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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
223.28
-4.82(-2.11%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Only a question, what were the plants doing, while water availability in the soil in Minas Gerais was at critical levels between 0% and 30%, which is well below the minimum level for crop development of 60% ? Now it has rained cats and dogs. It was bound to, right? So now we go back to the one month in the desert, and you got your lovely, whole cow for dinner. A bit overwhelming, no?
Noticias uol ultimas-noticias/bbc/2021/10/19/o-fenomeno-la-nina-esta-de-volta-o-que-isso-significa-para-o-clima-do-brasil-e-da-regiao.amp.htm
After two year with worst deficit hidric the plants are already super stressed and even massive rain will not replace the water the trees needed during this two years, in other words, you can not replace in 2021the lack of water in 2018/2019, the damaged is already done.
Beware of la Niña... The real is the biggest setback, if you are bullish.
Production in world's 4th largest grower Indonesia has ended down with final crop numbers for 2020-21 coming in 1.4-1.6 Mln bags smaller than expected and outlook for next 2021-21 crop pegged to see further decline.
BRL R$ 5,5942 +1,50%, observe, this favors Brazilian exports.
 the less is to export the Price has to be more sweet.
 100% :)
 In the equation: Production = export (KC in US$) + domestic consumption, with the devaluation of the BRL, it seems that domestic consumption is weaker
buy or sell?
Both!
you know what’s funny Buying this high and expecting to sell higher when rain is there in coffee regions when cargo shipping is easing Guys be careful
  I have said before in this forum If this antifreeze says it is black you know it is white He always tells the opposite
how about freight rate?hope you managed to close before increase
I did indeed!! Costs are bit higher but are ok if can shop around.
Better wait 196$ to buy…
BRL  R$ 5.556  +0.79% Post
201-203, looks to be turning in to support... end of the week at 207 ish. 1hr wicking on the low side and wider markets turned positive.
I see a double top triple bottom forming! Squiggly lines….
BRL  R$ 5.5370  +1.39%
FYI, Fall 2020, Conab: The 2018 and 2020 crops had the highest agricultural yields ever recorded, it said, around 33 bags per hectare. Brazil’s coffee area increased 1.4% from 2019 to 2020, said Conab, to 2.16 million hectares, as around 300,000 hectares of coffee trees planted a couple of years ago came to production.
Just wanted to underline that certain percentage is now removed from expectations no matter what good will happen to the crop next couple of years.
In Brazil, it's not just a container that's missing. There is a lack of glyphosate and supplies. There are several frost-affected producers who are concerned about the high costs of recovering crops. Some are switching cultures as the turnaround time is much faster. 1 ton of input is surpassing 4000 Reais and some formulations are already missing.
 This is another thing to consider for the future. Grains prices seem to stay elevated for a while, new "breeds" are coming, some farmers whose trees were seriously damaged may switch to grains (soy, corn, wheat). NATGAS can go much higher as the winter didn't even started yet in NH - the fertilizers will get even more costly, less fertilizers = lower yield...
And there is no deficit of coffee in the world at the moment.
There really isn’t…
It's good to remember: 1) not ALL coffee belt was hit by the frost; 2) the drought was severe but there are al lot of productive trees in Brazil still :)  3) the growth and productivity of coffee tree is well studied as the impact of frost and drought also is - damaged tree can’t produce a good crop; 4) not all flowers are beans and not all beans are equal in size/weight; 5) 200 may be proved soon not being enough expensive for the market, but it is not … cheap and it's important level so, the consolidation around is normal and it may be deep consolidation indeed. :)
Buy low sell high - good trading Buy high high sell low - bad trading Buy high sell high- hmmm
South or North? Last bet please!
200 was resistance before, looks to be support now... picture will be clearer later in the week
The news coming from Minas Gerais is wonderful, the news and the pictures are incredible, the density, size and quantity of the flowers, as if there was no frost or drought.
What do you think about the quantity of brazil arabica yield ? Will it reach 40 million bags in 2022?
 The conservative evaluation of the potential loss in 2022 crop, related to drought and frost is 10 mil bags. If your basis for 2020 arabica crop is, for example, 47 mil bags then it's more likely 37 mil bags. It would be correct to consider that 40 mil bags will be max arabica crop in 2022.
Also, 10 mil bags is ... a lot of coffee :). A very serious reduction within growing consumption.
It's a good start, this is our year.
What do you mean by that ???
GCA  -107.5k bags sep21
 With today's COT, where funds increased by +6,411 net long contracts, it looks bullish.
 -379k bags jan21-sep21
Today's  daily candle was not technically beautiful.
If it's not right time to bounce then when is that time?
It looks that all bulls are waiting for 202.60 to be hit precisely. No trust in 202.70...
 Bulls are wet not wild, its raining in Brazil.
 Spring smelling bulls :)
Long term,  bulls in command. In short term, now supports are 202.60 and 197.70. Resistance resistance 207.35 and 209.10
Awaiting the GCA report today after the market closes.
doji close.. buy now close 209 end of day..
If this is :) wave 4 of 5 at 1h chart then lower channel support 202.6 should hold. :) If this is wave 4 of 5 :) then wave 5 should brings us to 225 area. Wave gurus, have a word! :)
 Waves do not work with commodities like coffee. How do you put waves theory into frost event for example. It makes no sense.
 That's why I asked wave gurus for help! :) They can "wave" almost everything :).
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