Bonds Analysis & Opinion

I hadn’t looked at these charts in a while. Good GOD, interest rates have gone insane! And in case you think a Recession isn’t coming directly our way…………I...

2-year Treasury rates could be on their way to between 4% and 4.25% Fed monetary policy could be the main driver The 2-year appears to be breaking out from a technical standpoint Rates have been...

Stocks have been tumbling lately and several indexes are trading in oversold territory on a short-term basis. But, the bigger picture continues to be troubling. One trading ETF, or indicator, that...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says more “pain” is coming, and the Treasury market believes him. The clearest sign of confidence in the central banker’s advisory is the renewed...

We’re revisiting treasury bonds even though they were the subject of our previous post. The resistance in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) served well as a backstop...

On an intraday basis, equities reached multi-month highs on Thursday. All I can say is: bonds aren’t buying it. Just look at what’s going on with the high-yield world. Bearish engulfing...

After celebrating a brief “head and shoulders” bearish breakdown on the daily, the U.S 10-year Treasury yield returned back above the all important neckline (around 2.65%). This is...

While the Federal Reserve continues trying to rein in prices with its aggressive tightening – macro-speculators are busy focusing on the yield curve. Which is now signaling serious trouble ahead...

Avoiding another 75-basis-point hike in September looks tough Policymakers say focus should be on inflation, not recession Central banks, including the Fed, made mistakes that have led to...

The US 10-Year yield is balanced on long-term support. Is this because investors aren't afraid of inflation anymore and thus trust the Fed? Or there is another recession on the horizon? Time will...

German Bund yields holding on to last week’s gains confirm the market’s recessionary mood. We identify potential drivers for 10-year yields crossing below 1%. US data should add to the...

Treasury yields on the 10-year note are balancing on daily support, that is on the neckline of a bearish potential head & shoulders formation. In case of a break below, this would be good for...

One of the most important themes during the first half of 2022 is rising interest rates. With the Federal Reserve focused on stopping inflation, it’s a legitimate concern.But is there also a...

The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Does this simple model find traction if we...