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Bonds Analysis & Opinion

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Bonds: Something Wicked This Way Comes
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 - Mar 04, 2014

The bond market is in trouble. As we all know, the Federal Reserve has been the biggest driver of bonds since the financial crisis. The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to near zero, ...

 
US 10-Year Treasury Note Speculators Cut Bearish Positions
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 - Mar 03, 2014

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report Large Speculators bearish positions decline for 2nd straight week 10 Year Treasuries: Large futures market traders cut back on their overall bearish positions in the...

 
Where Bonds Could Find Resistance
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 - Mar 02, 2014

I continue to believe the bull market in bonds is over and these will trade lower over the coming years, however small rallies within that downtrend will appear from time to time. Should this continue...

 
Focus Denmark: Foreign Investors Hold 31.5% Of Government Bonds  
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 - Feb 28, 2014

In January, Danish investors net purchased foreign bonds, while foreign investors net purchased Danish shares and net sold Danish bonds. In particular, foreign investors net sold DKK-denominated ...

 
Bond Inflation Will Abate
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 - Feb 27, 2014

That's what the bond market is saying. The chart below shows the the CRB Index (an inflation measure) with the Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds (TIP) as the blue area. The TIP’s are the Bond market ...

 
US 10-Year Treasury Note Speculators Sharply Cut Bearish Positions
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 - Feb 24, 2014

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report Large Speculators bearish positions fall to lowest level since January 14th 10 Year Treasuries: Large futures market traders sharply decreased their overall ...

 
Schatz: Negative Double Top Expected
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 - Feb 20, 2014

Schatz resistance at 110.62/63 today then a selling opportunity at 100.65/66 with a negative double top expected.Immediate support is 110.57/56 but below 110.54 today risks a retest of good support ...

 
Bobl: Important Support Today
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 - Feb 20, 2014

Bobl managed to retest the 126.96/99 February highs, and then pull back sharply. This has left a negative double top pattern and could lead to a test of support at 126.65. Below 126.60 then sees this...

 
Bund: Could Retest 144.29
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 - Feb 20, 2014

Bund managed a break higher to 144.29. Immediate resistance at 144.00/02 but above here we could retest 144.29. A break higher today is certainly possible and should target the 144.55/57 February ...

 
Gilts: Daily Chart Positive
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 - Feb 20, 2014

Gilts got very close to our target of 110.70 and topped at 110.66. We backed away quite sharply but met support at 110.01/98 which should hold the downside today. However, if we continue lower look ...

 
Index Linked Report: Swedish BEI Trading Higher Than Peers  
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 - Feb 20, 2014

It is time for the first tap auction in the SGBi3109 since it was introduced a few weeks ago. Swedish BEIs have been trading higher than European peers (Germany) but after the CPI data release ...

 
2 Assets In Simultaneous Breakout: What's it Mean?
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 - Feb 19, 2014

How does the old saying go; 'Don't judge a book by its cover'? These patterns reflect that the 10-year yield and Commodities Index (CRB) are both pushing a little higher, above resistance lines. Does...

 
Focus Sweden: Kommuninvest To Introduce New Loan  
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 - Feb 19, 2014

Starting on Wednesday, February 19th (depending on market conditions), Kommuninvest will introduce a new loan (SE0005705621) matching SGB1047 and maturing on 1 December 2020. The coupon rate is set at...

 
Treasury Flows At 4-Year Lows
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 - Feb 18, 2014

Talking Points US Net Long-term TIC Flows (DEC) (prior rev. -$28.0) (survey $30.0B) ACTUAL: -$45.9B US Total Net TIC Flows (DEC) (prior rev. -$13B) ACTUAL: -$119.6B Data indicates some of the ...

 
US 10-Year Treasury Note Speculators Added Bearish Positions
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 - Feb 17, 2014

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report Large Speculators positions continue to be at most bearish level since December 31st 10-Year Treasuries: Large futures market traders added to their overall bearish...

 
Are The Bears Awakening?
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 - Feb 12, 2014

In early 2007 the Fed Stress index was low and the high yields adjusted spread was even lower. Was that good or bad for the markets? When these conditions took place, lazy bears ended up pretty ...

 
Bund: Double Top Is Expected
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 - Feb 12, 2014

Bund held resistance at 143.65/70 then 144.05/10 for a selling opportunity. However, be aware that a break above 144.20 cannot beruled out and targets 144.30, possibly even a retest of 144.54/58 highs...