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By Padhraic Garvey US Treasury yields were tracking the probability for a March cut, but now tracking the regional bank performance. Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, but markets keep their...
Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11. In my opinion, after the secondary extreme inversion of the 10-2 yield curve in July a new yield curve steepener was in the bag. That is...
By Benjamin Schroeder US 5-year auction was rough, but Thursday's core PCE should be tame – what then? Likely yields lower, but only temporarily. The ECB takes centre stage with Lagarde...
By Benjamin Schroeder A large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...
By Benjamin Schroeder Markets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to...
By Benjamin Schroeder EUR curves bear flattened at the start of the week with the European Central Bank leaning against aggressive market pricing. The message remains consistent – much of the...
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate, based on the average of three models run by...
After a gentle disinflationary easing, the bond market could be hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread. A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or...
Macro investing without deeply understanding bond markets is like eating soup with a fork. You can still somehow make it, but it’s cumbersome and unproductive. We are at a crucial juncture for...
Just as interest rates are pulling back, one particular government rate appears to be nearing an important moment. The 10-Year Germany Bond yield. Above is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 10-year...
Several risk-on indicators surged higher into year-end, such as small-cap stocks and junk bonds. And as we typically see, this coincided with a big year-end stock market rally. Today, we take a look...
The US bond market has had a rough ride for much of the past two years, but the powerful rally over the last two months suggests the worst is over. Cherry-picking analytics from the recent crop of...
The past few years have seen interest rates soar. But perhaps it’s a case of too far, too fast. Today we look at interest rates in the form of treasury bond yields. And more specifically, the...
By Benjamin Schroeder What a week it's been. Central bank anticipation first. Then, evidence of a holiday party at the Fed. Followed by failed attempts from Frankfurt and London to poop that party....
By Benjamin Schroeder The surprise from the FOMC was partly the extra 25bp implied cut added to 2024, but it was more the lack of pushback from Chair Powell on the 2024 rate cut narrative. He almost...