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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 24 (KCc3)

ICE
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
221.55
-4.75(-2.10%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Interesting facts: as of April 2024 only 2010 had warmer sea surface temp in the Atlantic main development region vs 2024 and only a few years are in the same context as 2024 and those years are: 2023, 2010, 2005, 1969 and 1958. Those years were marked by strong hurricane activity and besides ... years 1958, 1969, 2005, 2010 correlate with drought in NEB. MG/coffee areas are not exactly the same as all NEB but still :) ...
All true, but remember Oscar mentioned higher borrer infestation and lower quality beans for some percentage ? Also all true and correlates 100% with strong El Nino and its effect on Colombian production, however it got no big coverage... The catalyst that would push KC sky high should be of a real strength :) :) :) ! If my fantasies :) will come true, the market will have to absorb in May/June a bit :) lower than expected global production and not that bright projection for 2025. Then, if MG weather will really disappoint, we may see a firework. A real drought would be a total mess: besides it will hit again the trees, that just almost recovered, it may provoke higher infestation on later basis, etc - few years lasting effect or so... Some correlations point to the impact within 24 - 26 but nobody knows until it happened and extent matters :). Currently, KC seems :) to be able to defend 200, assuming the frost season is behind the corner...
At the moment most analysts are expecting record crop from Brazil. At the same time we had/have very high temps in Asia and Africa. Nobody knows how exactly coffee areas have been hit if at all :), but most simple assumption would be that they somehow also suffered some damage. Nothing devastating but combined with Islands, CA, Mexico, Colombia :), etc - may be a real figure, all together may provide reduction of 5mb, who knows :) ? 5mb + 2.5mb consumption growth = 7.5mb - it's a number that matters ! Nothing points to a globally falling consumption... Not agitating to buy or sell !!!
Bloomberg is taking hoarding and unprecedented level of defaults on the contracts in Vietnam... Correlates with what Alex Gruber said at the podcast of Ryan Delany... Alex didn't call current crop in Vietnam a disaster :)... While hoarding is normal and always takes place when price goes vertical, I was always wondering how do they define if it is a massive hoarding, etc or not ? :) Go farm to farm and inspect ??? :)
What can we expect on Monday in that case?
Is road to 300 possible? What do you think?
JG posted this morning from Dak Lak: You either have some water left in your well or you do not. Some farmers have irrigated 7X (times ? :)) already but don't have water for an 8th round. If it doesn't rain soon, the crop will pass the point of no return. All farmers expect a further decline in 2024/25. And a happy farmer, irrigating the trees at the pic.
As MGom said, rains are expected shortly in Vietnam and all can change to some extent. But it worth of attention, that there are rains and rains as 10mm not equal 50mm, etc. May seems to be super important month as in May: 1) Conab - will it admit some potential quality loss, etc or not for A ?; 2) USDA will publish Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Guatemala, etc reports; 3) By some w-guys now, La Nina will not come before September, hot water :), etc - El Nino effect may (!) last till August in some areas...
Currently: high temps in Vietnam, Thailand, Manila, India, Laos, etc.
Climate anomalies like now haven't been seen for over 300 years (open sources). GSM progresses the way it should - next stage should be cooling (if to believe history :)). Main question is how smooth the transition will start ? :) :) :)
Hi guys, what can we expect in the next week? Do you have any ideas?
Rains and Flowers are arriving in Vietnam in next days
What does it mean - is it bullish news?
Yes, there will be plenty of beautiful flowers to sell!
lol
Stay calm , hold your position at least for a week
Do you know why it goes down so much? I'm thinking about closing the position with a loss :(
Don't drink&drive
Stay cam - and hold your position.
Yes stay calm & hold your post at least foe a week
Drought monitor shows that soil in Brazil is already more dry than normal. Weather forecast is without any rain for next 45 days. Both Arabica and Robusta regions. Some say this is good for harvest, maybe...
Brazil is exporting beans pulled from the deepest warehouses.
Another good example of growing consumption in Asia: Cambodia, in 2014 consumed about 100kb, in 2022 - about 160kb (open sources). Thus, it's not just Vietnam, it's a trend. Laos growth rate is about 2percent on average annual basis, etc... More income, more western culture :), more population - more consumption... Of course, the rate is lower when it comes to Korea and Japan...
To cover 44mb of export and 23mb of domestic, Brazil needs 67mb. USDA saw production of roughly 66mb for 23/24 + ending stocks of roughly 4mb for 22/23 --> 70mb. All inline with current development :).
cofffee wants ath and destroy leverage sellers
Nah, really doesn’t. Arabica is trash and will drag overall complex down. Top is in
May R crossed 4500.
Thailand was on the news about record temps. Ryan Delany posted that its sugar production is seen now roughly 20% below previous season production. Sugar is not at all coffee, but the fact confirms that high temps were real, etc. Could coffee be affected also ? Who knows ? :) - is honest answer but probability/risk wise it would be more correct to suppose that yes :) vs no ...
This is from Jim Roemer, Best Weather Spider, on April 22: Vietnam faces worst coffee drought in decades... Jim is in this business for over 30 years, specializes in weather/commodities researches, weather guy by definition... So, Jim witnessed weather issues in Vietnam not just once and Jim is never perma-something: he is based strictly on what he's seeing ahead teleconnections/history wise, etc. His comment kinda also explains why JG left to inspect Vietnam...
