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US Soybeans Futures - Jan 17 (ZSF7)

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1,031.62 +2.22    +0.22%
02/12 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Commodity
Group: Agriculture
Unit: 1 Bushel

  • Prev. Close: 1,031.62
  • Open: 1,033.62
  • Day's Range: 1,026.62 - 1,037.50
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US Soybeans 1,031.62 +2.22 +0.22%

US Soybeans Discussions

 
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All Comments (1488)
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden 7 hours ago
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Measured short entry for today is 1035(.25, .50, .75), I generally incorporate a 1 point cushion on either side. SL 5 points above this. This is based on the Square of Nine tool by W.D. Gann...Soybeans move on a 30 degrees kick back to they're trending extreme in the greater % of time. It also depends on what price range they're working in...prices much higher create wider and quicker fluctuations which call for greater degrees. What I mean by this is we have been in the immediate trending down the last few days. Thursdays low of 1022.25 you would use as your anchor point for measuring in the Square of Nine calculator, 30 degrees up from 1022.25 you arrive at 1040. From there you create a zone around that number as you can only be so precise so you'd say the shorting level = 1039-1041...on here I said 1040-42 due to additional things I saw. That tool alone though gave the 1040. Through extensive backtesting the tool has shown that 5 full points past the primary measurement the
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden 7 hours ago
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the trade is dead and no longer "correct", it will move to the next zone. The tool has shown that it has greatest accuracy within a 3 pt range. Meaning from the exact measured entry, the highest % of the times, Soybeans will not pass the entry level by even 3 full points.......There's also a bumper on this I've found where the Soybeans cannot actually make to the exact measured entry, which is why I've given it s a 1 pt cushion on either side.... With the high on Friday being 1037.75 and the measured short entry given for today at 1035, one would be able to play an even tighter stop loss just above Friday's HOD......this is no suggestion, just sharing my thoughts and possible actions. My main trade I'm looking to making this week on Soybeans will be on Tuesday if we arrive at 1020....from there I will start my buying.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden 7 hours ago
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Ok so to take another step forward I pull up the 4hr to review old bottom pivots on this move down so far and will also look at closing/opening price on pivoting bars and markets tend to make their new bottom/tops not only just on old bottoms and tops but on old opening/closing prices of important price bars. S&P500 and CL is actually extremely accurate on this method alone, pivoting on old opening/closing price levels of importance...anyways, Soybeans 4hr chart shows a really strong pivot bottom bar at 1036.75. Then can pull up hourly and see a consolidation area from 1034-1040 with no hour closing below 1036.50...more hits on 1036 area with a pivot bottom in front of the 1035 entry at 1034.50...so I'm seeing strength here. Anyways...I don't know why I'm posting all this, I guess there seems to be some level of interest so I just figured I would post a little on some of the steps I take before taking a trade...
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden 7 hours ago
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** TYPO ** "Thursdays low of 1022.25 you would use as your anchor point for measuring in the Square of Nine calculator, 30 degrees up from 1022.25 you arrive at 1040" Apologies...I meant to say WEDNESDAY'S low of 1031.25,....30 degrees above this = 1040. Had the day's mixed up.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 03, 2016 2:47PM GMT
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Brent...the closing price isn't weak at all in my mind's view. You'll see in my post lower down the page that my key support zone is roughly 1018-1024, and with closes above them Soybeans are still incredibly strong. You'll see that the total VOLUME OF SALES for Friday was only 77k. So this is what I have brought up before, the issue of decreased Volume of Sales, it's an indication that the current direction is losing power(when we're speaking of moving down). Right now a good day for Soybeans is 140k ++, below 130k the move starts to fade off...the swings down have been 130k down to 70k, with 70k coming in before pop back up. So the problem now for highers prices is that it's going to go back up until the buyers come back in. The dramatic drop in volume as we approach key supports just further supports the theory in higher prices but in time, maybe not for another week or two. So, this is not "SELL OFF" more of a healthy pullback due to lack of buyers, not increased sellers.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 03, 2016 2:52PM GMT
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I just sat down at my desk, about to prep this week...I decided it'd be much more helpful/easier to supply my personal charts with my words. Explaining this stuff without pictures can be like reviewing a very detailed math equation without proper reference points, just doesn't really hit home or make sense....so I'm gonna get all my Soybean stuff done this morning for the week/month ahead and I'll upload all my charts, just look in my profile to get to them if you'd like. But continued closes above 1018+, Beans quite strong.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 03, 2016 5:53PM GMT
