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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
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194.28
-0.92(-0.47%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Short dude, you probably still think slavery is also an acceptable way of life?
Just to point out, a large part of the machinery is financed with maturities of over 5 years, reaching 10 by the government.
Another example is that 20 years ago we abandoned it and switched part of the coffee to eucalyptus, at the time there was good demand for wood for pulp in the region. Result: plantations have increased so much that our eucalyptus is still there, it is unfeasible at current prices and because we are in the mountains, nobody wants to buy at the right price.
of course it is not slavery, it is a choise many farmers had taken… my parents told me always coffee prices are like lottery; my opinion is always be prepared for bad years and combine coffee with other products to be succesfull in farming.
CECAFE +205.8K bags, back on track, after yestarday. Estimating exports of 3.19 M bags for mar23.
25,5k bags disapeared from ICE today. Bearish as it is much less than 50k!
(ICO) Price, paid to growers in Brazil: 1990 - 1993, roughly 50c; 2000 - 2004 - roughly 50c. In 2019 low was around 80c. We may ask Rodrigo what he thinks about surviving in current conditions for average farmer within 4 years at the price of 50c.
Tell me honestly, will the 23/24 season be better than the previous one? And if so, by how much?
Short Dude, what planet are you from? Coffee at .50 cents. Yeah, sure.You probably still buy Coca Cola at .10 x bottle / can?
Oscar, hats off to the Colombians, 2 to 3 harvests in a year, here it becomes unfeasible, I still don't understand how they manage it.
By TA, the bulls are losing control in the medium term heading possible test of the support of 171/170, which if broken projects a test in 150 area. To the other side if 171/170 resists or bulls would only return to control in the medium term, only above 194.
Maks, you became very conservative ! :)
with CW expiry end June i m so cautious lol
I'm waiting for 155 area as well :).
Cash price 194,26? What does that mean?
From Investopedia: Cash prices are published by a number of different financial information service providers and are not the same as the futures price. These prices reflect buying and selling of a variety of actual or "physical" commodities in the marketplace. On the other hand, the futures prices come from prices on the futures exchanges and reflect what the commodity might be worth in later months. The cash price is the amount paid for commodities on the spot market, where large manufacturers commonly purchase the commodities they need for production in their factories. Commodities are physical products that are generally indistinguishable, no matter which company brings them to the marketplace.When paying cash prices, manufacturers are not speculating on the price of the commodities they need. Speculation is more common in the futures rather than the cash market. Instead, manufacturing companies are physically purchasing the raw materials they need for their manufacturing activities.
Thank you. So, abundance or lack of physical coffee? ;)
The dominance of the narrative that the worst is over and the future will be wonderful and abundant with cheap coffee.... and for now the market in backwardation and expensive spot. The trade, however, is in futures.
And Robusta is green again. In fact, Robusta has lost the world's second largest exporter since Brazil basically stopped exporting.
Coffee in 99% of time is bearish. Always something bearish is on schedule. Flowering, new crop raind and so on...
That's the nature of the beast :). If to project rise in consumption over 3 years as 7.5mb and somehow some :) (torrential rains, lower ferts application, rust, phoma, etc) obstacles within same three years, if you will assume that most informative supplier of information about area planted and density in Brazil is ... Brazil itself, then you see the clear picture: the spike can be of the size that will make many brokers broke... A specially while we're in a solar minimum grand cycle...:)
A closer look at some 50 years charts (wheat, soybeanoil, OJ, corn, etc) shows same pattern: transition into higher trading range. Last cyclical low higher then previous ones, spike, etc. Each thing has its own DNA but the trend is very illustrative. Also, Brazil and Vietnam are only monster growers / highyielders. :) It will not happen due to just lower crop (acception of it :)) - catalyst is needed, but probability is high. Grand Solar Minimum cycle started around 2020 - that, by the way may explain record crops - the end of supportive cycle, double top :), etc...
Here we go... The Russian cargo ship Swem with 20 thousand tons of fertilizers was detained in the Finnish port of Kotka due to sanctions. Their value is estimated at €12 million.
Peanuts.
ICE Stocks -297 bags, no grading today. Holiday ?
maybe all plays of coffee, wait FED dicision, same to a holiday.
*players of coffee
Or it's that day already! What CofeeKC wrote about, no more coffee in Brazil! ;)
FED +0.25% increases the interest rate. Storage becomes more expensive, in this case the tendency is to consume the stock and maintain the reduction of import imports.
See on the chart how much yields have collapsed in recent days.
still overpriced. i buy coffee at prices before the pandemic.
And how do you find robusta taste? Not too acidic?
noone cares, interest rates will break all the capitalism system. Welcome to china socialism
It's not happening for the first time :)... still surviving...
2001, 2002 ...
China Socialism? Ever been there? I think more California Socialism.
2000 to 2019 US import grew from roughly 23.5mb to 31mb (all forms), net import (import - re-export) roughly grew from 21mb to 28mb. It's about 33% growth in 20 years, 1.65% per year. This number fits the range, ICO projected globally per year until 2030. If to consider 2022 consumption of 170mb -> 1.5% annual growth is roughly 2.5mb and within 3 years -> 7.5mb. Roughly, global production for 2020 record year was projected 175mb and for pre-record (but record for OFF cycle in Brazil) 2019 - 165mb. To keep global stocks to usage ratio in shape, production should follow lead more or less.
170mb annualy -> 14mb/month. Very healthy stocks to usage ratio is 3 months (42mb), minimum - 2 months (28mb). Everything below 2 motnhs - dangerous.
