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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
223.28
-4.82(-2.11%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

GCA +97k bags
GCA +97k bags mai22. Total now are 6.003.731 bags. So far no shortage of coffee
GCA +97K bags mai22, total 6.003.731 bags. So far no shortage of coffee.
I said beforenext month 250, it looks like it will hit sooner
wait day 06/23
Why?
jj
CECAFE, certs continue at a good pace, +25.5%, m/m. So far no shortage of coffee
Agree, Export volume was bigger than anticipated by many. Unanswered quesion is, what fueled this export? Better crop or undervalued brazilian stocks. Do you know?
No one knows for sure, but they have observed many producers with inventories on their farms, which makes accounting and forecasting carryover difficult.
.
South of Minas, Andradas. Today 2°.
2° is not normal, it may be for you but in a tropical country it is already synonymous with harm.
Nature field is not a greenhouse. Weather is not ideal. Enough to be not harmful.
Black frost season is july and august. . Isnt IT. ......
CECAFE, certs continue at a good pace, +10.9%, 05/13 to 06/13.
Next month back to 250
219.20 tested. Found a good volume of purchases at this level. For bulls, it is necessary to keep the market above this level. With the USDA numbers it will be a hard mission, Winter is coming.
ICE stocks down again. 1mln very close.
FND is coming. Today, BRL +1.80% and residual options liquidation is not the best combination.
Towards 219.20
The best fight against inflation is fight against high commodities prices. ;)
Migration to US Treasuries could be helping to liquidate commodities.
No frost in sight in foreseeable future. Market surroundings are scary, brave to be bull now.
Curitiba is in souther Brazil, for sure not MG. In general coffee areas are now more to north, besause of historical frosts. There was no frost today in coffee areas. Everyone can see it by PA.
When was the record frost last year. In June Or July.....???
We already have temperatures at 3° today. Any polar mass that enters the south of Brazil will take 2 to 3 days to bring down temperatures in the Southeast.
ICE down again. Soon below 1mln
At this breakneck pace, at least 15 business days. That's if the pending bags don't increase, to spoil the decline.
BRL +1,90%
COP + 2.60%
I told you...
A primary mistake, not considering or disdaining a Brazilian crop forecast by the USDA and worse, thinking that it is not bearish. The weather in Brazil (cold and rain) is an important support for prices. Technically, in the medium term, bulls remain in command above 219.20.
Well I see a beautiful daily falling wedge. Bullish right?
That's all @shortdude
* Did you sell around 255 ?
Sold at 251, covered shorts around 22xish. Then long from 215 covered around 228. As you see not ideal. Now on sidelines. Too many opposite forces to me. I start to be bearish yet winter has to be over without damage.
Better stop, breathe and analyze. Forget weird forces, this not exist, work with SLs. I'm always rooting for you.
Bought 231,50 - Good RR IMO.
Support didn´t hold up, unfortunately.
Support is around 230, still game is not over. In summary coffee is now pure weather market. Risk is very high in both directions, yet after winter without frost price should go considerably down.
CECAFE Brazil Coffee Exports Rose 5.1% in May to 2.8M Bags, Cecafe Says.
+5,1% y/y
ICE  Stocks -920 bags, pending bags + 2.6k bags, now are 11.1k bags.
USDA 22/23 Brazil harvest. 64.3 million bags + 11% y/y
You not ? why ? Expect world consumption and carry to be released. For Carryover, we already have an increase for EUROPE, Vietnam and Brazil. There will be no shortage of coffee in the world.
USDA is always bearish, production better than consensus. Stocks in Europe up MoM (as usual in this part of year) in last months, yet still 20% lower YoY. There is no shortage if 2023/24 crop will be bumper one.
Consensus is lower because some numbers are well below average. EUROPE stocks from December 2021 to May 2022 are up 3.38%, remember the last USDA report was in December 2021 and again, for CarryOver we already have an increase for EUROPE, Vietnam and Brazil in the report USDA current
As clearly posted by Mgom, there are always 2 sides tothe coin...
Accumulation of fertilizers in ports signals further price drop Tatiana Freitas and Tarso Veloso Tue., June 7, 2022 12:52 PM (Bloomberg) -- A glut of fertilizers at Brazil's biggest ports signals that input prices may have to fall further before farmers can start buying. In Paranaguá, private warehouses have reached their maximum capacity of 3.5 million tons, according to Luiz Teixeira da Silva, director of operations at the port. At the Port of Santos, a terminal operated by VLI Logistics, one of two that store fertilizers, is also full, according to people with knowledge of the matter who requested anonymity because the information is not public.
Fertilizer prices hit record highs after the war in Ukraine sparked fears of shortages. Brazil imports around 85% of its fertilizers and Russia is the main source. As supply has normalized, prices have dropped in recent weeks, but farmers are still not buying. They expect more price cuts, according to Marina Cavalcante, an analyst at Bloomberg's Green Markets. “Producers have an expectation that if it's going down this week, and it went down last week too, it's going to keep going down,” she said. "So they will wait for further declines to effectively buy." Brazil is the world's largest exporter of several crops, including soybeans. Farmers can put off their purchases until the day before soybeans are planted in September. But if they all wait too long, a last-minute rush can lead to ground transportation bottlenecks that can leave some of them empty-handed. More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
Quote from 'Roast Magazine'The cascading effects of the pandemic, supply chain pressures and Russia’s war in Ukraine have skyrocketed the price of nitrogen fertilizer, by some estimates as much as 300%, since 2020.As a result, farmers of all types and sizes worldwide are taking a big hit — and few have been hit quite as hard as coffee farmers.Coffee farmers operate on razor-thin margins, often selling coffee for less than the cost of production. As if that weren’t enough, many coffee farmers are also contending with a changing climate, pests and diseases that threaten their production output.Unlike some other crops, coffee prices have not increased in step with surging fertilizer prices, leaving farmers in an even more precarious position.Contemporary coffee farming often involves the annual application of synthetic fertilizers. Without these inputs, many farms lack the soil fertility to produce fruitful crops.The average rate of nitrogen fertilizers used on coffee farms is comparable to hybrid corn, which is one of the crops with the highest nitrogen demand. Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers applied at these rates produce a plethora of negative effects, many of which compound over time.
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