you should be buying or selling you shouldn't be doing either. You should be learning why you should be buying or selling. Do you think you could operate on someone and perform, say open heart surgery? The same goes for trading. Markets are in no way something someone should take lightly and enter into unless you have solid rules and a trading plan/strategy to trade based off of. This can take years of study and backtesting...you reap what you sow Stian. Either put the work in before the trade or you will lose.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 19, 2016 6:39PM GMT
Show more replies (2)
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Oct 19, 2016 1:56AM GMT
Wouldn't be surprised to see some red today.
Aioanei Bogdan
Aioanei Bogdan Oct 18, 2016 4:36PM GMT
It's going to test again 146-149 ?
bidhan patel
bidhan patel Oct 18, 2016 4:43PM GMT
Looks like it, It's definitely overbought
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 18, 2016 5:31PM GMT
How much more do u think it will go up? Turnaround here?
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Oct 18, 2016 7:34PM GMT
Hold on to your hat's boy's!
bidhan patel
bidhan patel Oct 18, 2016 2:54PM GMT
. . 'Markets have over-reacted'. . However, at Rabobank, senior commodities analyst Carlos Mera took a more cautious line over production setbacks saying that while drought conditions are a concern, it is too early yet to inject too much risk premium into prices.. . "It remains to be seen if the dry conditions in Brazil will cause the flowers to drop to the ground," he said, adding that the market have "overreacted".
MH MH Oct 17, 2016 5:38PM GMT
STIAN stop thinking that your friend is a coffee expert, stop following him, you have to wait at least 14 points to take an opposite position and these levels 18 points is more suitable..coffee turned bullish if you roll the dice , you roll the dice going up and not down ..you play it safe in shorting and wait a full 18 points from the lows before you short which makes a short target 160 to 164
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 18, 2016 10:39AM GMT
I have added to my short here at 158 so now I am 48% in - on this trade. Will not add any more to it now. He is in 55% in -.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 18, 2016 10:40AM GMT
By that I mean I have added loss on 48% on it. Dont you think it will go down soon?
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 18, 2016 10:43AM GMT
So if it goes to 160 I should add some more, I entered way too soon at 152.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 18, 2016 11:04AM GMT
What I dont understand is, he bought at the low in 145 and sold at 150. (Way too early) so he entered at the bottom but was convinced that it would turn at 151 because he went all in on it. I can see his account in % and he has 0 in Cash.
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Oct 14, 2016 7:12PM GMT
Shorting a Bull-run is dangeros! Ok, it's possible to short and earn but it's more like picking up pennies infront a train. Make the trend your friend.
HankRearden Oct 15, 2016 12:15PM GMT
Sure is. Enjoyed your comments. Grains are set to have a spectacular end of year move. Glad to see someone else aware. Go corn, go corn, hahaha....
tommy in exile
tommy in exile Oct 17, 2016 7:25AM GMT
edo bat
edo bat Oct 14, 2016 3:27PM GMT
My view is that coffee must now close a gap down to 149.50-150.00, and then we'll see...
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 14, 2016 6:05PM GMT
Hope so..
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Oct 14, 2016 11:26AM GMT
Hello, I have a very simple/quick question. I have not traded Coffee before, I trade in other markets. However I would like to get into some contracts and I'm curious as to the liquidity of this commodity in comparison to other softs or grains. I trade with entry orders entered as limit orders and stops in place as market order stops. I'm curious what is your worst fill on Coffee? What is the range you will see on a fill? Lowest volume market I trade is Sugar and the fills are perfect...however Coffee's volume is relatively similar to Cotton so it's somewhat bothersome....I don't mind missing a fill by a few ticks, but I do use a precise entry/exit strategy and am not in the business of letting a losing trade keep running. So please, if you could share with me your experience of being filled on your entries and exits, getting stopped out as well as taking profit on positions. Thank you.
MH MH Oct 14, 2016 2:36PM GMT
volatility is very high in coffee , therefore using stop loss in not a good idea, the way i paly coffee either i go long from low grounds with no stop loss or in short from high grounds, in this case around 158/160 with no SL, and don't open fresh trades in the middle, if i miss a reverse , so be it, hopefully I'll get the next one. Rabo has a target on coffee in the last quarter at 138 and others has a lower target , in this rally i posted here that 145.75 is a perfect target to get in, thou i exited too early at 152.200, to play it safe, in addition Rabo;s target influence me in a way.
HankRearden Oct 14, 2016 2:46PM GMT
Thank you MH, I very much understand the volatility aspect as well as other matters. However I'm not asking necessarily for trading strategy or advice in that area, no disrespect intended. I fully have a trading plan in place for all my trades and only take trades when a signal is given. What I am truly interested in is simply the accuracy of the fills. Personally I will never trade without a stop loss, but that's an entirely different matter unto itself. I really want to know what is to expected on your fills...are they pretty accurate or what? I suppose because you do not use stop losses you really have no concern for this. Thank you for the thoughts though and the time taken to respond.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 14, 2016 3:29PM GMT
I HATE coffee... Why does my guy go all in at 151,50? What does he see? He gained 600 % on coffee trading from January- May. And after that he just trade against the trend all the time. He went bull last week for a couple of days and took profit way too early and went short again. Short all the time. What does he SEE!
