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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
200.33
-1.12(-0.56%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

CECAFE, when you least expect it, coffee is emerging from the depths.
last day of nov22, Certs up 222.406 bags, lets wait ...
Last day of dec 22 price up. LOL
Oscar Correa or Correa Oscar ? I'm in doubt.
When cocoa was very expensive someone invented nutella which requires a little amount of cocoa and more hazelnuts. Same with coffee, while coffee got expensive people turned to other drinks. We don't want to admit it but we have less need for coffee nowadays.
Brazilian current export doesn't confirm it, historicaly speaking :). As the growth of retail (coffee shops) in Asia and Middle East :). But if finns will be doing fine with their lab coffee then nobody knows what will happen next :). Coffee consumption in Brazil (by ABIC) grew from 13.6mb in 2001 to 21.5mb in 2021 (roasters based), retail price for roast/ground coffee went up almost 100% (4.5-->9R$) from 2011 to 2021 (by ABIC) :).
Lab coffee... you mean chemical produced.... i hope to never see that
AgriMan You're old school :). New generation will switch in a blink if the product will get fashionable :).
2022 Brazilian annual export seems to be between 39mb and 40mb. For simplicity will get break down as: S - 4mb, R - 1.8mb, A - 33.8mb. USDA projects 2022 crop as A of 39.8mb and R as of 22.8mb, domestic consumption around 22.5mb (roasters based). Let's make a primitive cross check. Domestic import and soluble are about 80% R and 20% A. Then: 22.5mb of domestic consumption is 18mb of R and 4.5mb of A, 4mb of S is 3.2mb of R and 0.8mb of A. Total usage of R, annual export based: 18mb of DC + 3.2mb of S + 1.8mb of Export = 23mb --> produces negative 0.5mb. Total usage of A, annual usage based: 33.8mb of Export + 4.5mb of DC + 0.8mb of S = 39.1mb, leaves 0.7mb stocks. Total balance: 0.7 - 0.5 = 0.2mb. Ending stocks for MY21/22 were marked (USDA) as 0.5mb. As calendar 2022 year starts before marketing year 21/22 ends :), this check up shows (USDA based) that 2022 crop covers 2022 usage and leaves ending stocks for MY22/23 at the level of 0.7mb, or let's say 1mb.
2023 crop potentials: 1) if the view that biannuality will reverse and the crop will be perfect will be correct, Brazil will have a chance to add to existing very small stocks; 2) if it will not we may face: A - 35/36 mb, R - 18/19mb. Roughly 54mb crop + 1mb stocks vs 63mb (export+DC) shows negative 9mb. No matter if those are gonna be exact numbers or not, but I'm sure, this is a possible bad outcome that many also keep in their minds. But for 2) varriant to be true, CECAFE should start to reflect it at least since March or so... :) :) :)
I agree, anything is possible ! But NOW these are the numbers, the ones published in the last report by USDA and where some operators will lookstay, the rest becomes possibilities. Next USDA report on June 22 only, until then...
*jun23
I'm out for now...doesn't look like that new years rally:)...will wait and see what happens around 165...blessed new year for everybody
Happy new year man :)
After New Year... short squeeze?
Usually Cheers to new year!!!!
KC shall be arouund 1 usc realisticallyEverything higher is pure speculation !
kc shall be around 2 usc realistically. Everthing lower is pure speculation!!! Easy:)
I can write the same also with 3 and 4 for more optimistics!!!:)
Finally, market ia heading down, where it should !
My technical picture is still on track for 180, moved my trailing stop to 168...until that breaks I'm still bullish short term.
More technical....I think as usual there is a lot of emotion and hype around a possible recession (not in one yet) so players are wary...on coffee as long as 167 holds I keep my view...think coffee is more elastic...people won't stop drinking coffee...
Yeah, last year price was explosive but it was supply deficit related. Following year we seem to have still little of oversupply (as per forecasts at least). And during oversupply the price averaged around 110-130. Not that it is super indicative but still that's the reason why price is lower (as well as recession fears and so). This is my opinion and it is biased of course, so please don't hate me!
:) not at all...I keep track of evreyones views...the over supply is the elephant in the room...we don't really know, stocks just kept coming and coming and I think the fall in price with dumping on the market must in some way worked some of it away...regarding the new harvest, there are so any views...
In November 2022, Robusta coffee exports from Vietnam were 111.26 thousand tons, up 21.2% compared to the same period in 2021. In the first 11 months of 2022, Robusta coffee exports reached approximately 1, 4 million tons, up 14.8% over the same period of the previous year. 2021.
ICE +10.8 k bags and Total + Pending is 1.055 M bags
Finally somebody told.them right in the face ! Thats it MGom ! Break that bullish spell !