Hi Viriato , your spot on with your observations! I'm from India. The primary coffee growing regions Chikmagalur, Coorg and Wayanad were reeling under drought like conditions with record daytime temperatures !! Coffee here even though shade grown took a bit of a beating . In fact we just received " blossom showers" now which was due FEB- MARCH.
hiii ❤️
i did not understand 213/210? What that means
Chart
213/210?
im waiting for my levels, still way overshoted
time to buy some coffee
Już niżej nie spadnie?
220.oo game over
The game is over?
Armageddon got subdued, at least for now :).
Thank you very much Rodrigo for your comments ! I think that Judy Ganes decided to go there to inspect because the internal rumors are that damage may be bigger and it may affect next season and extent can be meaningful, etc. Otherwise why going ? Initially, next season supposed to be a good one... But if, somehow, it was affected, (flowering, etc) it would support R and her clients would better know it now :) :) :) !
this is all speculation. its been said that brazil and other regions will have more A production then some of these other nations showing deficits.
But how much?
what is going on?
Armagedon
If it follows cocoa patterns u can expect tremendous gains…check the weather if it was crops friendly in the producing countries like brazil so u will have better picture.. good luck
Do we expect coffee prices to hike in the coming weeks? if so, by how much?
Ahhh, to have a crystal ball :-)
It seems like cocoa processing in North America went up in a first quarter: plants processed 3.6% more vs first quarter of previous year (open sources info :)). Main point is not it grew up but it didn't fall as many expected due to price... Strong El Nino was usually damaging for Vietnam coffee crop and it seems, it happened again. But the one has to ask himself a simple question: if just some :) damaging weather, not yet (if at all) officially fully confirmed, is able to produce the move roughly equal to a move, justified by real multiple, fully confirmed frost in Brazil, is it really just weather in Vietnam or it may be something more to it ? Because if there is :), current move has a chance to continue (including pull backs), at first, toward 290 area and then who knows ... :) As GCA doesn't publish and current move up happened on superb Brazilian export, CONAB (till previous report) hasn't found anything suspicious and most important USDA reports, related to R are coming out in May as next CONAB report and ECF stocks report also coming in May (Brazil in June), weather continues to impress here and there, KC may still have about 1.5 months to entertain the market... :). I don't know if JD completed any field trips recently, but as she has very very long and extensive experience, unlikely she would mention the possibility of lighter yields for current Brazilian crop without any data in her hands... :) Also, Stoch on weekly and monthly charts didn't produce sell signal yet. All may change quickly of course, as KC has life its own :)... NOT an agitation to do anything !!! :)
Superb export ex-Brazil post harvest 2023 may tell whatever :), but first of all, it tells that Brazil has coffee to export and consumption is doing just fine, otherwise export wouldn't be that great. Decreased export can be also explained by many reasons, but besides conspiracy and greedy producers :), it may mean that production/stocks are not that high and so, producers may allow themselves to be thrifty for some time... :) :) :)
For instance, I saw some comments from Indian producers (Karnataka), complaining about the high temps and affected crop. I have no idea if it's true or not and if it is - to what degree, but high temps have been confirmed by weather stations, services, etc. Thus, at first and personally, I do expect some reduction to be stated and then everything else :). Reduction can be meaningful or not - it remains to be seen, but again, the temps were/are reality, not guesses and reduction would be inline with normal reaction of tree, etc... Most origins are not that technically/technologically advanced as Brazil and so, I would assume that in a bad scenario, effect would be of higher degree... There were rumors of possible quality issues in Brazil, how meaningful it is or will be :), if at all - remains to be seen, but weather was not perfect to provide superb crop... Weather could be manually :) corrected by some producers but for sure, not by all of them... :) :) :)
producers are known to hold product back to increase prices, this isnt shocking at all.
Co dalej będzie? Jak myślicie?
since I stopped drinking coffee in January, my sleep quality drastically improved.. you should try it
Sam, is this comment a low key, subtle way of influencing the market? 😂
In Asia it should become a true fashion, then it blows usually... Then it gets normalized and follows trend line. Coffee shops continue expanding in Vietnam, but it was like this 20 years ago... China may be close to that explosion, nobody knows... :)
**** It was not like this 20 years ago...
Two recent interesting observations: 1) the idea, that El Nino managed to produce (could produce :) :) :) ) some damage to crop in Vietnam got absorbed by the market; 2) Judy Ganes, who was not bullish recently :), mentioned that there are worries that processing yields for current Brazilian crop might come in light too; 3) European cocoa grinding fell only 2.2% despite rocketed prices (same JD mentioned that it could be the result of some processors to lock in as much physical supplies as they can :).
Temps continue breaking records, abnormal temps (for this period of time) are expected in Central Brazil. Expected doesn't mean materialized but means possible risk looking forward. Record temps in Africa, India, Asia..., Mexico, CA... Not meaning it will wipe out the crop (it will not !!!) but lighter yield :) can be produced in some areas :)...
No frost but there was really difficult news out of Vietnam.
(Reuters) "The total climate cycle involving the two phenomena and the neutral phase usually takes between two and seven years, but experts stated that the transition period is getting shorter and shorter"
Maya a.k.a Big John is back... let's see what she's got to say
Gap closed.
According to the latest forecast, the next 45 days without rain.
they cant predict weather from day to day, you expect them to predict it a month a head?
also, from may-sept its harvest season, meaning dry weather isnt a bad thing for production.
As usual at this time
...
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