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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
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KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
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200.33
-1.12(-0.56%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

There are no problems in the production of coffee, and the frost has had a very limited effect, the drought has ended, and the rains are higher than their annual average, and it was assumed that prices would not reach these levels, but for speculation its provisions, what we will see now is a gradual decline in coffee prices until the month of 6/2022. The prices have reached what Below 160 especially when e report is scheduled for publication June 23, 2022 and willinclude the 2022/23 forecast
From bearish USDA report: Arabica production remains forecast at 35.0 million bags, down 14.7 million from the previous harvest due to a combination of factors.  The majority of producing areas were in the off‐year of the biennial production cycle, resulting in lower output.   Persistent drought and high temperatures in major growing regions in the last half of 2020 as well as the beginning of 2021 adversely affected blossoming and fruit development, lowering yields further.   There were also reports that many growers pruned their trees at above‐average rates in response to last year’s record on‐year crop.
Is not good, if lost 229.25
What do u expect about coffee? Is it in downside trend?
upside trend but now a correction downside loading.
does anyone know why the usda report is not published yet?
sorry found it, missed that one :-)
can you provide a link?
Opened a short on open.... 232.5
As Hedge or did you close your longs also?
Gap down?
welcome back crappy roaster beware babau omicron will eat you as soon as you expect it lol
direction is not na issue..your joker predictions are ...punk
boogeyman omicron will lead you in the right (exit) direction lol
$USDBRL symmetrical triangle breakout can become the trade of 2022 in #FX. Bearish impact on coffee imo
3) Perspective. Ongoing weather problems confirm the fact of not cooperative cycle. The cycle is far from being over and more surprises are ahead. Any sizeable correction will be very healthy for the bulls. If correction into 160 area will occure, it may mark another great entry point for long term trade. Correction can be smaller and shorter, of course. Besides technicals, bulls have to monitor ICE stocks and export numbers. Those are most true numbers in the game. They don't lie.
Thus, price has risen from 90c to 170c on rising production/consumption ratio, constantly rising stocks, constantly rising acreage, etc. Everything is possible, but usually, the explanation is more primitive.
ICO gives production ratio A/(A+R) around 59%. Thus, world stocks of A for J1 2022 should be 59% of 61mb = 36mb. If we'll consider same ratio for A consumption as for production, 59% of 165mb is 97.35 mb of A, what is roughly 8.11mb A consumption a month. 36 : 8.10 = 4.5 months coverage.
In 2017 production was about consumption (my average) and the stocks 32. Thus, for J1 2018 we have stocks of 32. Then stocks: 2018 175 - 165 + 32 = 42 for J1 2019; 169-163+42=48 for J1 2020; 175-164+48=59 for J1 2021; 167-165+59 = 61 mb - there are gonna be stocks for J1, 2022. 61mb are not 30mb and 61mb are roughly 35% of world production. Numbers are conflicting...
I do not pretend it is high end evaluation. I'll take the production/consumption numbers from USDA chart. Averaged/rounded they give surplus of 34mb. These bags have to be added to the stocks at some point, isn't it ?
If not, the explanation of where they went has to be provided.
All this has nothing to do with entry/exit point :) :) :).
2021/22 Coffee Overview section of Dec 17th USDA report offers following data for A+R (rounded by me):W prod: 2016 - 160, 2017- 160, 2018 -175, 2019 - 169, 2020 - 175, 2021 - 167;W cons: 2016 - 155, 2017 - 160, 2018 - 165, 2019 - 163, 2020 - 164; 2021 - 165;W stocks: 2016 - 36, 2017 - 32, 2018 - 37, 2019 - 36, 2020 - 36, 2021 - 30.Export numbers are not needed for current example.
For simplicity/clarity we'll use four parameters defined as: W calendar year production, J1 - D31; W calendar year consumption, J1 - D31; W calendar year exports from producing countries, J1 - D31; W stocks for J1 of each calendar year. We'll adjust crop years to calendar years. Very raw data makes it no diffeerence.
While analysing, the one has to be sure that same definitions and rules are used within the field of analysis. Otherwise the analysis itself may have a little sense. The fact that result is often seriously revised post-factum shouldn't be forgotten.Fine data requires fine analysis and raw data doesn’t. Fine analysis is not mathematically possible for raw data. Fine analysis, applied to the data with high degree of initial incorrectness, doesn't make the result more solid.
2). USDA report of Dec 17.The goal of USDA is to support US industries by all available data. Main guidelines: use most proven facts and don't seed the panic. With the exception of Hawaii, real big ones are importing, processing and retail industries. The goal defines the strategy. USDA is solid/respectful but it has clear objectives. As ICO, CONAB and others do.Should it be strange? No, it shouldn’t.
Thus, monthly chart wise, the correction from current levels would be nothing strange, it may bring to 160 area easy and it may take about a year also easy.
KC can jump up another 30c from here but potential downside is getting bigger also. Anyone who still holds the position has to consider the rsik, and building a new position at current levels means poor R/R basing on current chart structure. Correction into 160 area would be just 61.8 FIb retracement and it may take about a year. (We're talking monthly chart and not about intraday/week trading.)
1). Monthly chart. Anybody, who believes that 2019 low marked the beginning of a new cycle has to give that cycle 6 - 10 years to complete. Current weather cycle covers those 6 - 10 years OK. A look at current monthly chart gives following clues: 1) many metrics are overstreched; 2) specs are very long; 3) time wise current advance correlates with a previous one; 4) price reconnection with 9, 10,.., 20 MA is about due; 5) correction may be around the corner.
Few comments before X-mass. Re: 1) current chart status, 2) Dec 17 USDA report, 3) perspective. it's not to influence to buy or sell but to share some thoughts only. Personally, I believe into new ATH coming but not before a real correction will take place. As a catalyst for that new ATH I view a weather disaster(s) that current weather cycle will provide with a pleasure at due time.
why i read from usda and they said they will be published on June 21th, due to the holiday
Sell! It is that simple now! The huge tidal wave of coffee crops in Mexico and central america is about to drop in about another 4 - 6 weeks!
??? central america is peanuts
More like 12 weeks. Here we finish picking until end of March, so keep dreaming about tidal waves.You actually think it is all peanuts and picked in 1 week? Really?
June report was estimated total export 136m bags and December report estimation 139 that means increasing by 3m bags not shorting
Regarding consumption. I don't think it's right numbers. It's much less.
Global production at the end of the year reached 168 million bags with drought and frost. This means that the next crop will be historical in production. I expect it to reach 190-195 million bags because Brazil will add 300,000 hectares this year, their production is about ten million bags
Faroutwhere did you read this news about 300000 new hectares ?
Reports is bearish but... Frost has no impact on 2021 production but will be on 2022. This is clearly stated even in USDA report. Only one thing which do not sum up. How while production surplus they predict 8mln bags drop in world coffee stocks?
please share the link for report
The USDA thus now estimates a surplus in world supply of 2,612 million bags in relation to consumption. In June, he estimated a deficit of 132,000 bags.
i can't find the report they said due to holiday, they are published on June 21
* tank ship
Thanks Mgom. I didn't find yesterday's report. Could you send me the link?
short crpto..... I dont trade it but easy money....
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