HankRearden Oct 14, 2016 3:38PM GMT
I'm not really sure what your guy sees. Maybe ask why he entered the trade?
sunan naeem
sunan naeem Oct 14, 2016 3:51PM GMT
It was easy money shorting coffee up until a few months ago. Dynamics of the market have changed dramatically. It is good to trade against the trend at times but the trend can bury traders without any problem
Show more replies (4)
Michael Gray
Michael Gray Oct 14, 2016 9:39AM GMT
Coffee is at risk of shortage with years to come.. it is on the way again towards 200... you can see big pull ups from low driven by relation with USD etc. Despite all Coffee keeps coming back to high points which suggests at some point a big bull push to levels we didn't see for long time.
koenraad de neef
koenraad de neef Oct 14, 2016 10:01AM GMT
lets hope so
Meli Obi
Meli Obi Oct 14, 2016 10:24AM GMT
I see price coffee back to $250 again
Michael Gray
Michael Gray Oct 14, 2016 11:01AM GMT
I see 200 quite easily but over a month or so. October already showed once a big push
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 14, 2016 1:12PM GMT
Will never happen in ONE month. No climbings without corrections.
Capper DK
Capper DK Oct 14, 2016 1:51PM GMT
170 here we come:)
MH MH Oct 13, 2016 6:35AM GMT
sitar had my exit at 152 .250 and why ? if you look at the 1 hour chart of tuesday , you find that the bottom of support was 152.300 , so usually if it heads down, it will visit at least the bottom of support before heading down ...but when it head went down the bottom held and reversed again, so now i would say it favors heading up, , i am content with the profits i have and will be glad if continued heading up which i believe will do, in fact i will try to open my longs again at 151.300 if doesn't make it there i will pass and wait to short at 160.00, if you shorted , at this levels , that's way too early, if i wanted to exit because i wasn't sure about direction but the bottom held.
MH MH Oct 13, 2016 6:54AM GMT
in fact it's not worth the risk , thou i think the dollar become a risk factor once it cross 98 and don't think it will cross but again it's not worth the risk but i won't short unless we have another day we can't go higher in coffee or till we get to 158 or 160.
adi hashi
adi hashi Oct 13, 2016 8:19AM GMT
If markets are deep red today it will take coffee down
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 12, 2016 7:19PM GMT
MH - did u close your longs and what are ur opinion today?
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 12, 2016 7:28PM GMT
Dollar crossed 98 today too
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 12, 2016 7:47PM GMT
Its positive that Dollar broke 96-97,5 so now it is heading for 105-108. Will this put pressure on the coffee price?
delta wing
delta wing Oct 12, 2016 6:29AM GMT
My leading diagonal count on coffee at this point in time.. . http://invst.ly/2jpgc
MH MH Oct 11, 2016 5:28PM GMT
sitan honestly i no longer like this chart heading up , i will exit at tomorrow's open, .
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 11, 2016 5:59PM GMT
Sorry, I didnt understand. Are u long or short?
MH MH Oct 12, 2016 6:04AM GMT
i am long but will exit this position at the open , don't trust that this rally will keep going on , it sold too long for a rally on first day.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 12, 2016 6:36AM GMT
Thanks. I agree
adi hashi
adi hashi Oct 12, 2016 12:39PM GMT
I shorted but not sure now
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 12, 2016 1:43PM GMT
I added more to my short today.
bidhan patel
bidhan patel Oct 11, 2016 12:49PM GMT
Any thought on coffee anyone.......
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 11, 2016 1:35PM GMT
Yes, down and then up.
Oktay KARADENİZ Oct 11, 2016 3:37PM GMT
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 11, 2016 5:24PM GMT
Nice drop!
adi hashi
adi hashi Oct 10, 2016 3:41PM GMT
156 by close
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 10, 2016 4:11PM GMT
adi hashi
adi hashi Oct 10, 2016 4:35PM GMT
Closed long good day
Wo Go
Wo Go Oct 10, 2016 3:00PM GMT
i'm going short at 151.48, let's see what will happen.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 10, 2016 3:07PM GMT
Good luck
adi hashi
adi hashi Oct 10, 2016 3:39PM GMT
Did it hit your stop loss yet
Wo Go
Wo Go Oct 10, 2016 4:47PM GMT
Adi, yes..almost
adi hashi
adi hashi Oct 10, 2016 6:05PM GMT
Coffee will be going up now dangerous to short it only for intraday
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 10, 2016 6:10PM GMT
Show more replies (10)
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 10, 2016 1:37PM GMT
Opened a short now at 150.68
adi hashi
adi hashi Oct 10, 2016 1:39PM GMT
It is going higher it seems
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 10, 2016 3:39PM GMT
Will add more tommorow, market here in Danmark are closed now so I cant trade coffee
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 10, 2016 1:21PM GMT
Closed my longs with 20% profit.
Wo Go
Wo Go Oct 10, 2016 2:34PM GMT
Nice profit
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 07, 2016 9:57AM GMT
Hi guys. I have closed my short right now. And I have bought BULL here at this level.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 07, 2016 10:08AM GMT
It was the x12 leveraged position that I took profit in and went long. I still have the x8 leveraged position from the mid 120's
Semper Augustus
Semper Augustus Oct 07, 2016 1:31PM GMT
Nice job Stian. I hope the best for you.
Stian Nørsterud
Stian Nørsterud Oct 07, 2016 4:23PM GMT
Sunny sunny
Sunny sunny Oct 07, 2016 6:15AM GMT
Coffee may fall further due to strength in dollar.
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