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US Sugar No11 Futures - Oct 14 (SBV4)

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16.63 -0.32    (-1.89%)
29/07 - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Commodity
Group: Agriculture
Unit: 1 Pound

  • Prev. Close: 16.63
  • Open: 16.92
  • Day's Range: 16.61 - 16.93
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US Sugar No11 16.63 -0.32 (-1.89%)
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US Sugar No11 Overview

Prev. Close16.63
MonthOct 14
Tick Size0.0001
Contract Size112,000 Lbs.
Tick Value11.2
Day's Range16.61 - 16.93
Settlement TypePhysical
Base SymbolSB
52 wk Range14.71 - 20.16
1-Year Return-1.92%

US Sugar No11 News & Analysis

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US Sugar No11
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Latest US Sugar No11 Comments

mark w
mark w Jul 29, 2014 06:39PM GMT
Strong movement down on the daily, indicative of a 3rd wave (price currently 16.62). It will be interesting to see where it finds a floor and bounces. After which, hopefully we can look forward to a fifth and final wave down to end consolidation and the resumption of bullishness?. Note: the dollar has gained strength lately, pressurizing markets.

mark w
mark w Jul 29, 2014 08:11AM GMT
if price turns up from here (16.87), expect it to top 17.43 before resuming downwards movement. Otherwise next target (below 16.87) is 16,76 (fib 50%).

Joakim Ha
Joakim Ha Jul 24, 2014 12:44PM GMT
Thanks Mark !. . Fundamentaly sugar is bearish and industry struggling with low profitability in Brazil and consolidates slowly, incoming rains higher than usually may take crushing down and. price shortly up. Can you provide a technichal view with historichal checks for MA&EMA.. Try to go long as market expect lower prices and has stoploss @ 16.86.. Rgds/Joakim
mark w
mark w Jul 24, 2014 01:29PM GMT
Hi Joakim, am an Elliott Wave technician. EW believes the main impetus for any market is investor sentiment en mass - i.e. human crowd emotions, like shoal of fish, which has its own recognizable patterns of behaviour and not entirely dependent on real world events. All EW technicians do is look for recognizable patterns in price. As such my language is EW, whether historical or current. The language of historical MA/EMA is more your speak than mine so apologies but am unable to assist further. . My EW historical perspective is that negative sentiment reached an extreme at 14.70 and turned positive. It climbed in a predictable pattern of 5 waves and will now countertrend in a pattern of likely 3 waves to fib 61.8% at 16.30 aprox? If I see any deviation from that larger pattern I will publish. The smaller and varied patterns taking place are not important to me as I stand aside and wait for the predicted return to bullishness. After which one can remain invested for a longer period. Short term trades require much observation and analysis and apologies, but I am lazy. Warm regards, Mark
Joakim Ha
Joakim Ha Jul 24, 2014 02:25PM GMT
OK Mark !. . Yes agreed, more laidback to have a longterm view, but still issue remains. when is this market ready for a recovery ?. Looks loke politics also is a major part of the game, oil versus ethanol and assistance to farmers from governemt etc. . Interesting to follow :) bur certanly requires patience !. //J
mark w
mark w Jul 24, 2014 05:03PM GMT
Hi Joakim, EW uses fibonacci relationships between time to rise and time to fall. Was about 21 or 20 weeks rising and so far only 5 weeks falling, which is very short time and only about 25% (when 0.682% would be a more normal time frame at nearly 14 weeks). So realistically, probably another few weeks if not a couple of months before impulsive bullishness returns? - Given price has retraced between 38.2% and 50% so far, we may only be seeing the ending phase of an 'a' wave in an 'a', 'b', 'c' correction (down, up, down), where 'b' will take price higher, perhaps to the 18.00 area, before the correction finally heads down to end lower. Certainly there could soon be reason to go long for a week or two if the bearishness tapers off? Personally am keeping my eye on fib 50% @ 16.76 for a possible turn. But is not impossible for sentiment to carry us lower and then to return to bullishness in short term, just statistically unlikely. Ultimately is all a gamble with 'indicators' and 'gut feelings' to rely on. Or fundamentals if you prefer, but mostly they appear just as unreliable as other methods. Best wishes, Mark
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