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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
223.28
-4.82(-2.11%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Absurd PA today. - BIG manipulation going on. - Fundamentals are screaming BUY - but I guess MM wanted it down, so they can buy cheaper.
You sound like someone who is not getting things to go their way... This runnish has had a *****of rally and is way overvalued at these levels.
It looks like suddenly world full of coffee but with boogeyman omicron less people still alice or free to drink it lol
world full of coffey are you serious????Thats the funniest thing i heard this month...look at the damage in brazil, civil war in ethiopia, ship container crisis, truck drivers crisis and you say wordl full of coffey? :d SORRY
 Maks Mars was being sarcastic.
tacno je ! i was sarcastic but still doubtful…something will be more clear in the near future lol
USDA in nov21 = 56.3 Brasil crop 2021/2022
USDA is very solid. They follow one rule always: they differ real facts and speculations. They never want to seed panic, of any kind... Our :) numbers are all speculations at this point. USDA, if there is no verified way to get the numbers, will be trying to keep neutral. Then, when and if more material facts will reveal themselves, USDA will adjust its numbers. But by any means they don't want to start panic of any kind. Panic destabilize everything.
69.90 M 202//2021 to 56.30 M 2021/2022, around - 20%. Is reasonable
Those are two big organisations , ICO and CONAB. Difference 8%. Thus, if we'll switch to opening stocks, why not to suppose that real stocks are 8% lower? It wouldn't be strange. CONAB is a serious organisation 100%, but its prime goal is to support and protect the exporters. It should not surprise...
When production is fine and going up, 8% difference in openning stock doesn't mean much. It's just carry over number, nothing else. But when real problem with production occures, it starts to matter.
As the prime goal of Sincal is to support the farmers and thus, high prices. Also should not surprise... :)
I may be wrong (not remembering correctly) but it seems that when ICO number for BRL total 2019-20 crop year was 58, 211 m bags, CONAB number was about 63m bags. Think of the difference. 5m bags figure is about 8% in relation to ICO total production jumber for that year.
production number
Exercise can be continued forever, but 60 -15 = 45, and this may be a very realistic number indeed. 15 mil shortage can be just A, or both A+R, etc. A very conservative approach would offer the range of 45 - 50 mil bags for 2021-22 crop.
There were different figures circulating... If to take ICO number of total 2019-20 BRL production as 58 mil bags, 58 - 18 = 40 mil bags. If to take 60 mil bags round number, 60 - 18 = 42 mil bags. If to take more conservative total shortage as 15 mil bags and 2019-20 production as 58 mil bags, 58 - 15 = 43 mil bags. 60 mil production - 15 mil bags shortage = 45 mil bags.
Conservative and reasonable forecast for the shortage of Arabica would be 12 - 15 mil bags, basing on what has happened and on what is known for fact. Robusta shortage, to keep it reasonable also, can be taken as 3 mil bags. In total, it can make about 18 mil bags. Now, the question is what number was total production in 2019-20 year?
Now, it would be nice to see current 1h candle turning green at 8.59. :)
There's a major support region at 231-233. First time appeared was on Nov 18. Looks like lots of stop losses are positioned at this area.
Support should be coming anytime now.
Kind of newbie here. Looks like the trend is to go high at some point, maybe next week, could reach 240 or higher again, am I wrong?
I just roll the dices…it looks like going south for a while lol
Kind of newbie here. Looks like the trend is to go high at some point, maybe next week, could reach 240 or higher again, am I wrong?
Kind of newbie here. Looks like the trend is to go high at some point, maybe next week, could reach 240 or higher again, am I wrong?
Long awaited -10% day (buy the rumors sell the news) or buying opportunity ?
Closing my short from yesterday. 236.3
bullish trend will still continue or this is end
Too much unknown at this point. We dont know whats going to happen with the weather before the next crop... La Nina and further depletion risks of soil moisture contnent and ab normal weather in Vietnam and Colombia effectiing yields, The coffee situation can get much much worse
@ShortDude, better wait USDA report
I am waiting for green daily candle ;)
 One day, but not Today
coffee will be a luxurious and extinct beverage by next year if climate goes like that :)
Remember that the retail price is just a fraction of the coast of beans. - Meaning that a high price will not  be seen in same % at your local Starbucks or Walmart.
yet PA tells us something different.
Brazil Coffee Growers Association (Sincal) says 2022 harvest expected sharply down to 36.3M-39M 60-kg bags total Arabica and Robusta beans in FIRST official preliminary forecast for new 2022 crop. source: Maja Twitter. So low that I dont know if there is no mistake here? If true, do the math guys.
Today, coffee 300. I see audi QS3.
Not credible source
Why you dropped A6? :)
BREAKING: Brazil Coffee Growers Association (Sincal) says 2022 harvest expected sharply down to 36.3M-39M 60-kg bags total Arabica and Robusta beans in FIRST official preliminary $JO #KC forecast for new 2022-23 crop cycle (MORE)
correction coming next level 235 in 1 day
 look at the 1D chart, support at 244,7 was broken yeasterday, today it went up, but didnt break 244,7...look at the same chart at nov 29...typical trend
Tj Scarfase i mean more correction more..After that it will go up to 250 again but it has to fall to 235-233 maybe more
OK understood, I agree.
weekly pivot testing!
Could drop to 238, but don´t really think it will. - So puts in first buy here 240,50
Does 150bps rate hike in Brazil have any impact on coffee prices in short or mid term? Strong real is bullish i guess if hike can provide a surge against $
Adding a short here.... 242.1
i dont know if its wrong, but im adding more longs, seems to be a last Chance getting it at those prices for a while like it Was at 120 140, 170 than at 200 again
I am still massively net long but buying a little insurance here, see if I can get a quick short in. 241, should hold for now but it can dip down to 236
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