Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Those who read our Daily and follow us on the media know that we talk a lot about risk gauges.The big focus for me personally is the relationship between the S&P 500 and the long bonds...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

Buyers pushed up prices for most of the major asset classes last week. US bonds were the downside outliers, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (June 9).Government fixed-income markets...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

Thinking about the Treasury yield curve the night before the May ’23 nonfarm payroll report, eventually, the Treasury yield curve has to return to a positive slope, meaning that short-maturity...

I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had...

We have been vocal that long-term Treasury bonds are an excellent investment at current yield levels. However, timing the purchase of bonds will prove difficult as numerous headwinds may temporarily...

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

Trailing yields have recently increased for most of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns about the...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to...

Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flowsHow Monitoring Volatility Regimes Helps Anticipate Key Market Pivots through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for...

Junk bonds are high-risk, high-yield bonds issued by companies with lower credit ratings. These bonds are also known as speculative-grade bonds or high-yield bonds because they offer a higher rate of...

If you have been reading my public articles on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into...