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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
196.17
+0.97(+0.50%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Be careful,,,, this market is a manipulation for a big squeeze on March position..nothing to do with rains/frosts in Brazil ot shortage,..
I’d like to hear the reason, if you don’t mind.
Be patient...
I am patient, but if you could elaborate, I’d love to hear it…
Will sell@ 244
too hard to resist temptation with these crazy high prices
done
I'll close my positions @ 233.80
USDA data, 56.3 million confirm -20%, 21/22 crop, market response immediately as of yesterday
Do not agree. They do not change this number from last report. Everyone knows that real number were closer to 46mln
Just look at the time (11/22/21 - yesterday) the USDA released the news and the time the market hits 228.10 and continually reverses. This is fact, not theory.
On and off cycles are day and night for the productivity of the tree, and not all Brazil was hit by the frost. But 12-15 mil bags of shortage for 21-22 crop BRL (in comparison with 19-20 - both on season crops for KC) is ... more than enough to make new ATH, but may be just a bit later. :)
KC crop
Is there anyone who still thinks that the 2022 crop is going to be good in Brazil?
ECOM and Rabobank ;)
I rolled on the floor laughing when i saw RABOBANKS reports, and so did all the farmers, coffee traders & coffee companies that i know.R
Robusta crop is looking good, by the way. Arabica you can count that the break will be around 60%.
I bet a dime on 239 highest point for a while….good luck anyway to brave bulls
Really?
What is the issue, anyway, are your 'shorts' all wet?Please retreat into your bear cave.
u r too close to the sun be careful not to b burned lol
If I remember correctly, 20-21 KC BRL (off season) crop was projected to be about 33-35mil bags and ended up being about 30 -31 mil bags due to... one of a kind drought. Thus, average reduction in comparison with projection was about 10% what is very reasonable number. Last on season 19-20 KC crop was considered to be about 50 mil bags. Drought, to the extent of its 20-21 version (once in 100 years), is most likely over for Brazil (very rarely such events repeat themselves).
Added a long, 236
Good day. Probability of Breaking 23620 will probably give another long Bull towards 25500.
These numbers interestingly are are close to the long term average trend line
*BRAZIL WATCH: Growing consensus from experts across Brazil's frost & drought affected coffee regions over last week ALL agree fruit set from 3rd and main flowering has been well below even most pessimistic expectations and increasingly likely 2022 crop will be smaller than 2021.
As many others. Now big disappointment I
What is your big disappointment about?
 Not mine, flowering failure is disappointment for many bears. Bears were selling flower photos.
well, how you consider todays move below 230 and the return higher? looks like double bottom or retesting or anything to you or should we still expect weekness (this week, not longterm).
forming a desc tri on 4h chart, unless 235 broken, it can retrace back to fibo 223-224 and then up again imo.
ICE -22k bags. Again
Jan 2020 was above 2mln. Check again. 15th Jan 2020 2.090.000bags. still don't know why Jan 2020 is important?
Send link, I’m seeing 1.638.000 on that date. The point is if it’s 1.638, it’s not far from 1.500 in a difficult time, i.e. - stocks basically unchanged.
Are you sure that you are talking about 2020? January 2020 above 2mln bags, January 2021 1.6mln bags. Sheets directly from ICE
USDA Semi-annual ==> Brazil 21/22 =56.3 M bags
20/21 = 69.9 and 21/22 = 56.3
Wasn't it 20/21 56 million?
They did not make any adjustment from last report. Weird. They fight against inflation I guess.
Someone big doing profit taking on a long Coffee Break
This also looks like it occured on Thursday
(desculpas) This does not look like prodit taking
http://www.spilling-the-beans.net/exclusive-the-big-brazil-frost-and-why-the-world-is-running-out-of-coffee/
Monday expected trading range 281.11-238.23
Kudos ;)
That was cool!
🎯
I was reading comments related to the some defaults on the deliveries - the main point was, that a lot of defaults were not due to the lack of beans but due to the possibility to sell it now for much higher price. It's all speculation, but feels to be true in many cases. If to believe into opening stocks at origins, GCA and european stocks, the boiling point should come around may 22, etc. As MGom pointed out earlier, when market moves about 10c a day, very few farmers want to sell :). But those farmers may have some beans :), in fact, and so, to start selling at any time they'll feel right.
Drought affected 2021 crop heavily.
My point was that usually farmers don't sell/presell 100% harvest at once. Some famers keep some stocks to sell on later date ... :)
How can you even come close to selling 50% of your crop if you do not have an idea of what your total production will be?Besides, normally one averages out over 4 to 6 sales per annum.
USDA is based on the info it sources from local sources. Besides official sources, they also use not that official sources when official ones fail to deliver or they have a reasonable doubt. The best and most safe approach seems to be to follow the range of projected shortage in relation to previous on season crop. That range looks like 10mil - 15mil bags in the absence of new disaster, that for sure may happen but is not there yet :). 15mil bags shortage is ... a lot :), and not whole Brazil was hit, and the part that was hit, for sure, was not hit equally for every local area. Thus, 12 mil may be kind of reasonable figure until the later date.
What IF 2022 crop will be only the same size as 2021 or only slightly bigger?
In USDA reports always everything is great. Next crop is record or at least bumper one. These same story was about 2021 crop. Do you still believe them?
The market believes. That's enough.
It seems that meybe not anymore. For Rabobank and ECOM lost their reputation.
KC can go few more cents and pull back, or 20c and pull back, or 40c and pull back , etc - nobody knows that for sure. But the way the chart looks, and the levels that popular indicators reached, all that tells that risk both sides is very real. :)
On the other side the specs and producers positions are growing, and the more specs position grows from current level - more vulnerable it becomes. Vulnerable here means, first of all, that just a "very few" contracts may create a real drop. Not agitating for short or long (personal matter) but caution seems to be reasonable at current level. Also, it looks that many got comfortable to believe in the "fair KC price" thesis in current conditions, what is not the reality. "Fair" KC futures price on a daily basis is the range between open and close figures and this is it. If tomorrow price will be 20c lower than today it's gonna be a fair price still :).
I believe :) :) :) that during this cycle we'll see new ATH and it's gonna touch $4. All the fundamentals as climatic cycle, input and services costs, instability, rising consumption, logistical issues are on the bulls side. But it is very hard to believe that this move will happen in one straight line - usually, it is not what happens. And it is important to remeber that all the factors are already in the market. December will give more light about bean formation in BRL but currently nobody expects to see the miracle (or almost nobody)...
Not all. Last official forecasts about 2022 were good. From Rabobank and ECOM. Some were selling market after these reports
Mercury KG claims to be a coffee producer in another country, outside of Brazil, constantly posting chaos in coffee production in Brazil. Watching from your cabin, KC prices increase. He accuses some operators of not having a soul, including me, I haven't forgotten. Now he takes advantage of the chaos of some Brazilian producers and continues to desire chaos, a good example. A saint with a pure soul.
Zdeněk Večerka With everything negative in Brazil, you expect a bearish condition? Really? This is not a technical market at this point, it may have been in the past and will be in the future, but here fundamentals rule. Tighter global coffee supplies have sparked fund-buying. You think they will sell off tomorrow, and you really believe that?
Tomorrow there may be more development scenarios, we have seen pullback and return to 23.6 and more, yes it will grow
Can anyone explain to me the relationship between KC and ICE Stocks?
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