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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 24 (KCc3)

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199.60 +3.35    +1.71%
05:05:00 - Delayed Data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 196.25
  • Open: 197.30
  • Day's Range: 197.20 - 200.10
US Coffee C 199.60 +3.35 +1.71%

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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 50 minutes ago
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From Maja, is this really true? World #coffee production is stagnated except for handful of origins causing growing BIG trouble to #KC with ICO stats confirming; Ivory Coast, from 6.32M to 1.9M - Angola, from 5M to 52K bags - Colombia, from 18M to 10.5M - Mexico, from 6.2M to 4M - El Salvador, from 3M to 600K - Costa Rica, from 3M bags to 1.4M - Thailand, from 1.7M to 500K - Cameroon, from 1.7M to 268K - Ecuador, from 2.4M Bags to 550K - Guatemala, from 5.1M to 3.4M - Congo, Dem Rep, from 1.6M to 350K - Kenya, from 1.7M to 650K
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Kenan Hajdari
Kenan Hajdari 41 minutes ago
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Maya says : we're gonna have less coffee. Next year- 5 million carryover...
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Hubert Leens
Hubert Leens 2 hours ago
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Friday 180 ?
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 12 hours ago
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Someone took some coffee from ICE ;)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago
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Colombian average production from 14/15 to 20/21 was roughly 14mb per year, from 21/22 to 23/24 - roughly 11.6mb per year. As area is flat and density is flat, what increase would be reasonable to suppose, if all goes nicely ? In my very personal view, it would be 2.4mb to repeat previous average high number: 11.6 + 2.4 = 14mb. This number is equal or below world annual consumption increase. Is it meaningful in a macro balance ? :) :) :) How high is the chance that Colombia will get to 16-18mb production ? Nobody knows, but recent history shows that within 5-6 years Colombia was limited by average (!) 14mb.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago
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There was a time when 2mb of Colombian production was making all the wolves crying... Not anymore...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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About early start in SP, of April 25: The heat waves that hit the State in 2024 made harvesters and coffee producers in Bragança Paulista, in the interior of SP, work earlier. According to the president of the Bragança Paulista Coffee Growers Association, José Oscar Ferreira Cintra, the extreme heat is unusual for the Bragança region, having caused the harvest to advance. “In the last three, four years we have had excess heat, cold, lack of rain, so there has really been a change. Many people say no, that they are cycles, but these cycles are actually far above and far below what is normally considered the climate in our region”, he explained. Still according to the president, the grains will be smaller this harvest, but there will be a large quantity of coffee. “I personally think it will be a good quality coffee, however, it is not in one grain size. We will have smaller beans, so less weight, but there will be a lot of coffee”, he added.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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This is what Rodrigo and previously several times Oscar were referring to... 6% infestation is a high index value, 6% correlates well with previous strong El Nino, nothing devastating and out of the range. So, it turns out, Oscar was not kidding :) :) :)...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 9 hours ago
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From Cenicafe: Colombia is preparing for an attempt to recover Arabica production, but some problems still pose challenges for the country ahead. According to data released by the National Coffee Research Center (Cenicafé), the work shows a worrying borer infestation. The problem began to be observed in January this year. According to the data, the percentage of drill bits is above 2% in all production areas, with the exception of Quindío and Nariño. According to the local press, the National Coffee Federation even issued an alert for urgent action in the most affected areas, with levels exceeding 5%.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 14 hours ago
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ICO report (covering March), open sources: 1) Global green bean exports in March 2024 totalled 11.87 million bags, as compared with 10.85 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 9.4%. As a result, the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to March is 62.64 million bags, as compared with 56.36 million bags over the same period a year ago, up 11.1%. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas were the two main groups responsible for the overall strong growth observed in March 2024, together accounting for 91.5% of the 1.02-million-bag net gain in total exports. This further consolidated their already-dominant positions, increasing their combined share of the total exports to 72.5% in March 2024 as compared to 70.8% in March 2023. For the year to date, the combined share is an even higher 73.4%.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 13 hours ago
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7) Colombia added 625kb in first 6 m of MY 23/24, but Brazil was the main engine, now for both A+R :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 13 hours ago
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Indonesia, USDA (last 2023 report), production 19 - 23, A, R: A - roughly 1.3mb per year, flat no growth; R 19 - 9.5, 20 - 9.4, 21 - 9.3, 22 - 10.5, 23 - 8.4, roughly 9.4mb a year, flat. (R14 - 9.1, R15 - 9.3, R16 - 8.7, R17 - 9.4mb, R18 - 9.4mb). R production in Indonesia is flat last 10 years on rising consumption.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 13 hours ago
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By USDA world coffee consumption in 2014 was roughly 142mb. By USDA world coffee consumption in 2023 was roughly 170mb, it would be in 2024 172mb-173mb, what gives 30mb or 3mb average annual increase in global consumption considered by ... USDA. Well, long term trends are often stubborn things :) :) :).
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 13 hours ago
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Brazil saves the world.
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Erick gallegos
Erick gallegos 13 hours ago
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So whats the price prediction you mates have
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Zelda 3000
Zelda 3000 May 08, 2024 4:44AM ET
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Good opportunities to make long positions it seems.
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Fudbal Fudbalko
Fudbal Fudbalko 22 hours ago
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Wait for Friday
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Gero Pal
GeroPal 22 hours ago
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lol
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MGom MGom
MGom 14 hours ago
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Ostrich flight ?
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Abdulrahman Salem
Abdulrahman Salem May 07, 2024 12:27PM ET
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is it possible to see the prices goes to 180 in coming days?
