Bonds Analysis & Opinion

With the Fed making its last announcement of 2017 later today (and Yellen making her last press conference as a Fed member), it should be an interesting Wednesday. I thought I’d point out that...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large treasury speculators sharply cut back on their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...

The United States 30-Year bond's bearish flag formation.

US Treasuries ran higher from the first half of 2015, completing a 3 Drives pattern in the middle of 2016. This is a reversal pattern and Bonds did just that, reversed. They quickly gave up the entire...

US yields still above downtrend Original post

You do have to wonder to whom the increasingly shrill bond market declarations are being directed. It’s very likely that Bloomberg’s now daily haranguing “the yield curve can’t...

From BlackRock: Here’s the moment of truth for Matt Tucker’s predictions–higher interest rates, more inflation–for the 2017 bond market.Scorecard time! In January I laid out...

Long-term bond yields are rising with the 2-year rising more than the 30-year Treasury bill. So not only is this a boost for rising nominal yields, it is also a boost for the flattening yield curve....

The steady increase in the US two-year yield as the market unwinds rate-hike expectations in Australia have pushed the US rate above Australia's two-year yield for the first time since late 2000. In...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large speculators raised their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data...

The US two-year yield has risen nearly 57 bp so far this year. The Federal Reserve has hiked rates twice and is poised to raise the Fed funds target rate in a few weeks. The 10-year yield has fallen...

Futures positions imply a 92% chance the Fed will hike in Dec and 50% again in March. How will the yield curve respond?Let's start with a discussion of how the short-end of the yield curve will...

The yield curve has flattened considerably over the last year. Will it invert? Where? The following chart explains.US Treasury Yields 5-Year Duration and Shorter I created that chart Tuesday...

The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, which is widely viewed as a warning sign for the economy. The 10-year/2-year spread fell to 59 basis points on Tuesday (Nov. 21), the lowest in a decade....