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Ok so this is my outlook. Buying zone is 1015-1020. Below this we will slip to old closes at 1011 but would imagine at that point we'd head lower to the next Value Zone which is at 990-1000. Possible we close the gap at 993.75 at that point. It's my belief is that at this time it's the least likely of the two Value Zones to become our next bottoming level, 990-1000 that is.. We did arrive at an extremely powerful zone when reaching 1060-1070 so a pullback is not in anyway unexpected. Cyclically December is a possible top month for Beans before making a pullback into 2017 which we then run back up from. With that said, we'd need to break above 1065 as that was November's high and not December's so it would strengthen the case Beans have some more left int them. I'll be watching and waiting Volume this week. Continued closes above 1020 or even 1026 are a sign a strength. Closing below 1018 would be weak to me. Slippage below these zones are of not much concern as long as the...
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 03, 2016 6:08PM GMT
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closing price remains above 1018-1020. Charts can be found in my profile for reference. As I mentioned before volume was 77k on Friday which is fitting into the pattern of bottoming formation coming in. Ideally I'd like to see a somewhat flat week with price action no lower than 1015 and closes now lower than 1020'sh. I'd also like to see 70-90k volume days at these levels...for me this would be enough to start buying into the 1020 Zone and holding. WASDE is on Friday and is 1/2 year cycle from our June TOP. So...if we happen to up into WASDE I'd probably be looking to sell that. 1055.75 - 1056.00 would be the selling level for myself so entry positions would be at 1054.50 and SL's tight only a few points above 1056, maybe 1059. Low end short entry would be 1046.75 but this would be a scenario I'd have to take measurements day of report........the 4/6 pattern is not in play ATM. Anways, this is my week's outline, simplified. Take care.
Terp Terp
Terp Dec 03, 2016 9:01PM GMT
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Thats some impressive analysis
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden 7 hours ago
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Thanks, ungodly amount of time spent on my charts and review of historical price/time movement.
Onoshobishobi Ingelosi
Onoshobishobi Ingelosi Dec 02, 2016 6:35PM GMT
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MY OPINION: If this thing closes where it is right now, we're heading to 980 in less than a week. At some point, fundamentals should take over. Well...should. Who knows. I'm gonna eat some profit to establish peace of mind here and play both sides until an obvious direction is established. Maybe not the most profitable move, but what else is there to do?
mid west
mid west Dec 02, 2016 6:41PM GMT
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agree
Brent McClaran
Brent McClaran Dec 02, 2016 4:56PM GMT
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Looks like some accumulating going on for the next run
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 02, 2016 2:38PM GMT
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GLall on trades.. Leaving on Holiday rest of month.. gone surfing/fishing on door already... . You guys are great group bar non. Chances are (Fed) mine games working.. 1034.11 is 100 pts from lowest without impediment . only stop i have, changed to 1078. Hanks great guy, knows pivots. need help, i'm sure he will.... Have great Holiday!!!! GL.
Terp Terp
Terp Dec 02, 2016 3:13PM GMT
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Have fun out there! I'll be freezing here in the single digits.... so soak up some sun for me
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 02, 2016 5:56PM GMT
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Surfs up bruh!! lol man I wish this year was a vacay year :( I will be working straight through. Enjoy yourself. I managed to close all my USD positions at no loss, luckily, very frustrated I didn't keep my 101.8's...getting more acquainted with USD I suppose...anyways, take care. P.S. I help NO ONE muahaha lol....
Brent McClaran
Brent McClaran Dec 03, 2016 12:26AM GMT
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@Francisco D Anconia -what do you gather from the close today? I thought we would close above 1030....you thinking we drop further before go back up toward the 60's?
Brent McClaran
Brent McClaran Dec 02, 2016 2:24PM GMT
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Needing some 1060's in my life
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 02, 2016 2:49AM GMT
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nah. 27) 1 pt win .sell stop.might have to wait on 65 to buy again.. dollar too strong right now.
Ed Zak
Ed Zak Dec 01, 2016 7:07PM GMT
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Nice bounce for beans ...wish they would jump higher
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 01, 2016 6:54PM GMT
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cool.. you got it....
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 01, 2016 6:47PM GMT
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I bought on 1) hit 38.2 on button.. 2) 3 crows down so reversal friday or doji.. 3) monthly shows me upswing next couple days with 1064 being taken out.. also normal to get two high's/tops with doji in middle.. i'm now convinced we will hit 1100. after will be just scalps.
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 01, 2016 6:10PM GMT
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lol.. just bought multi lots up... gl see you later.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 01, 2016 6:02PM GMT
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Steve...one thing I do on perpetual swings is divide the current swing range as opposed to the high to low. I mean I do, but say you divide 934 - 1031 50% = 982.50 and on the January contract 50% = 985'6 can then further average the two figures to arrive at roughly 984.00. This was zone we could close below on last move down. Now I take 975.25 - 1065 and 50 % = 1020.125. Then I look to January's Extreme High(from June) which is 172.25 and it's Extreme Low 865.00 and 50% = 1023.50. From here we can again average the two figures. Old Swing Tops at 1020-1018 with closing prices at same levels make 1018-10124 incredible strong on my charts. Adding to this tomorrow will be the 4th Market Day down and Beans have proven to move in periods of 4's on reactionary moves, it's hard to see more down after today, maybe tomorrow a bit more then volume tapers off dramatically and they cannot slide much more...this weekend I will prepare everything and share all my measurementswouldlovetohearurs