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Coffee KC
Coffee KC May 07, 2024 12:27PM ET
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Rather focus on 150 next week, in 15 days max
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sharp madoff
sharp madoff May 07, 2024 12:27PM ET
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only stoch might look that way, others solo or combined are opposite, i take the bet mate, whats the deal then? xD
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Hubert Leens
Hubert Leens 22 hours ago
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I think so
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coffee arabica
coffee arabica May 07, 2024 9:15AM ET
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If hold above 194 better buy, damaged in Vietman is already made, it may rain a lot know it will not change nothing, here in Brazil new crop is getting in the market with smal amount of screan 17/18 it may show a break in the numbers
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria May 07, 2024 9:15AM ET
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I saw some videos of the control of this cochineal, it's surreal, it's practically a bath of pesticides, a large amount of water per hectare since this new cochineal does not respond to control by insecticides applied via soil as usual.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 9:15AM ET
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5 months ago***
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 9:15AM ET
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Observing couple of farms in Vietnam during her trip, Judy Ganes said that in relation to the level of infestation, she's more concerned with the bug than upcoming rain :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 9:15AM ET
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Drought aside: Conilon coffee plants did not present damage to the photochemical apparatus until they were exposed to 30-37ºC in the long term (Rodrigues et al., 2016b), mainly due to the increase of enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant compounds and by means of protein activity (Martins et al., 2016). On the other hand, it was observed by DaMatta et al., (2012, 2018) that high temperatures can compromise both the fruit set and development, which can result in premature ripening, etc. Every farm is different but the tree is still the tree.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 9:15AM ET
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Rodrigo, some African origins do not really use ferts and chemicals :). They manage it somehow and even grow production, but imagine, if some real attack (of a scale or new variety) will happen one day ?
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Ian Ngonda
Ian Ngonda May 07, 2024 5:04AM ET
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is the 150 in 15 days bet still alive?
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Coffee KC
Coffee KC May 07, 2024 5:04AM ET
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Well all the smart and big boys here at the forum had no guts to bet...now they probably eat their tounghs they did not bet.....;)
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Coffee KC
Coffee KC May 07, 2024 5:04AM ET
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Sam Houston, the self claimed guru started getting long at 195...soon he will cry
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Fudbal Fudbalko
Fudbal Fudbalko May 07, 2024 5:04AM ET
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You're stupid, where were you at 240
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Sam Houston
Sam Houston May 07, 2024 5:04AM ET
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what did I self claim? I longed KC at 195? maybe ur confused?
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MGom MGom
MGom May 07, 2024 4:22AM ET
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Rain, rain and rain....anywhere with coffee plants, always miraculous
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 4:22AM ET
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That's the main issue. Most traders always overvalue or undervalue the fundamentals, or want them to kick in immediately, etc. Farmers from lots of origins referred to weather issues, but nobody said about lost crop or 50% lost crop so far, etc. Thus, it would imply that production will happen but unlikely higher than it was and most likely lower than it was, though in current circumstances stagnant production on a global basis will be bad. Precedents would imply that it will come lower than it was. For real spike real catalyst is needed and it is not there or not there yet. What we saw, if to consider that it was based on Vietnam R weather issue was not a real catalyst at all as it would imply roughly 2mb less produced but nothing more... But big players/commercials are looking at bigger/wider picture, and for sure, they aware of potential problems not just in Vietnam...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 4:22AM ET
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The one should not compare Brazil with any other origin. Brazil is never sleeping agro lab and powerhouse, supplying new cultivars and tech to the market on a relatively monthly basis :) :) :). Current prices and calmed chemicals offer some incentive and it realized by many, farmers will fight for the yield while it's economically viable, no doubt about that... But it makes no sense to compare Brazil to Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Uganda, etc... it's all very different there and so, the one should not expect the same outcome there as in Brazil. Besides, tree is still a tree and it lives by its vegetative cycle the one likes it or not. Many factors affect that cycle in way that crop is not getting devastated :) :) :) - just the yield is getting lower.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 4:22AM ET
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Higher mealybug infestation is one of indicators. 200 level is very important level from many standpoints and consolidation around it is/would be nothing strange. What should/may bring the market down to 100 besides some political/etc issues ? News about record global crop and big stocks at the destinations. It is more than hard :) to see a record global crop in current circumstances... And if to rely on GSM progression, the way it was known from the last similar cycle, it just started, main weather issues should be ahead... Average size of coffee farm in Vietnam is about 2ha, those farms still influence main production. Different management and approach vs 200ha Brazilian irrigated mechanized farm.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 4:22AM ET
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Yesterday it was +39C in Bangalore, wave continues through Oceania and Asia, etc. Porto Alegre recently recorded 33.3C, it was second highest for May within last 115 years or so... Porto Alegre is not about coffee but it underlines the degree of anomalies... Anomalies everywhere and always mean only one thing: higher potential risk, not lower :). CA, Mexico, etc... Whatever way the one looks at the stations data, it is not like big damage is seen, but hardly a higher production or record crop :). USDA last report on India, in my view, was a good example. India is 5th R producer. A was conservatively considered :) being less immune to the stress. :) Also, the one should not fool himself: lots of origins are not that advances in terms of cultivars (resistance, yield ) as Brazil is, not yet :) :) :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 07, 2024 4:22AM ET
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The trade is based on the fact that if not in this year but then in next Brazil will always save the market somehow. We'll see :) :) :) if this concept works no matter what or not so in current cycle :) :) :).
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To Mas
To Mas May 07, 2024 4:21AM ET
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reversal day
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Ian Ngonda
Ian Ngonda May 07, 2024 4:21AM ET
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im so short!!
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