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Bonds Analysis & Opinion

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5-Year T-Bill Cheapest In Years On Selloff
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 - Mar 26, 2014

The five-year treasury yield hit a multi-year high relative to the average of the two- and the ten-year rates (the 5-year treasury is cheap on a relative basis). The chart below shows a measure of how...

 
Schatz: Break Above 110.43 Is Positive
By 
 - Mar 26, 2014

Schatz beat 110.37 to hit our selling opportunity at 110.41/42. We topped exactly here and should struggle at this resistance again today. However a break above 110.43 is positive and targets ...

 
Bobl: Hit Target Of 125.39/45
By 
 - Mar 26, 2014

Bobl hit our target of 125.39/41 for a selling opportunity and topped exactly here. Overbought short term so we should struggle here again today. However a break higher cannot be ruled out and could ...

 
Bund: Overbought Short Term
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 - Mar 26, 2014

Bund continued higher to resistance at 143.25/30 and a high for the day as expected. We held on to 143.05/00 but below here adds pressure today and could test support at 142.81/77. A good chance of a...

 
CGB: Hits Selling Opportunity
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 - Mar 26, 2014

Ten-Year Government of Canada Bond hit our selling opportunity at 129.96/130.00. We over ran as far as 130.09 but only a close above the 200 day moving average at 130.06 is now seen as positive for ...

 
Gilts: Turned Lower
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 - Mar 26, 2014

Gilts unable to beat the 200 day moving average and turned lower as predicted breaking 109.72 to hit next target and support at 109.57/55. We bottomed exactly here as expected and a good chance we do...

 
Time For Bonds To Break Or Blow
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 - Mar 26, 2014

For the 4th time in recent memory, TLT is approaching its resistance level at 109.18. In this insanely-leveraged world of ours, our economic future relies largely on interest rates, so it’s going to ...

 
Treasurys Throw A Curve Ball
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 - Mar 26, 2014

I saw a story on MarketWatch on Monday which declared that the “Treasurys most sensitive to rising interest rates” had been ditched by investors while those investors instead were “gobbling up ...

 
Fear’s For The Other Guy: Embracing Higher Rates
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 - Mar 25, 2014

The recent trend in the media is to fear higher rates. Actually, history indicates that higher rates are correlated to higher economic growth as shown in Chart 1. But, it has never been about the ...

 
Stock Direction: Watch High-Yield Spreads
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 - Mar 25, 2014

High-yield funds are considered by many to be good leading indicators for the future direction of the stock market. Above are four high-yield funds (Not ETF's) that reflect a move higher this year: ...

 
Bond Prices Attempting Another Rally
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 - Mar 25, 2014

Bond prices have moved in a horizontal channel since the start of last month, but now there is a clear attempt at a breakout to the upside. The iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury ETF (ARCA:TLT), will ...

 
The Ever Evolving Asian Bond Market
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 - Mar 25, 2014

There is a pattern in the Asian corporate bond market and it is not a good one. They remain underdeveloped as compared to the Western peers. However there is a plan in the works to change this from ...

 
We’re The Government, And We’re Here To Help
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 - Mar 25, 2014

Today’s article will be brief (some might say blessedly so). The topic is the publication of an article on the NY Fed’s blog entitled “Convexity Event Risks in a Rising Interest Rate ...

 
Bund: Selling Opportunity At 142.80/82
By 
 - Mar 24, 2014

Bund struggled at 142.53/55 as expected and held below 142.65. Only above here would be seen as positive today and opens the door to a selling opportunity at 142.80/82. Stops on shorts above 142.90 ...

 
CGB: Hit Good Support At 129.30/25
By 
 - Mar 24, 2014

Ten-Year Government of Canada Bond hit good support at 129.30/25 and bottomed here as predicted. We look for a bounce from here again today but be aware a break lower should test March lows at ...

 
Gilts: Short Term Outlook Positive
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 - Mar 24, 2014

Gilts eventually beat 109.18/22 and closed above 109.43. Short term outlook is quite positive and we could continue higher today to 106.60/66 then a gap to fill at 109.75/80 for a selling opportunity...

 
Bobl: Outlook Quite Positive
By 
 - Mar 24, 2014

Euro BOBL recovery reached resistance at 125.04 and held here. We should struggle here again today with the outlook quite negative, but if we push higher look for 125.11 then a selling opportunity ...