We are in the middle of the ON year, exports should be higher, not lower than last year. Exports should be higher every month, thanks to farmers delivering good crops to the warehouses. However, this year is different. Every analysis that predicted a drop in the KC price assumed a sharp increase in exports in the following months YoY. It looks like the exact opposite will happen.
22/23 would be an ON year due to the sequence, but we all knew that it would be an OFF year, lower productivity, due to the 2021 frosts. The export numbers are surprising, up to ten22, for a not considered OFF (22/23). production or remaining stocks? There was an inversion in the production cycles in Brazil, which will make 23/24 become an ON cycle
I cannot confirm that what you write about ON year is a broad consensus. :)
ShortDude you deny the reality MGom is explaining. Wrong mate ! Wrong !
weekly up here is VERY BULLISH
Why ? Explain
Why is KC going up ? There is so much coffee around and demand is killed ?!?! I dontget it....
same i ssid i did in other coment here, the fact that the certified coffees are much lower than usyally, tge number vags exported belliw the off year dorsnt matter, also the drop of new beans and all the climate problem we are facing the last three years also doesnt matter “we will harvest 70 million bags”
*Same i said
I don’t know about 70mln bags but for sure 65+ mln
Rocket is starting 🚀
One side note, technically the bulls came back in control in the medium term.
I dont know much about coffee,but... if we get a daily close ubove 172. we probably can see a fast and furious run to 180...if not...probably back to 160
I think back to 125-155
Maybe...maybe not...just like wheat funds are quite short and just needs a catalist to cover...short dude's post coud just be that :)
GAP of yestarday closed and now ...
Down man, down !
2021 total export was about 40.6mb, 11 months 2022 total export was about 36.06mb, current total export is about 2.08mb and it may reasonably reach the figure around 2.8mb assuming remaining several days... Thus, 36.06 + 2.8 = 38.86mb or roughly 39mb. In any case, unlikey :) it will get bigger than 40mb :). What it tells in simple form is that 2022 ON cycle year produced less total export than 2021 OFF cycle year. Anyone may choose the explanation he likes more :), but one is that it could be less coffee for export.
*USDA projects Brazil stocks at 4.12 M for 22/23
MGom Absolutely agree re stocks in EU, JAP and US - they are good to go, etc, and it will be always coffee :). But official (by USDA :) ) about zero stocks figure in Brazil creates basis for a perfect spike trade if good catalyst(s) will appear. First one is CONAB's first evaluation for 2023 crop and then who knows...
I think the market evaluates the future end stocks 500k,of USDA was 21/22 ... 22/23 project 4.12 M bags (+663% to 21/22) and End Stocks world 34 M bags +4,76%
I dont believe in Cecafe minus 1 mil
rice ... but with so much rain in Brazi, I will evaluate the possibility of entering this market
What initial investment is needed ? A cup of rice ? Is that you capacity ? I am all in....
yes ...not maximum 1 cup
Dec 22 export might be around 1mln lower that Dec 21.
...guess you ment that MGom, right ?
In addition to Covid and war.
So in Covid in during wars no one drinks coffee ? Can you explain why ?
Hello short dude
Short here??
cant go wrong with short dude with DXY baci on the roots lol
https://invst.ly/zwhl2 Double bottom and inverse H&S pattern Tgt 192
https://invst.ly/zwic1 Agree. Profit taking time to time is necessary. Although i am looking for 300+ in longterm
300 in what currency? I'm sure that in the next 15 yrs it will trade at a high number... not any time soon
300 wont ever be seen for awhile lol more likely a quick visit to 30 $
ICE, No Grading today Pending bags +10.9k bags.
Surprising but generous and abundant rains, however, have caused some damage to Robusta crops. Simply put, flooding. Some are beginning to shy away from mentioning that the lack of sunshine in recent weeks has not been good for Arabica yields either.
There are no floods in coffee regions (at least in a significant amount of area). The damages are more related to: leaching of fertilizers, appearance of fungi and bacteria (more difficult to control), greater loss of grains due to cercospora and anthracnose, delays in cultural practices,
On 11/21/22, the Total in Bags was 513,189 bags and the Pending Bags were 560,828 bags, with a total of 1,074,017 bags. Today, 12/22/22, the Total Bags is 788.275 bags and Pending Bags is 268,631 bags, with a total of 1,056,906 bags. It shows that the ICE Stocks, when the Pending Bags run out, will be greater than 1 M bags in Stocks available.
Historically a low number. But keep selling.
Dont horry, I preferred to sell before the rains on 8/25... (225 to 155)
I was reading your August/September 2022 comments, you were very wrong, market ranged from 225 to 155, see what you wrote : "Gordon Gecko September 1, 2022, 19:24 MGom, are you a trader? First of all, this year's and last year's harvests are a disaster. So next year's crop is a bad year and it's already compromised. You can scream rains all you want, but nobody is it makes very little difference to the big picture. There will be an official deficit soon. Is your USDA accredited still not in the big harvest field because it was a good year? SMH"
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