Fed today, +0.25% upside expectations.
No they already announced, that they will pause the hikes in interest rates today
Who where when?
By TA, If bulls do not recover the 190 levels in the short term, it could lose the current hold in the medium term, especially if we miss the 170/171 level.
Just out of curiosity, will there be an El Nino year this year? And since this should have a favorable influence on coffee production over the following two years, shouldn't this have a negative impact on coffee pricing through 2024? There hasn't been much written about how big of an impact a tripling la lina has had on coffee costs over the previous three years.
The chances are 53% of El Ninho's return in June, the warming of ocean waters brings more rain to the southern region of Brazil, in a way the phenomenon can favor agriculture but the problem is that we will be in the harvest phase at this time where excessive and prolonged rains bring great damage to the fruits and the coffee tree (the time when the plants go into dormancy and need a little stress to produce the following year).
Thanks!
CECAFE +209k bags today of new Certs, back to a good pace.
or producers are selling ?
Every transaction needs both sides. A seller will not sell without a buyer. Therefore, there are buyers. A while ago, a small export was bearish, now a larger export is also bearish. What can be bullish? I'm a little confused! ;)
Every theory has its exceptions, in the current case the demand is REDUCING the buying interest, but the current reduction does not mean that the interest is null.
ShortDude. Can you get accurate information about the historical MoM volume traded and "delivered" through ICE over the last 10 years.
And if possible, the data on breaches of contracts.
I do not have such data, maybe MGom?
Fun Facts/Evaluations. But as MGom fairly stated, based on IF :) !!!. Nevertheless, for 2018 and 2020 CONAB and USDA stated roughly same AR numbers - somehow they came to a consensus (but not for R :)). As 2020 was later :), I'll focus on it. CONAB 2020: AR - 1515k ha, 48.8mb, 32.18b/ha; R - 369k ha (total 400k), 14.3mb, 38.8b/ha. USDA 2020: harvested A+R - 2100k ha; AR - 49.7bm, R - 20.2mb, A+R => 33.3b/ha. Reasonably, USDA should show higher yield for AR or at least no lower. 49.7mb : 32.5b/ha = 1529k ha. Then R area 2100 - 1529 = 571k ha and 20.2mb : 571k ha = 35.4b/ha. What is: 1) R yield of USDA 35.4 < of CONAB 38.8; 2) 571 - 369 = 202k ha of hidden R; 3) 571 - 400 (total R) = 171k ha of hidden R. Looks a bit strange... :) If to take AR yield 33.5 b/ha: 49.7mb : 33.5b/ha = 1484k ha, --> 2100 - 1484 = 616k ha for R and 20.2mb : 616k ha = 32.8b/ha vs 38.8b/ha of CONAB. And 616 - 369 = 247k ha, 616 - 400(total R) = 216k ha - of hidden R production, CONAB's mistake is 247/369 or 216/369 -> 59% - 67%. Most simple explanation would be that USDA adds young trees production but while new trees enter park, old trees leave it and loosing yiled, etc. Thus, if to assume that new trees are balanced by old trees, it looks strange... :)
If 2022 would be record 49.7mb AR, then 2023 would be 42mb AR. 42mb : 1530k ha = 27.5b/ha OFF cycle AR yield. 1 in 100 years drought has lasting effects, proven fact. Frost affected seriously about 200k ha, let's say 35% lost for production in 2022, 2023. 35% of 200k ha ->70k ha x 27.5b/ha = 1.925mb to deduct. Drought post effect on yield - 2% :) of 42mb = 840k b, expensive ferts + too much rain = 3% -> 1.26mb, in total roughly 4mb. 42mb - 4mb = 38mb AR (CONAB 1st eval. 37.4mb). 3% for ferts and rains can become 5 -7 % easy...
All doesn't mean much until Brazil is able to export about 40mb. We'll see ... :)
The line of reasoning and calculations may be correct, but we need to wait for the next USDA report in Jun23.
importers bid to June to dec are -10 through -20 for mtgb gc, some exporter are selling I wanna see when these exporters going broke the huge default thats gonna have. Brazilians farmers dont sell cheap coffee any more. Regular prices to export coffee is +5 and +15. Still hard to make money
Will they become collectors ? Remember that consumption/demand is what sets the price.
do you stop drinking coffee to save money or do you stop going out rest/bar and having beer?
Stocks will be consumed first and then new imports will be made. The producers not sell, until stocks in importing countries reached critical levels? Difficultly.
What is happening?
rumors of peace on Ukraine giving some boost on global markets lol
closing 1 short, back to 4 longs.
Why am I long ZW instead of KC? Internal destructive attitude?
Quite impossible to take a small loss in wheat and jump ship chasing coffee. Lol.
time to start adding shorts again soon
I know it looks bullish.. but my intuition says down..
agree with that hopefully will flush lower than 178,40
Nice drop on ICE: 11k. Backwardation has also been growing in recent days.
CECAFE +138k bags today of new Certs.
@ShorDude, iI checked the data between GCA and Brazilian Exports from Jan19 to Feb23, correlating them month by month, with 1 month delay for GCA, with 2 months delay for GCA and the Statistical Correlation Coefficient (R), 0.28 in the best case, between them is extremely low in all cases .
In the last 5 years, GCA Stocks increased from April to July. Let's follow this year, if there will be a repeat
In the last 5 years we did not have so big drops in at he beginning of the year. Especially in February... Let's see what is coming.
look for mar19, jan/feb//mar of 2020 and mar21 numbers of stocks.
Looks bullish AF.
Not at all !
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