Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The Fed is worried about low inflation. They should look at home prices, equities, junk bonds, and leveraged loans. 2017 was a banner year for debt. Spreads continue to collapse and the ease at which...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators sharply reduced their net positions in the 10 Year T-Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

Supposedly, the old-school Sicilian Mafia have a saying, “the snake lays coiled in Napoli” which supposedly means that in older Italy, when the Mafioso ran the country and the Mafia power...

Official inflation rates for the US are still low, but the Treasury market is expecting firmer pricing pressure in 2018.The implied inflation rate based on the yield spread for the nominal 10-year...

Perhaps the single biggest development this year, as far as the markets were concerned, was the Fed admitting on the record that it has no idea what is going on with inflation.This represents a kind...

In only a few days Santa will make his way around the world and into billions of homes where he will leave presents for good little boys and girls. This is a festive time of year. Parties, lights...

I came across a number of pieces lately from people voicing their concerns over the prospects for junk bonds. And there may be something to their concerns. Still, history appears to suggest that the...

By Pinchas CohenWhile retail traders may be aware of yesterday’s equity selloff, the real story is bonds which occupy the focus of institutional players. The normal market structure pits stocks...

US Treasuries are seeing action we have not seen for a while: Strong sharp steepening of the yield curve. The yield curve is said to steepen when the spreads between short-term and long-term rates...

The most recent tax-reform agreement between the US House of Representatives and US Senate is less hurtful to municipal bonds than initially expected. Here are some points.Private Activity Bonds...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large Treasury speculators increased their bullish net positions in the US 10-year Note futures markets this week following a sharp decline the...

The central bank is not the root cause of the boom-bust cycle. The root cause is fractional reserve banking (the ability of banks to create money and credit out of nothing). The central bank’s...

I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives.The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ)...

There are plenty of things available for people to worry about these days. I won’t even begin to list them out as they are too numerous to really mention. Interestingly though, one thing that I...