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 01, 2016 5:25PM GMT
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lol.. confusing huh.. last thought if 1026.68 or 38% hold. we'll head up. and others will be hit at later time.
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 01, 2016 4:53PM GMT
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I think we will hi1013 area or 50% of this move .. Since this is 3 crows down or reversal. measured move from last 1/2 pullback to top, . measure from first drop bottom at top gives me 1007, however keep in mind. 1064.88- 61,8 and we have 1003 as possible bottom which . will reach in night action before reversing.
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 01, 2016 4:22PM GMT
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and in measured move, bottom should be 1007.78.. lets hope that doesn't happen.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 01, 2016 4:36PM GMT
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good lord...
Terp Terp
Terp Dec 01, 2016 4:38PM GMT
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whatcha seein
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 01, 2016 3:53PM GMT
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3 crows down.. candle sticking .. reverse tomorrow
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 01, 2016 2:47PM GMT
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Word...I woke up and traded EU Oil sesson...I don't even know why I'm awake right now. 1013 though? Hmm I haven't made any exact measurements on next accumulation zone so maybe...but loosely based on one of my trading strategies I'd be hard pressed to see below 18...word, I will look into that though....was figuring my next round of real buying orders would come next week.
Terp Terp
Terp Dec 01, 2016 3:15PM GMT
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I am still staying out until that weather prem is broken
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Dec 01, 2016 9:45AM GMT
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I may be wrong.. but I'de like to see 1013 before we head up.. Monthly setting up for nice run up agreed. But both weekly/monthly setting up. short to that area first. support. may take couple days, but heading up..
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 01, 2016 6:56AM GMT
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day trade...at this point I'm lookin to buy near the lows after US open..
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 01, 2016 1:12AM GMT
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buy buy buy
Brent McClaran
Brent McClaran Dec 01, 2016 1:30AM GMT
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To the moon??
Glenn Dutton
Glenn Dutton Dec 01, 2016 1:32AM GMT
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No
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 01, 2016 1:37AM GMT
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So many posts of mine disappear...Brent, 1040-42, above that it's a hold into USA and possible end of day. This is assuming my up into Friday scenario happens. Breaking 5 points below 1032.25 = This possibility is dead. and no moon right now for beans...need to come down more and accumulate for next leg up...top end is 1061 on Friday, be the next mega short into WASDE.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 01, 2016 1:40AM GMT
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20 minutes from now, 9PM eastern time = time when Beans pop off for night time trade. China :D They need that soy sauce!
Brent McClaran
Brent McClaran Dec 01, 2016 1:46AM GMT
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@Francisco D Anconia -I would be happy seeing beans back in the 40's.
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Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Nov 30, 2016 7:45PM GMT
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If I'm correct on the Dollars movement tomorrow it should get sold to bottom of range, may help to boost beans overnight. At this point though the upside is seemingly just a "hope" or wild possibility. Continued down side near term I would expect. While there is a setup I see possibly popping into Friday to top out at 1061, I'm not banking on that. Ya'll have a nice night.
Brent McClaran
Brent McClaran Nov 30, 2016 7:23PM GMT
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Well that was an exciting close :( Maybe we continue to go lower? I see the 1031 held again
Ed Zak
Ed Zak Nov 30, 2016 5:37PM GMT
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Heavy Soyb May calls in the money..dont see beans going to much farther south over the winter
Steve Zielinski
Steve Zielinski Nov 30, 2016 5:08PM GMT
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Hank does great job. . for me, I use fib numbers. 23.6/38.2/ 50//61.8/76.4. he might use 33 instead of 23. example. we hit 1064.88 without going back. to area.. I just used 23.6 and got 1041.28 it stop in that area yesterday. but if I used his 33.33. i would of gotten 1031.55 guess what, stop right on. so I learned something from him.. my extentions start at 76. area to 100... so you will always have trend in trend.. Maybe Hank can share more. * just * remember. only on tool. Many more.
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Dec 01, 2016 12:27AM GMT
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I responded to this and it somehow "disappeared"...basically ditto to you dude.
Brent McClaran
Brent McClaran Nov 30, 2016 3:44PM GMT
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About to get ugly or do we see a rebound?
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Nov 30, 2016 3:53PM GMT
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no ugly.
Brent McClaran
Brent McClaran Nov 30, 2016 3:54PM GMT
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@Francisco D Anconia -I hope not...would like to see an end of week run @ 1065 again
Francisco D Anconia
HankRearden Nov 30, 2016 3:58PM GMT
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ooo maybe, one avenue on my map...dunno though. 1031 strong today. I wanna see what happens there.
 
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