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Bonds Analysis & Opinion

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Argentina: Redefining The Gears Of Default And Restructuring
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 - Sep 05, 2013

A lot has been happening of late in the matter of Argentine bonds. The bottom line is: Argentina continues to resist the prospect of having to pay the holdover bondholders. Since it continues its ...

 
Nationalbanken Preview And DKK Update‏
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 - Sep 04, 2013

EUR/DKK has moved to being relatively stable below but close to the central rate and August marked the seventh consecutive month without need for intervention from Danmarks Nationalbank to support ...

 
CGB: Negative Outlook
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 - Sep 04, 2013

Ten-Year Government of Canada Bond opened below 129.80 and broke 129.52/50 to reach 129.20. The bounce has taken us to resistance at 129.50/52 and could hold the topside but if we continue higher look...

 
Forget Syria...It's All About Interest Rates
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 - Sep 04, 2013

Most folks think it’s all about Syria at this point. I disagree; I think it’s all about interest rates. And the continued weakness of bonds, in the face of the completely-untapered $1 ...

 
CGB: High For The Day Possible
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 - Sep 03, 2013

Ten-Year Government of Canada Bond resistance at 130.41/46 for profit taking. A high for the day is possible but above here look for 130.55 and a selling opportunity with stops above 130.66. A break ...

 
CGB: Resistance At 130.41 For Profit Taking
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 - Sep 02, 2013

Ten-Year Government of Canada Bond resistance at 130.41/46 for profit taking. A high for the day is possible but above here look for 130.55 and a selling opportunity with stops above 130.66. A break ...

 
US 10 Year Rises On Fear Of Another War Looming
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 - Aug 28, 2013

The benchmark 10-Year Note has recorded the largest 3-day gain in over a year following fears that US will engage Syria via military action as soon as Thursday. Fear is certainly in the air, with US ...

 
Bond Yield Deviation: Countdown To QE Endgame Has Begun?
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 - Aug 28, 2013

The Federal Reserve’s annual conference at Jackson Hole came and went without any material statements on Fed policy. The notable absence of Fed Chairman Bernanke from the conference and the fact...

 
10 Year Gilt Outlook Remains Positive
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 - Aug 28, 2013

Gilts rocketed through 109.90 to reach 110.49. Today’s outlook remains positive but we need to tackle 110.55/60. If we can beat this tough obstacle we should be on the way to 110.89/99 and very ...

 
Bund: Targeting Strong Resistance At 141.10
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 - Aug 28, 2013

Bund beat 140.71/75 as we now look to target very strong resistance at 141.10/15. A high for the day is expected here. Exit longs and try shorts with stops above 141.25. Be ready then to buy in to ...

 
Bobl Getting Overbought
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 - Aug 28, 2013

Bobl beat 124.84/85 as expected and continued higher through 125.04 as we got to within a few ticks of the 125.20/22 target. We are getting overbought and should struggle here. A high for the day is ...

 
Schatz: Selling Opportunity
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 - Aug 28, 2013

Schatz beat 110.31 as predicted to reach the 110.37 target. As stated yesterday, we use this as a selling opportunity to exit longs and try shorts with stops above 110.39 for a move up to 110.42. We ...

 
The September Bund
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 - Aug 27, 2013

Daily Forecast -- August 27, 2013Bund beat 140.31/36 as we close in on the next target of 140.71/75. A break higher should then target very strong resistance at 141.10/15

 
Will Taper Talk Break The Long-Term Trend Line in Bonds?
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 - Aug 27, 2013

There has been a lot of ink spilled over the topic of whether or not the Fed will taper in September. It seems the consensus is for a $20 billion decrease in QE. I’m not completely sold that we will ...

 
The Fed’s Bubble Trouble
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 - Aug 26, 2013

The talk of the town at this past weekend’s Jackson Hole monetary policy conference was a paper presented by Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen on Friday. At the annual FRB-KC ...

 
Treasury Snapshot: Yields And 30-Year Fixed Mortgage At Interim Highs
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 - Aug 25, 2013

What's New: I've updated the charts below through Thursday's close. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.90%, a new interim closing high from its historic low of 1.43% on July 25th of last...

 
Chart Of The Day: Reversal In The Debt Complex
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 - Aug 25, 2013

Since establishing an interim top, this has been a one way trade as of the beginning of May where the long end and short end of the curve has each gotten hit. 30-yr bonds have depreciated 12%, 10-yr ...