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US Soybeans Futures - Nov 14 (ZSX4)

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978.38 -15.02    (-1.51%)
24/10 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Commodity
Group: Agriculture
Unit: 1 Bushel

  • Prev. Close: 993.40
  • Open: 991.75
  • Day's Range: 976.88 - 1,001.88
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US Soybeans 978.38 -15.02 (-1.51%)
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US Soybeans Discussions

US Soybeans
 
 
 
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John Smith
John Smith Oct 24, 2014 01:24PM GMT
Everyone why did the market go up? Because the farmers control the market in a round about way. "Bankers" that have been around know once the market gets to a certain lower point it results in the farmer not willing/able to spend big money on inputs to produce Big yields. Again the risk of spending big money to record yields isnt worth it if the crop isn't worth 12 or more. The other way is contrary to what some believe Farmers have built a ton of storage the last few years so they do no necessarily have to sell at harvest.

Roman Kraus
Roman Kraus Oct 24, 2014 12:27PM GMT
jorgito how does it look in brazil and argentina? do you have some info or ideas? thx
Jorgito Pocho
Jorgito Pocho Oct 24, 2014 02:23PM GMT
Well I´ll give you my own oppinion. This rally it wasnt expected, most of us were expected a downdtrend including funds and bankers. But we have a situation with meal in USA , look that the meal market is still inverted (march is cheaper than december) if you look the graphic of meal, it started to rebound stronger than beans. This situation was a generator of a rally in beans and as it caught unprepeared to all specs and funds that were playing shorts , and generate a very big short covering that put the price near 1000. But i really think that this is a bubble, fundamentals are still bearish.
Jorgito Pocho
Jorgito Pocho Oct 24, 2014 02:25PM GMT
The stock of beans in USA will be the bigest since 2007 when price were at 700. The stock in the world is the biggest, and finally and responding to your answer in argentina, uruguay and paraguay the weather is like perfect for corn and beans, and in brasil the planting was delated but is raining now and you could see the outlook of more rains. Finally for the whole south america, is developing an event called "el niño" that generates more rain and that means more rains. Another thing, yesterday the exports of meal were nothing (34.000 tons) when market expected 150 to 250.000. What will happen when crushers fill the pipeline?
Roman Kraus
Roman Kraus Oct 24, 2014 03:17PM GMT
thx jorgito
Jorgito Pocho
Jorgito Pocho Oct 24, 2014 05:29PM GMT
OK and remember market can be irrational more time than you can be solvent. Market can broke you even you have the reason. good luck
Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 25, 2014 02:10PM GMT
Jorgito,every commodity has its floor price, below this floor price farmers wont sell. Take soybean as example,900 is floor price for farmers, below that they wont sell, market makers or banker can force the price down to 800 only when they see too many long positions in the market. If you dont have enough holding power, your contracts will be forced sell. This created a selling mechanism which does not involved farmers' as the selling parties.I am waiting for that moment to pick up cheap stuff.

Roman Kraus
Roman Kraus Oct 24, 2014 12:16PM GMT
we should be under resistance form 2008, 2009 and 2010... but i dont know if it have any impact if this is regular bull trend :-/

Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 24, 2014 04:29AM GMT
I have 1 interesting objective question for all of us to answer. Question : What made the banker not afraid of farmers dumping their stocks at this current price, say 1000 ? (a) because it is still below farmers' costing price (b) the yield would be lowered by 5-10% projected by the Wasde report in October (c) Too many short positions in the market,the banker wants to force them to cut loss (e) This banker is super-hyper giant,its capital is huge enough to absorb all selling pressure from farmers and short sellers .
Roman Kraus
Roman Kraus Oct 24, 2014 11:31AM GMT
reason could also be that harvest is delayed a lot, and exports are huge... so bankers and farmers could be using time in their favour to push the price higher...
Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 24, 2014 12:31PM GMT
Roman, there are 53% being harvested,that means 2.0 billions bushels in the storage. If farmers were to sell, can banker hold ? Question is why should banker push up the price for farmers to sell at a higher price,? banker could have waited for a certain period to allow the price to drop by itself and pick up slowly. Everybody knows that the sentiment was bad for soybean, banker can buy 940 at any time..
Roman Kraus
Roman Kraus Oct 24, 2014 12:36PM GMT
yeah but on the paper the harvest is beyond the average number. so on the paper it looks bad. i got that with a lot of beans the harvest is slower and result is the or better as usual... but on the paper it looks bad... now i am just wondering if this is the ceiling and they will get rid of it or not...

Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 24, 2014 04:15AM GMT
OK, guys, put aside the argument of who control the market, John will you make profit by selling at 970 ?
John Smith
John Smith Oct 24, 2014 04:22AM GMT
A very conservative farmer who spent very little on the inputs who owns the farm ground will make a profit. However one who spent a lot on inputs who rents his farm ground will not make a profit
Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 24, 2014 04:47AM GMT
So, John, am I right to say that this price 970 is around the cost margin ?
John Smith
John Smith Oct 24, 2014 01:31PM GMT
THink of it this way Goldstein and others.... Take Baseball. The hitter who simply trys to get on base every time... gets on base more often. But the hitter who swings for the fence every time may hit more home runs but also strikes out a lot more. Again no different with Farming. The farmer who swings for the fences every time spending big money on inputs ends up striking out and losing money a lot more times then the farmer who simply tries to grow a decent crop without spending big money on inputs.

John Smith
John Smith Oct 24, 2014 12:12AM GMT
Wow Goldstein really knew what he was talking about! Hey guys this is a reason why a farmer knows more and has more control of the market then "bankers" investors and guys like Goldstein
Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 24, 2014 12:25AM GMT
John , you may celebrate now, but have you sold some of your stocks already ?
Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 24, 2014 12:28AM GMT
Farmers has no control of market,only the banker do.
John Smith
John Smith Oct 24, 2014 12:58AM GMT
wisdom... are you kidding me? Think about it. If the "bankers" are not having the market pay enough what goes on? 1. The farmer locks the soybeans in storage and doesnt sell until they are higher 2. The farmer decides to plant something else on his ground 3. The farmer puts less in fertilizer and care into his soybeans which decreases yields. So with that being said do you still believe the "banker" controls the market? My "stock" was sold some time ago when it was higher yet
Matt Uptin
Matt Uptin Oct 24, 2014 01:06AM GMT
John... so what are you thoughts going forward? I am holding Soy/Wheat & have for awhile... nice to see it go up!!!
John Smith
John Smith Oct 24, 2014 01:25AM GMT
I think 9's are going to be the "normal" Unless 1. Poor weather in South America occurs 2. N. American farmers continue to have harvest delays. Any of this occurs... what will occur is 10's becoming the new normal. 8's will only occur if near perfect brazil weather occurs and the harvest in north america ends up being perfect from this point fwd... that being said High 8's would be where they would settle
Show more replies (18)

g0ku san
g0ku san Oct 23, 2014 05:23PM GMT
Be lucky enough to see any shorts in near future

g0ku san
g0ku san Oct 23, 2014 05:00PM GMT
Goldstein what do you suggest now?

g0ku san
g0ku san Oct 23, 2014 04:56PM GMT
No more. Shorts I guess

g0ku san
g0ku san Oct 23, 2014 04:20PM GMT
0000000
Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 23, 2014 10:48PM GMT
If it is a 5th wave, the market may consolidate at any time. BUT.... if it is the 3rd wave of the major 3rd wave........ hmm .....the minimum target is 1020 !!! .... there may be a gap up when Asia market opens, chance of going down to 904 is 1 % , not to mention about 800, do you agree now ? Mr Goldstein.
g0ku san
g0ku san Oct 23, 2014 11:23PM GMT
lol thank god i closed my short in time haha,China was the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans last week taking 62.5 million bushels, so I guess they have more space to store lol
Enlighwisdom Wisdom
Enlighwisdom Wisdom Oct 23, 2014 11:59PM GMT
If no gap up in Asia open, most likely is 5th wave, the market may come down at any time.
 
 
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